Might I suggest this plot for tomorrow’s daily feature @akrherz.bsky.social - over six hours of sustained blizzard conditions at PVD and JFK this morning!

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

Your wish is my command - the super ensemble viewer is back online! Just go to the "superensemble" tab for any storm that has it. The static images are back for most plots - I'll add the interactive viewer and a few other plots in the coming days. polarwx.com/tropical/?st...

Pretty neat radar evolution w/ #Gabrielle which rapidly intensified into a Cat 4 #hurricane today. An eyewall replacement cycle occurred, but instead of the typical cycle of the inner replacing the outer eyewall, it appears the two eyewalls merged & did not interrupt continued intensification.

To complement excellent graphics like the one Brian provided (see quoted post), I crafted a storm-following animation of Hurricane Katrina (2005) using NOAA's half-hourly, 4-km multi-satellite merged infrared dataset called Merged IR.

#Hurricane #Erin has just become a Category 5 hurricane (140 kt / 917 mb). Earliest known occurrence of Cat 5 in open Atlantic (outside Caribbean & Gulf). Rapid Intensification (+75 kt in 24h!) To illustrate how remarkable this period of #RI has been check out this WV 18 hour animation below ⤵️

Tampa, FL reached 100 degrees today, the first such instance in the station's recorded data thread since 1890. How did this happen? On the synoptic scale, an anomalous upper-level ridge traversing the region from east to west: (1/3)

Not hard to see what is causing the abrupt uptick in convective activity in the Central & East Pacific. A potent Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave, #CCKW, has been marching eastward, activating the #ITCZ. This convection may aid #ITCZ breakdown, with 3️⃣ areas being monitored for #TC formation.

It's been a bit since I've done a meteorological deep dive, but the devastating flash #flood in central Texas this July 4th/5th deserve a closer look. #TXwx Yes remnants of #Barry were involved helping enhance moisture. A remnant MCV from Mexico on 3 July also played a role. Full evolution below ⤵️

Today was the last day at NOAA for hundreds of employees who took an early retirement offer. Collectively, an estimated 27,000 years of experience left the agency. It goes without saying they will be missed. Their decades of service is commendable & appreciated. m.youtube.com/watch?v=Si-R...

Saw a post from @vortexjeff.bsky.social on The Other Site, and was interested to understand how one would advect such an impressive EML into northwestern Oregon. If I ran HYSPLIT correctly (perhaps a tenuous assumption), it looks like the source region was somewhere in the northern Sierra.

AguaceroWx FREE OPEN BETA is LIVE for limited time! Already have an account? Go to aguacerowx.com/app. Need to register? Visit aguacerowx.com/register. We welcome your feedback! Join our discord here to get updates/make suggestions! discord.gg/HxkzgbrFjt

Contiguous U.S. winter temperature categories. 25% of the Lower 48 is in some shade of red and 15% is in some shade of blue. This is in comparison to the 1991-2020 climate normal period - which is quite a bit warmer than previous periods.

Note from coolwx.com

Very encouraging. What is even happening anymore

That’s the Constitution mate. The literal Constitution

All probationary federal employees at NOAA’s EMC that’s responsible for keeping all US weather model systems running have been fired with 1 hours notice. And that includes me and colleagues. We will not go quietly because we care about the NOAA mission to protect the public.

First post in a good bit: Eyeing the third week of March for a serious ramp up in severe weather across the US. MJO stalls & strengthens in the Maritime Continent without competing forcing in the WHEM beginning mid month and lasting perhaps longer than a week.

@brandonskalniak.bsky.social has been helping me with weather history for a while now. He recently completed his Radar Museum with 5319 entries. Please, have a look! www.brandoweather.com/radar-museum

The PDF that detailed NOAA’s Radar Next Program was deleted by Executive Order www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...

Snow easing but not over. How much more we project: North of Beltway: 0.5-1.5" Near Beltway: ~ 2" South of Betlway: 2-3" This would bring totals to 1.5 to 4.5" N of Beltway, 5 to 7" near Beltway and 6-11" to south. Yes, a boom for some. More info at cwg.live

Reminder that if there is a government shutdown, some NOAA websites like NCEI (ncei.noaa.gov, archived weather databases) and PSL (psl.noaa.gov) are likely to be offline — if you rely on them, the next few days are a good time to download data you need.

For the first time in quite a while, December looks to be off to a colder than average start in the eastern United States. The biggest difference vs. past Decembers? The absence of troughing anchored over the Northeast Pacific & Northwest US, which has been present in almost every recent December.

Worth recapping how remarkable last two weeks have been in the WPAC with #TC activity. 4️⃣ #Typhoons ( #Yinxing, #Toraji, #Usagi, #Man-Yi ) hit the #Philippeans in just *9️⃣* days!!!! Unprecedented in modern records. 3 of the typhoons were Cat 4 or stronger! The full two week animation is below 👇

I plan to eventually transfer my website from my old OU host to a separate server, but in the meantime, I wrote a detailed blog post about the challenges of forecasting Tropical Storm Sara and what went wrong: arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/blog/p...

Trends within a subtle steering regime are hard to ignore with #99L. It wasn’t clear how much influence the distant weak TUTT would exert on track, but subtropical ridging is now forecast to build in stronger and faster - which in turn lowers the intensity ceiling.

Super-ensemble plots are now running live for invest 99L. Confidence is growing in a hurricane which may directly impact Central America. Potential impacts in Florida depend on its track and intensity. More invest 99L model data on my site: arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/produc...

It is remarkable to see how quickly #Rafael's polar outflow channel has opened up today as the upstream ridge as finally progressed eastward. Such dramatic outflow expansion can be an important RI indicator, which fits well with today's trends.

Complex synoptic setup ahead for the upcoming TC in the western Caribbean. As the upstream ridge over E CONUS progresses eastward and anticyclonic outflow from #97L expands, the primary shortwave trough will cutoff and retrograde to the SW, creating a favorable UL environment for RI.

I do think quite a few tornadoes will occur overnight across Oklahoma in association with the WAA regime - there could be a couple tornadic prefrontal supercells followed by a maturing, very efficient tornado-producing QLCS. Look out for squall line interactions especially. (1/3)

Some of the coolest mesovortices you will ever see inside the eye of #KongRey back on Tuesday. What a fascinating storm. #wxsky

An important part of our Caribbean TCG potential will be a shortwave entering the gulf in a couple days & making its way into the northern Caribbean by the end of the week. The amplitude and placement of this feature is vital - e.g. the Euro solution wouldn’t favor TCG with how far south it is.

Sifted through center dropsonde pressure data for #Milton this morning - pretty interesting! Using a couple data points from the midday mission and a few from the evening post-peak mission, I also interpolated a peak pressure of ~894.7 mb at ~21z using a quadratic regression with r^2=0.998. #wxsky

Warm seclusion activities @drmetwatch.bsky.social

A few graphics regarding the synoptic setup that accompanies likely TCG in the Caribbean #tropicswx #wxsky (1/3)

Microwave passes showing really obvious near-complete ERCs are really cool. That outer eyewall is ginormous! #Kristy

A potential STC developing underneath an upper low in the north Pacific seems to have gone under the radar! Look out for a cool swirl in the next couple days.

Just as a side note, it's been wild to watch how frequently convection pulses up and down within the CDO of #Oscar during its 24 hours as a TC so far. The sustenance of a remarkably compact core is something to behold!

Hey @burgwx.bsky.social this looks awfully similar to a graph about a year ago!

🎉PUBLISHED and open access: check out my latest paper on cell mergers and storm interactions here: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal... Can the positions of nearby cells/mergers help us discriminate between tornadic, non-tornadic, and hail-producing supercells? We find evidence for "yes".

After an active time for TCs in the eastern hemisphere over the next week or so, the MJO is forecast to propagate rather quickly into the western Atlantic around the tail end of the month. The WCAR is climatologically favored, so keep an eye out for the first week of November w/ warming SSTs.

Switching over to tropics for a second, the MLC associated with #95L is becoming more likely to cross into the EPAC in a few days, and re-development looks rather probable in the medium range.

Oh yeah I figure I should post some of my cool sky pics or whatever. None of these feature a blue sky!

Two periods of record-breaking tropical cyclone activity, each one marked by historic category 5 hurricanes. In between, a record-breaking dearth of tropical activity. The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season sure threw us a curveball.

Looks like a synoptically appetizing setup for NM on Friday, if it wasn't for extremely marginal thermos! Lift arrives after dark per RAP - wouldn't rule out a couple tornadoes in the narrow region of favorability with a moistening boundary layer overnight.

Is this bluesky's version of that circle thing we had on wxtwitter? Obligatory 10M users post to fit in...