this is the simple answer to people who keep saying NATO expansion matters. Sure, it matters because it presented an obstacle to Russian imperial ambitions. Putin didn't invade because he hated NATO expansion, he hated NATO expansion because he wanted to invade

It's an unusual form of isolationism...

Merry Christmas, shitter was full!

New post out: @ldfreedman.bsky.social talks to @kschake.bsky.social - who's worked at senior levels in the US defense and state departments - on how the military should deal with Trump, Hegseth and illegal orders. (Free to read) samf.substack.com/p/the-state-...

Information Office of the PRC State Council furiously scribbling down notes on how you roll out the public announcement of a blockade

...Happy Hanukkah?

wrote this week about a topic there's surprisingly little coverage of in the United States even in think tanks focused on the Chinese military: the everyday lives of Chinese soldiers. foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/16/c...

*looking for the land Venezuela stole from the United States*

“The white paper outlined this plan without deference to or even acknowledgement of U.S. sensitivities, likely putting China on a collision course with the United States in the region in the months and years ahead.” thediplomat.com/2025/12/chin...

#OTD 1907: The Great White Fleet departs Hampton Roads, Va. to circumnavigate the world in 14 months, a journey of 43,000 miles that included 20 port calls across six continents.

At least there's a solid rebuttal to that gawdawful Harrison Kass piece about getting rid of the Marine Corps thehill.com/opinion/nati...

China to fall out of Germany’s top five export destinations for first time since 2010 – Reuters: ‘dropping to seventh place as shipments decline 10% to 81 billion euros ($95.04 billion) this year’ ‘as imports from [China] rise more than 7% to around 168 billion euros, accounting for 12% of all’

Great piece by Chris Miller: “The Trump administration’s offer of economic inducements misses the point. Russia doesn’t want a business deal, it wants Ukraine: a building block of Mr. Putin’s new sphere of control and a victory that could humiliate the West and demonstrate his great-power status."

The man suspended enforcement of the foreign corrupt practices act for gods sake. What possible reason could you have for doing that if not “doing corruption”?

My assessment of the Trump national security strategy: "it sees the United States’ adversaries as partners in that war, but it does not see how much U.S. power relies on the voluntary assistance of other countries."

Those that can erect protectionist barriers will do so. Those that cannot will be hollowed out by Beijing.

Seeing a leader of the United States adopt this line is revolting. While the US remains imperfect, it is also the global leader in FDI as well as the world’s leading destination for inbound investment. China would love to have an economy like America’s.

The thing about this is that it makes a real nice place to live.

Dude, you're the incumbents, the only message that works for you is prices actually going down

Government of posters facing a crisis: what if the solution was more posting

Everyone I know that makes something in a critical industry. Also most people I know that work on economic security issues. Argue against the implementation, the power grab by the executive, the active and apparently intentional harm to alliances, sure.

We’re talking a lot about Korean and Japanese shipbuilding, which are excellent but I am still not clear how much capacity they have. Why isn’t shipbuilding coming up more in the public discourse around the India trade talks?

Weirdly I hear it in personal conversations with lots of people but few people are saying out loud that they think Trump’s trade policy is directionally correct, if poorly and boorishly executed.

You could call it a violation of humanitarian law or any one of several other things. But this is not an armed conflict, unless internal legal justification is using that as an excuse (we don’t know, which is also wrong.). War crimes have a definition and words mean things.

Well, this sucks.

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed. I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization. A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

Spencer Cox: "I want you look at how Utahns reacted the last two nights. There was no rioting. There was no looting. There were no cars set on fire. There was no violence. There were vigils and prayers and people coming together to share their humanity. And that I believe is the answer to this."

The difference between 12 year old Blake visiting a warship and 42 year old Blake visiting a warship is 30 years. Same excitement. HMAS Sydney, I'll see you tomorrow.

Fresh picks for your summer reading list — recommended by our writers, contributing editors, and staff. warontherocks.com/20...

Taiwan’s defence minister says this year’s Han Kuang military drills will involve largest reservist call-up – AFP

People have yelled at me for reasons I can't entirely fathom when I've pointed this out before, but both Canada (North Warning System) and Denmark (SSPARS) have incredible leverage; cutting off the feeds from either system would be a six alarm fire in Omaha, Colorado Springs, and elsewhere

First, they came for Mark Zaid's security clearance, and I did not speak out, because I was not Mark Zaid Second, and then, uh, third they continued to keep taking Mark Zaid's security clearance and I was like "WTF man?"

Firing this many Department of Defense workers at once, who will now desperately need new sources of income, is a huge gift to enterprising foreign intelligence agencies looking for info on the US military and defense sector

Art of War was a manual for 5th century BC noble failsons to prevent them from losing the entire army to diarrhea. This is why it appeals so much to oligarch failsons of the 21st century AD.

If you see this, post a gif from one of your comfort shows

Unlike many O-4s, I had a strong Resting Skeptical Face before my hinge lobotomy.

NARRATOR: His power was unchecked.

Jeez one week on the job and David Sacks already lost the AI race to Beijing.

So much of the MAGA philosophy can be boiled down to taking semi-decent or reasonable policy proposals and executing them like a complete assh*le. Making friends and influencing people, it is not.

Offered with no commentary.

His majesty’s government would like a word, methinks

On the value of Twitter, btw - We had similar traffic from Bluesky, where the FT has 300 thousand followers, to what came from Twitter, where we supposedly have 6 million.

Always a good sign when the policy experts are like "who are these people" and the poasters are like "oh yeah I know that guy."

This is a tough one, despite my priors being fairly sympathetic to Milley’s predicament on a moral level. Civil-military dynamics in US political life have been trending in a dangerous direction, and I agree that the upshot here is largely a net negative. This is an area where things will get worse.

Sure is a bad time to be a person who cares about things.

Lmao not TikTok openly posting pro Trump messages when he was the one who started the TikTok ban in the first place.

That’s it. All of Silicon Valley goes into a holding facility where they’re taught 8th grade civics and a basic undergrad curriculum of logic and philosophy. They can go free when they’re no longer insane. This has to stop. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/m...

World Economic Outlook (IMF) 2024 2025 2026 🌍 3.2 3.3 3.3 🇮🇳 6.5 6.5 6.5 🇨🇳 4.8 4.6 4.5 🇷🇺 3.8 1.4 1.2 🇺🇸 2.8 2.7 2.1 🇪🇺 0.8 1.0 1.4 www.imf.org/-/media/File...