City Observatory
@cityobservatory.bsky.social
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Original research and commentary on what matters for city success.
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City Observatory
Daniel Kay Hertz
1 day ago
This is a really revealing and rich passage in what is overall a really good piece. The reason nonprofits aren't producing more affordable housing isn't that they "can't operate at the scale of the federal government"āthey literally are operating at the scale of the federal government('s subsidies)
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City Observatory
Field of Schemes
about 15 hours ago
Even as Los Angeles commits to $193m a year in debt service for a convention center expansion, other cities' experience shows that the likelihood of any significant increase in LAās convention business is effectively nil.
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L.A. approves $2.6B convention center expansion, even as convention demand shrivels
There are boondoggles, there are big boondoggles, and then there are public development disasters. Los Angeles has just embarked on a disaster. Last week, the Los Angeles city council approved an expa...
https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2025/09/24/23173/l-a-approves-2-6b-convention-center-expansion-even-as-convention-demand-shrivels/
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The Interstate Bridge Replacement project is in serious trouble: IBR has taken almost five years in its environmental review--twice as long as its 2020 schedule called for. These delays now threaten billions in federal grants.
cityobservatory.org/ibr-federal-...
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IBR: Federal Funding in Jeopardy ā City Observatory
https://cityobservatory.org/ibr-federal-funding-in-jeopardy/
about 17 hours ago
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IBR: Federal Funding in Jeopardy
https://cityobservatory.org/ibr-federal-funding-in-jeopardy/
about 18 hours ago
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City Observatory
Blue Dot in Red State
5 days ago
Teddy R. knows...he speaks the truth. What do you think, Donold?
add a skeleton here at some point
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Ethan Kleinbaum
9 days ago
Did you know: On Lyndale Ave, average daily traffic has dropped dramatically over the last 20 years, according to MNDoT. Seems to me the county's Lyndale redesign ignores this information.
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City Observatory
Warren Wells, AICP
7 days ago
Most pedestrian crashes were on arterials. Even though the plurality were 2-lane roads, the increases were on 3, 4, and 5 lane roads. The biggest increase was at mid-block (i.e. non-intersection) locations.
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Should anyone believe IBR's claims to be on schedule? Today's legislative presentation (15 September) says they "anticipate" that this Hayden Island technical work will begin in "Q3 2025", which ends in two weeks.
olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2025S1/D...
9 days ago
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Greg Johnson claims that the Interstate Bridge Replacement never promised a ROD by 2023. Here, from his testimony to the same committee in 2020 is the plan showing IBR called for the NEPA process to be complete by Summer of 2023 (the green dot in the fourth row).
cityobservatory.org/ibr-falling-...
9 days ago
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IBR Greenwashing: Six slides showing proposed designs. Collectively they show 48 people walking, 6 on bikes, 1 light rail train, and a grand total of 3 cars. $7.5 billion for 127,000 cars a day.
9 days ago
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Greenwash galore to sell a $7.5 billion Interstate Bridge Replacement: Illustrations show 12 people walking, 3 on bikes, and only 2 cars. If these are the real proportions of users, why widen the highway? (Slide 18)
olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2025S1/D...
9 days ago
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More greenwashing of the Interstate Bride Replacement (IBR): Project renderings show only people, virtually no cars. This shows 25 pedestrians and one car for a project that spends $7.5 billion to widen a freeway for 127,000 cars. (Slide 17)
olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2025S1/D...
9 days ago
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City Observatory
Justin Fox
13 days ago
New Census data on working from home is out this week, and Santa Monica is No. 1! This is ranked by Public Use Microdata Data ā I explain why in my new column (gift link) ā but it also tops the list if you rank by cities.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Denial and declining traffic on the I-5 bridges
https://cityobservatory.org/denial-and-declining-traffic-on-the-i-5-bridges/
13 days ago
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City Observatory
Justin Wolfers
18 days ago
Lemme speak with directness and a sense of urgency about our most important economic threats, and what history teaches us about moments like this.
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City Observatory
Qagggy!
21 days ago
Traffic engineering is such a pseudoscience. The Ballard Bridge traffic study just assumed traffic would exceed capacity by 20% in 2040, which they call "crunch flow," and then worked backwards to a 1.2% annual increase.
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Jens von Bergmann
22 days ago
Right. We donāt regulate how many cars can get built, and with almost everyoneās need for their own private car satisfied most of the action is in the intensive margin. But thatās not the case for housing.
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Ken McLeod
22 days ago
"What problem is this solution trying to solve?" TLDR: 1) Want to spend more on transit? There are already no restrictions 2) States will abuse transfers to fund bad projects 3) Past increases in flexibility haven't led to better outcomes 4) This reduces accountability and transparency
add a skeleton here at some point
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So-called autonomous vehicles have already begun to master the most human of all driving skills: denying responsibility for crashes.
arstechnica.com/cars/2025/08...
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Tesla denied having fatal crash data until a hacker found it
The data was key evidence in the death of a pedestrian in 2019.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/08/how-a-hacker-helped-win-a-wrongful-death-lawsuit-against-tesla/
23 days ago
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City Observatory
Stephen Jacob Smith
25 days ago
Iām not sure if this is the case in Seattle, but the worst is when we load private development up with inclusionary zoning requirements (or even bonuses) for middle-income households. Then youāre actively harming the market, in order to subsidize people who could otherwise basically afford it.
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City Observatory
Stephen Jacob Smith
25 days ago
Subsidized housing in Seattle is more than 10% vacant, with rents often near market. And Seattle isnāt alone. We need to focus on making the market work for the top ~80% and focus subsidy at the very bottom, subsidized housing for all is a failed strategy.
www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...
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City Observatory
Giulio Mattioli
26 days ago
A few days ago, Berlin opened a new stretch of urban motorway, with the stated aim to reduce congestion. Today, the stretch was temporarily closed because of too much congestion.
add a skeleton here at some point
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š§µ THREAD: 10 things everyone should know about Oregon's transportation special session. ODOT wants to raise gas taxes 6Ā¢/gallon but LC 2 does NOTHING to stop the bait-and-switch that got us into this mess. 1/11
cityobservatory.org/ten-things-t...
#orleg
#orpol
25 days ago
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OregonDOT's budget is in crisis because of billions in cost overruns on megaprojects. We're told "Accountability" measures will fix it. Learn why ODOT accountability is a cynical joke--the product of consultants with blatant conflicts of interest
cityobservatory.org/oregon-dots-...
26 days ago
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Well, so much for day one of Oregon's Special Session. Seems like the Legislature is picking up transportation legislation right where they left off: in chaos. Bored legislators might want to read our analysis of LC 2 (now HB 3991):
cityobservatory.org/the-old-bait...
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The Old Bait and Switch ā City Observatory
The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) is asking to raise gas taxes 6 cents a gallon, and increase other fees, supposedly to cover shortfalls inĀ maintenance and operations.Ā But nothing inā¦
https://cityobservatory.org/the-old-bait-and-switch/
26 days ago
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ODOT is running their same old "bait and switch" tactics in Salem: Peddling potholes and plowing snow to get more revenue, then blowing it on megaprojects, consultants and cost overruns.
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The Old Bait and Switch ā City Observatory
The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) is asking to raise gas taxes 6 cents a gallon, and increase other fees, supposedly to cover shortfalls inĀ maintenance and operations.Ā But nothing inā¦
https://cityobservatory.org/the-old-bait-and-switch/
26 days ago
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City Observatory
Paul Krugman
26 days ago
And I was planning a quiet evening ...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergen...
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An Emergency non-Emergency Post
Holy tariff mess, Batman
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergency-non-emergency-post
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What OPB left out about the special session
https://cityobservatory.org/what-opb-left-out-about-the-special-session/
27 days ago
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Killing road pricing: Enviros get rolled again
https://cityobservatory.org/killing_road_pricing_climate/
28 days ago
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City Observatory
Councilmember Nithya Raman
29 days ago
Why is the rent so damn high in LA? Simple economics: the demand for housing is extremely high and our housing supply is extremely low.
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OregonDOT routinely--and falsely--pleads poverty when asked to pave potholes or plow roads; but just puts megaproject cost overruns on the credit card--cutting future revenues--making its financial problems worse. Ex: ODOT borrowed $280 million for Abernethy Bridge.
www.oregon.gov/odot/About/S...
30 days ago
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Ten Things to Know About the Transportation Package
https://cityobservatory.org/ten-things-to-know-about-the-transportation-package/
about 1 month ago
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"They [the Gov.& Legislature] have gone to great pains to explain to Oregonians just how vital ODOT maintenance crews are to safe transportation. . . . They should show that their rhetoric isnāt just a scare tactic by dedicating it to this critical mission." (5/5)
www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025...
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Editorial: Billions in new taxes should come with a commitment
While Gov. Tina Kotek's transportation tax proposal includes proposals to increase oversight of the Oregon Department of Transportation, the plan fails to provide basic accountability, the editorial b...
https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025/08/editorial-billions-in-new-taxes-should-come-with-a-commitment.html
about 1 month ago
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"If Kotek and legislative leaders want to genuinely build in accountability, they should explicitly commit to directing those funds to maintenance and operations." (4/5)
about 1 month ago
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" . . . the sheer size of this bill should compel legislators to add language that explicitly dedicates this new money to cover maintenance needs . . . " (3/5)
about 1 month ago
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". . . while ODOT has long claimed that legislative language limits how it can use highway project funds, itās worth noting that the current proposal lacks similar wording to prevent ODOT from using these new dollars to backfill whatever financial gap the agency needs to patch. "(2/5)
about 1 month ago
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"ODOT has a history of quietly moving funding around to prop up ever-escalating highway projects at the expense of other core responsibilities, such as preserving bridges. ODOT is also already using gas tax dollars to repay debt." (1/5)
www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025...
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Editorial: Billions in new taxes should come with a commitment
While Gov. Tina Kotek's transportation tax proposal includes proposals to increase oversight of the Oregon Department of Transportation, the plan fails to provide basic accountability, the editorial b...
https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025/08/editorial-billions-in-new-taxes-should-come-with-a-commitment.html
about 1 month ago
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City Observatory
Helen Jung
about 1 month ago
It's not surprising that the "accountability" portion of Gov. Kotek's transportation plan fails to provide actual accountability. If legislators are going to ram through billions in new taxes, they should make clearer commitments. Editorial:
www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025...
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Editorial: Billions in new taxes should come with a commitment
While Gov. Tina Kotek's transportation tax proposal includes proposals to increase oversight of the Oregon Department of Transportation, the plan fails to provide basic accountability, the editorial b...
https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025/08/editorial-billions-in-new-taxes-should-come-with-a-commitment.html
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City Observatory
Guy Berger
about 1 month ago
Book cover for the 2025 edition of the Communist Manifesto
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City Observatory
Doug Trumm
about 1 month ago
I do think it's a fair question: If Sound Transit is siting light rail almost exclusively snug up to freeways/highways, why not just make it BRT? Our rail investments should go where we're truly committed to creating great urban places to live. Not park & rides with a half-hearted TOD plan.
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OregonDOT claims it has to shortchange maintenance, because laws require it to spend money on megaprojects. But legislatures can change those laws to make O&M a priority: Rep. Shelley Boshart Davis:
www.facebook.com/shellyboshar...
about 1 month ago
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City Observatory
Joey Politanoš³ļøāš
about 1 month ago
the people of America cried out "IKEA is too cheap Mr. President! It is too easy for me to find affordable and utilitarian home furniture!" and the President lept into action
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Oregon DOT's accountability charade
https://cityobservatory.org/oregon-dots-accountability-charade/
about 1 month ago
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City Observatory
Undo Damage
about 1 month ago
To quote my friend Peter Park, every highway introduced into cities made the city worse and every highway removed from cities improved the city.
add a skeleton here at some point
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City Observatory
Todd Litman
about 1 month ago
My latest Bloomberg CityLab column. āWe Need a Reality Check on Crime, Safety and Transitā (
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
). Despite common assumptions, traveling by bus, subway or train is far safer than driving. How can transit agencies correct misinformation about the real risks?
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We Need a Reality Check on Crime, Safety and Transit
Despite common assumptions, traveling by bus, subway or train is far safer than driving. How can transit agencies correct misinformation about the real risks?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/how-transit-agencies-can-fight-the-fear-of-riding-public-transportation
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City Observatory
Justin Wolfers
about 1 month ago
Capitalism works when competition decides winners. The President is swapping market tests for political favorsāmates rates, not merit. It leads companies to spend more on K Street than R&D. The result: fewer breakthroughs, slower growth, and lower incomes. But it won't happen overnight.
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Justin Wolfers
about 1 month ago
You canāt bend reality; you can shatter trust. Politicized stats fool no oneāmarkets, the Fed, and CEOs will ignore propagandaābut they will all suffer without reliable data. Break the thermometer, and you still have a fever. And without reliable diagnostic tools, you won't get the right medicine.
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Caution: Scam Alert
https://cityobservatory.org/caution-scam-alert/
about 1 month ago
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A phony talking point: OregonDOT data actually don't show the state spends less on roads than other Western states, according to Willamette Week.
www.wweek.com/news/2025/08...
about 1 month ago
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City Observatory
David Zipper
about 1 month ago
"In terms of [crash] deaths per 100,000 population, the rates of deaths in the U.S are seven times higher than in Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom."
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Traffic Deaths Are Down, But U.S. Still Trails Other Wealthy Nations
The number of people killed in road crashes in the first three months of 2025 has decreased. It's the lowest estimated quarterly fatality rate in six years.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamohn/2025/08/14/traffic-deaths-are-down-but-us-still-trails-other-wealthy-nations/
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