Pleased to report I will be seeing HEAT (1995) in 35mm on Friday

Sunrise on Ragasa - what a storm

You versus the TC she tells you not to worry about

Supertyphoon Ragasa now fixed at a mind-blowing 922 hPa/140kts and displaying structure indicative of this extreme strength. IR is making me think of that famous "skull" image from Matthew

Textbook rapid intensification ongoing with Typhoon Ragasa in the WPAC. Meteorological perfection.

One last diving clip :) Cenote Dreamgate on Saturday #mexico #cenotes #diving

Got to check Devil's Throat in Cozumel off the bucket list yesterday - incredible dive.

Cenote Aktun-Ha (Car wash) in Tulum this morning

Beautiful day in Cozumel

Master's thesis defense tomorrow, any tips?

It’s rough rn

Virtual memory was a mistake Safari should not be permitted to use more memory than I have RAM on my machine

Somehow, I managed to already craft a quick video from today’s tornado intercept near Sauk City. One of the closest encounters with a tornado I’ve ever had. Hope you find it as wild as I do! #wiwx #tornado www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfEu...

Group server is down so my plan to write my entire thesis tonight is looking shaky

Sneaky chance for a tornado along the warm front in Southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Many convective allowing models have been advertising some UH tracks through the area. This seems like a fair notion, as gravity waves breaking down into TCU on satellite indicate instability and MKX VWP has

A happy Chugwaterversary to @donkeydownburst.bsky.social

Everyone congratulate @nickmesa.bsky.social for phenomenal master’s defense!!

Some radar trickery in Manhattan this morning - tall buildings in Midtown are blacked out on lowest TWDR tilt, but looking up a tilt reveals moderate to heavy rain.

Cool to watch the 0 isodop shift from a SW-NE orientation to more N-S as the forward flank of supercell approaches KLBB.

Just a phenomenal example of a textbook tornado supercell in western Texas ongoing right now. Classic hook echo, gargantuan mesocyclone, and an extraordinarily impressive ZDR signature likely indicative of giant hail.

Sad to report the Ballmer Peak does not translate to mathematical skill from my experimentation

Last night’s CME hit well into the sleepy hours of the night. I took a swing at them, but the smoke was entirely unworkable. Guess I’ll have to keep waiting some more for October 10 skies like this. #aurora #northernlights #photography #landscape #landscapephotography #astro #borealis

Optimistic for chances of auroral activity across CONUS over next 48 hours. M8 flare produced impressive CME beginning at about 01:00 UTC in below loop. It's classified as a "full halo" given its expanse entirely around the sun, meaning at least some of the ejecta is heading directly toward Earth.

Extended range modeling is starting to show the first hints of activity in the tropical Atlantic this season. Weak MJO pulse likely impetus for this signal, but dynamical modeling is inconsistent with its evolution - something to watch, but chances of development are pretty low in my estimation.

24 (2001-2010) season 2 has some of my favorite writing in a TV action serial out there. So great

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Tornado near Arnett, Oklahoma

I don't think I have much to add to the forecast thoughts today that hasn't already been said, but I do like to write things out. From a synoptics perspective, it's hard to get more textbook than this. Beautiful upper wave ejecting from the Four Corners region over sharp dryline + deep surface low.

Arrived to Greensburg, Kansas ahead of an impressive looking severe weather setup. Stay weather aware today in the central Plains!!

Forecast thoughts from Guymon, Oklahoma this morning. At the surface, pocket of Tds > 65 across N TX advecting north/northwestward. Cirrus associated with 300 hPa wave will hopefully clear the area by early afternoon, allowing for a couple hours of insolation.

First chasecation in a while starting tomorrow through Tuesday!! Heading to Guymon tonight

Was always curious why storms moving out of Missouri into W IL struggled more with tornado production compared to those in SE IA on 3/31/23. Pet theory was that boundary layer was still somewhat stable in WRN IL.

Impressed with severe weather chances across upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Guidance suggests an extremely potent wave impinging on the area, providing impressive support for ascent over a deeply moist boundary layer. Differences remain with timing, but I expect a noteworthy event.

Latest EC seasonal forecast is out, and paints a similar picture to what most forecasting groups have been anticipating for TC activity - slightly above average, with ENSO somewhere in a neutral state. Big difference between this year and past couple is SSTs returning toward climatological average.

Vibes rn

the country is losing a lot of truly dedicated public servants this week. They spent careers improving weather forecasts, connecting people with needed information, or other roles that brought a spirit of service to government. Losing them early may save a few $, but isn’t making the nation richer.

Going to preface this by saying this is *not* an excuse to take the severe threat anything less than seriously. However, 1900UTC RAOB from MPX has some thermals that I feel would be *extremely* hostile to any tornadogenesis prospects. We'll see.

Extraordinarily complex forecast across the upper Midwest today. From a synoptic perspective, the ingredients are certainly in place for widespread severe weather. A deep surface low <996 hPa is centered across E ND, coupled with an expansive plume of high quality moisture + some backed sfc winds.

Intrigued by the possibility of a chase today in NW KS/W NE. From a synoptics perspective, it looks tasty. Tds >56 already extending to the NE/CO border (Morning fog in FoCo always a ‼️) , and 500 hPa wave will serve to rapidly deepen a sfc low across E CO as well as provide some forcing for ascent.

I'm #late but virtual chase target today would be Hobbs, NM. Boundary from earlier convection over Texas panhandle is drifting southwestward, and has a favorable orientation for storms initiating off high terrain further west + proximity to higher-quality moisture and enough sun for destabilization.

Kyle Kuzma thinks he has a 34 on his jersey

Kinda need to go see SINNERS (2025) again

PhD Timeline xkcd.com/3081

Recently got some film back - some Utah for your Monday morning

Welcome back Verstappen 2021 line LMAO

This is insane

We're so so so so so so back

Doing a class project on 3/14 tornado outbreak so I get to make some pretty graphs - RTMA dewpoint/wind + ERA5 MSLP 12:00 UTC 3/14 to 12:00 UTC 3/15

Really sad to hear this news - I'm really proud of all the work we've been doing on this project and think this has the potential to be a transformative technology