I believe mine is 4

Thank you all experts for explaining "why BLS can't just ask people whether they were unemployed in Oct for the household survey" to me And this one from Erika is a clear and definite one if you like a TLDR

December meeting is going to be so messy. Outside of times like 2020, labor market deterioration plays out over months, not weeks. Unlikely the claims data in between now and then is going to be a slam dunk case for cutting or holding.

If you wanted one chart that would make me continue to say that the pandemic policy response and tradeoffs thereafter were worth it (from a macro perspective) this would probably be it. Sustained periods of v v high prime-age EPOP are rare!

New Indeed posted wage growth data out yesterday -- 2.38% year on year, a new low in this cycle

FOMC October Minutes "Several" vs. "Many"

PPI next Tuesday Nov 25 October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9) October Jobs day canceled November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)

seeing eggs down to 18/$3. economy is fixed

A questioner asks Fed governor Waller about Trump's "rather non scientific arguments" for cutting interest rates. Waller, on the short list for Fed chair, says "I'm not gonna touch that one."

Waller saying that neither the "September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks" are likely to deter him from supporting a December cut

very disgusting www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Okay, so maybe I wasn't too mean to him ...

Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate This streak dies tomorrow Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months This blind spot will remain forever

who will step up to be the birder on the fomc

A busy first day as your Mayor-elect: early morning interviews, transition announcements and meetings. More to say on all of it tomorrow. But a highlight was lunch with my Congresswoman @aoc.bsky.social at Laliguras Bistro in Jackson Heights.

Ironically, I collaborated with several Gates-funded scientists some years ago in a study showing that climate change will potentially expose millions more in the highland regions of Africa to Malaria transmission. Press release here: www.psu.edu/news/researc...

New frontiers in fiscal stimulus

The future of discourse

Cook sees current policy as "moderately" restrictive; " I believe that the downside risks to employment are greater than the upside risks to inflation."

I’m crying www.semafor.com/article/10/2...

I was surprised to see powell call this stabilizing (or whatever term he used)

Powell saying there were 'strongly disagreeing views' about a December cut

uhhh why is bea.gov down

Simon is correct here! The stats background is only required if you want to type "correl var1 var2"

‪ The top comments on the Mamdani message to Muslim video are all "I'm not a Muslim, I'm Jewish / Indian / Japanese / Latino and this message really speaks to me" www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGBQ...

what in the world procyclinguk.com/alison-jacks...

Wolves found only north of the Saint Lawrence River in Canada reduce animal-related vehicle collisions by 5 percentage points—providing an empirical quantification of quasi-option value, from Eyal G. Frank, Anouch Missirian, Dominic P. Parker, and @jenraynor.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34377

Looking forward to the next adp number

Biege book is out "labor cost pressures intensified in recent weeks due to outsized increases in employer-sponsored health insurance expenses." "Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied. "

September CPI will be released in two weeks on Friday, Oct 24, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET to accommodate the SSA COLA adjustments despite the government shutdown. Jobs report won't be released though www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...

The Indeed Wage Tracker growth rate has fallen a full percentage point year-to-date. Hard to see signs of re-acceleration here.

NEW: The Supreme Court *refuses* to let Trump fire the Fed's Lisa Cook—for now. Instead, the court agrees to hear the case in January. Cook may continue to serve in the meantime.

Spoke with Boston Fed chief Collins after her NYC speech and she cautioned against aggressive rate cuts: Cutting rates “too quickly and certainly announcing, oh yeah, we're just going to…keep going until we get to neutral, that seems to me to be a scenario where the risks to inflation go up."

The Department of Labor has released its plan in the event of a government shutdown. Key takeaway for econ data: There will NOT be a jobs report on Friday (or any subsequent data releases) if funding isn't restored in time. #NumbersDay #EconSky www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov...

Just wrapped up 500ish miles of the Oregon backcountry

New frontiers in fiscal stimulus

off season is here... we're so back

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence. Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more... www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

o7 to the real deep state

hey it's me

TYFYATTM

Hard to concentrate on jobs day when two stilt sandpipers were spotted in renton

Hotel wifi is a bit spotty so jobsposting may be slow today for me Soft report (I wouldn't say disastrous) but things going in the wrong direction Starting to see construction employment falling #NumbersDay

Miran arguing that you can't criticize his revolving door movement b.t. White House and Fed b/c his fed proposals are a package proposal, can't view that in isolation Not a view he held when he made similar criticisms of brainard and goolsbee long before his fed reform paper

"Roth said ... the government isn’t arguing that the “for cause” protection is invalid. But he said that deciding what qualifies as cause to be fired is within the president’s discretion and not something a court can question." That's not a protection, then. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

🚨Border Patrol arrested two firefighters who were actively fighting a wildfire at the time. When the other members of the crew asked for a chance to say goodbye, a Border Patrol agent told the crew member “you need to get the f*ck out of here. I’m going to make you leave.”