I cannot *believe* we are arguing about WAR scores again. I am so tired. This does not matter to the underlying point, and I'm more interested in arguing about Casten's substantive point, with which I also disagree

What's an incumbency effect, we've never heard of that, that definitely couldn't impact the difference between raw overperformance and WAR scores.

Texas is very obviously a red state, that isn't an insult, and I hate the way candidates talk in primaries- today on the blog open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

release the report you cowards

We dropped at an AI poll yesterday at Searchlight! A lot of AI polling has been either very industry driven, or detached from the politics of it all, and I feel our work filled a real gap. The tl;dr is: people want this regulated. Now. www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/ame...

Is it worth a whole blog post to explain why "a blue state" is a term with meaning and is not the same thing as "a state Democrats might win" or should I just save my breath and non crockettpost

New from me at Searchlight- Voters have a pretty dour view of the state of government and corruption

I'm going to walk into the sea ☺️

Happy Thanksgiving! If you're making cocktails, consider this one (but don't make my mistakes) open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

Today on the blog: Democrats should run weirder campaigns, and people with clever ideas should go run a long shot state legislative campaign open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

Seems like someone could do a better more deeply reported story on this!

It is positively insane to primary challenge Golden from his left! www.bangordailynews.com/2025/11/05/o...

virgin bsky poster: all that really matters is vibes and fighting for something, poll-testing is the death of campaigns chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question

Have we not learned that day after the election posts like this are usually wrong. Exit polls are bad, rapidly calculating vote by demographic is hard to impossible, please chill out

“Given all the notes he struck during the campaign, it is revealing to consider those Mamdani left unplayed. One in particular stands out: Throughout the mayoral run, Mamdani rarely spoke about climate change — often doing so only when directly asked.” heatmap.news/politics/zoh...

Super interesting thread! This accounting of what's likely to happen doesn't quiiiite match up with voter perceptions of what's likely to happen. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

"don't post about voter registration trends" is the new "don't post about early vote"

Raids inside day cares had been off limits until this year, when, on his first day in office, President Donald Trump removed that protection. The arrest reportedly took place in front of children. 19thnews.org/2025/11/chil...

also shoutout to our partner on this media analysis, Nontoxic Media, for many things but especially teaching me the many many ways transcribing can misspell "Mamdani"

NEW from @searchlightinst.bsky.social What did Zohran Mamdani *say* and what did voters *hear*? We analyzed hundreds of videos from all the NYC mayoral candidates, and then we asked voters what *they* thought the election was about. 🧵

The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened. www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...

Democrats sweep three supreme court elections in Pennsylvania, defeating high-profile Republican bid to unseat them. They won large statewide victories, centered largely on the court’s role in defending voting and abortion rights. boltsmag.org/pennsylvania...

See our AAPOR report on 2024 poll accuracy that was released last week!

1. Don't try to win 2. ?????? 3. Dramatic reforms Sure, I bet that'll work. I understand that trying to win is the boring bit, but you've gotta do that first.

Reupping this: I'm fundraising for food banks, as SNAP is set to expire, send me a receipt for a $50 donation to your local food bank or to Share our Strength, and I’ll send you a book recommendation.

wow you're telling me kat is smart enough to not discuss ongoing criminal litigation

One of the curses of being a sci-fi nerd right now is having read the same books as half the tech people who are talking up their ideas of the future, and being stuck going "hang on I know what book that's from". Today, some examples of that. open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

I find this all kind of depressing- if it's all perfectly determined by external factors, then what does it matter what anyone does? If you believe this you should be hyper focusing on how to do policy that doesn't just get torn down immediately.

I don't want to get into a fight with Literally Everyone about the Welcome PAC paper, but I do have an interpretive note the people writing it are really, really mad at Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer they are not writing it to defend those people but to castigate them

In our housing poll, people also thought new housing would increase crime. The spectre of crime is present on so many issues (and voters do not seem to understand that crime is in fact down)

An interesting and serious research report that is worth reading! deciding-to-win.org Example: On the persuasion/mobilization issue that so often divides factions within parties

Really interesting work (and thoughts on experimental design)!

I mean this is viscerally upsetting because it's really genuinely him treating the white house like it's his own personal property; he's the king and it's his palace. No other president ever thought like this, even if they were a fucking horrible person, because it goes against our founding creed

Huge day for the WAR/overperformance nerds. This piece gets into the weeds.

This admin manages to be both bad and incredibly embarrassing at the same time

If money in politics skews government , shouldn't we see evidence in my favorite no campaign finance limits state, Virginia? And do we? I tried using VA as a test case, and looked for potential impacts of unlimited spending on taxes, social spending, labor laws, and more.

Ended up writing a whole post about this- I kinda think this analysis is missing the bigger point re: focus open.substack.com/pub/searchli...

Every time I get frustrated by chaos in the broad liberal coalition, Republicans go and do some shit like this and remind me that everyone i argue with is at least trying to make the world better, usually pretty nice, and not nearly this gross

Oof. Yikes! Not good!

The #1 piece of advice that TransLink's CEO offers other North American transit agencies: Provide frequent service

People don't believe that Democrats want them to have a good life

Today: arguing that Sherrill might lose in NJ, and also why you probably shouldn't put too much faith in that guess (or any guess). Come stare at graphs, on the blog open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

This whole NY policy debate kind of blows my mind given that I recently disconnected and reconnected our gas range. It was a little annoying (like, a good wrench, some leverage, the right pipe tape) but not *hard*.

Great poll result from a very good @lakshya.splitticket.org piece today in The Argument. A lot of people think AI has been good for them but bad for others. www.theargumentmag.com/p/chatgpt-an...

Analytics and polling folks: I'll be at the Harvard political analytics conference this Friday if you want to get coffee or something

you know the autism tylenol announcement is a complete embarassment because even the most sycophantic trump fans out there aren’t even talking about it seriously

1. Searchlight has a new poll out this morning, on battleground voters and climate change. The topline finding is that voters just really do not prioritize fixing climate change, especially compared to other issues 🧵

It's so bad that the most rapid fire communications lots of people see are fundraising slop

I have so much happening this morning!! 1. On the Searchlight website, our new housing poll. It is extremely a mixed bag. Plus toplines and xtabs for your enjoyment www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/wha...

This is a massive, history making abuse of your power. It will define your legacy and one day you will come to regret punishing free speech and trying to destroy democracy.