War termination negotiations often seem chaotic, but there is an underlying structure to them. I’ve tried to capture developments step-by-step in my series on the U.S.-Israel-Iran War for Parley Policy. Here’s my latest⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/the-whi...

With the White House stepping up its commentary on negotiations with Tehran, some folks may be wondering what to make of it all. Here is my explainer ⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/breakin...

How is it that the U.S. & Iran could go from escalating threats to potential war termination talks? My latest analysis breaks down the early dynamics of the negotiation cycle that's at play here and how third parties can help (or hurt). Read more here⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/breakin...

Trying to make sense of what we're seeing related to negotiations between the U.S. & Iran? Here's my breakdown of the state of play via Parley Policy⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/breakin...

This is pretty cool from One Piece's Eiichiro Oda: Tony Tony Chopper--doctor for the Straw Hat pirates crew--is now an "official supporter" of Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders).

What is the state of play in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations? The Iran war has changed the negotiating paradigm, and if twice-delayed trilateral negotiations don't happen soon, the whole process may be derailed. More from me here (via @kyivpost.com)⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/72142

Japan has long sought to position itself as a conflict mediator, albeit with mixed results. With renewed calls for Tokyo to step up diplomatically amidst the ongoing Iran War, it will have to face down familiar challenges. I explain (via @japantimes.co.jp)⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03...

President Trump has specifically named Japan as a country that will "hopefully" send ships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. This will assuredly be a topic of discussion in the forthcoming summit between Trump and Sanae Takaichi.

My first deployment to Afghanistan taught me the costs of war. My second taught me the absurdity of it. Sometimes, war is necessary. But once you’ve seen it up close, you also see how often the policy logic underpinning it breaks down.

"War is war. Hell is hell. And of the two, war is a lot worse...There are no innocent bystanders in hell." My grandpa--a veteran of three wars--watched the program every night. I would watch it with him. This scene always stayed with me. Even more so when I experienced war firsthand.

From my analysis published four days ago: "The Netanyahu administration will continue pushing for what it sees as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for regime change in Iran. It will take active efforts from the United States to restrain Israel." Netanyahu today⬇️

Exercise FREEDOM SHIELD kicked off in earnest on the Korean Peninsula today. Some argue that these exercises raise tensions. Others maintain that they are necessary tools for readiness. I break down the debate in my latest for @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/breaking...

The Takaichi administration has demonstrated speed and effectiveness in the evacuation of Japanese nationals from countries affected by the U.S.-Israel-Iran War. My latest for @japantimes.co.jp explains more⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03...

The Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations that were supposed to happen 5-6 March have been delayed due to the U.S.-Israel-Iran War. A few days ago, I wrote about the consequences of the principal mediator being embroiled in a separate conflict with Iran⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/71043

Many negotiations fail because people get locked into their positions at the expense of their interests. In the recent Iran nuclear negotiations, I identified five mistakes that practitioners should know & understand. Read the breakdown⬇️ www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-wh...

The collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is a case study in negotiation failure. Based on Steve Witkoff’s own account, 5 mistakes stand out. The lessons here matter because wars can begin--and most often end--at the negotiating table. My analysis here⬇️ www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-wh...

A few weeks ago, PM Sanae Takaichi said she is willing to meet Kim Jong Un face-to-face for dialogue. Then the 9th Party Congress happened. So, where do things stand for Takaichi's North Korea policy now? I answer that question via @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

"Kim Jong Un’s old mentors and advisors inside the regime have stepped aside–whether willingly or not–to make room for his allies and new prospects." Read more in my interim analysis of the 9th Party Congress via @thediplomat.com ⬇️ thediplomat.com/2026/02/kim-...

During six years at UNCMAC, I investigated numerous security incidents on the Korean Peninsula that could have escalated. These armistice investigations are little-understood tools of crisis management & peacebuilding. I break it down via @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/how-the-...

The Geneva round of peace negotiations demonstrated that the Kremlin is clinging to its maximalist negotiating strategy. Here's how to counter it⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/post/70376

"...the answer will not always be in procurement of new weapon systems, but rather in looking for ways to repurpose what’s already in its inventory." Quoted in the @japantimes.co.jp on how the GSDF will pursue requirements in the next Defense Buildup Program⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/02...

North Korean state media reported that 9th Party Congress proceedings are underway. Delegates quietly arrived on 16 February, and the Workers’ Party of Korea held a credentialing ceremony and visit to Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on 17 February. More below⬇️

Sanae Takaichi’s historic Lower House win delivered both a public mandate and the institutional power to pursue her agenda. But winning big brings its own sets of challenges. I explain more via the @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

Before the next round of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. negotiations begin in Geneva, here is my recap of how things played out in Abu Dhabi (via the @kyivpost.com) ⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/69652

10 years since Kaesong Industrial Complex shut down. Seoul wants it reopened. Pyongyang doesn’t. The reasons go far beyond sanctions, and they point to the structural shift in inter-Korean relations. Here’s why (via @thediplomat.com) ⬇️ thediplomat.com/2026/02/why-...

Want to make sense of the Kim Yo Jong-attributed statement that North Korean state media published this morning? Here's my analysis ⬇️

While many looked at the second round of Russia-Ukraine-US peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi as sign of positive progress, it highlighted four significant problems in the White House's mediation efforts. I explain in my latest for the @kyivpost.com ⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/69652

What will happen to North Korean POWs in Ukraine? This is an important question to answer when considering the Russia-Ukraine War, inter-Korean relations, and precedent for repatriations. Here's my analysis of their likely fate (via The Diplomat ⬇️ ) thediplomat.com/2026/02/what...

How does the North Korean regime use purges in its system of governance? The answer is here in my latest for @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/the-art-...

Wondering what to make of Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in yesterday's Lower House vote? Here's my answer via @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

It's election day in Japan 🗳 If you want to catch up on what's going on with the snap election, check out my scene setter via @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

"The treaty’s lapse removes taboos from certain policy debates, including those surrounding Japan’s three non-nuclear principles." My comments on the expiration of New START in the @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/02...

Want to know what to make of Japan's forthcoming snap election? Here's my scene setter via @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

What does it mean if the Lee Jae Myung administration tries to reimplement the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement (also known as the "Comprehensive Military Agreement")? Having lived through the rise & fall of the CMA, I offer insight via @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/what-to-...

Japan's forthcoming election is shaping up to be a battle between the ruling LDP-Nippon Ishin no Kai coalition and the newly formed "Centrist Reform Alliance." What is the Centrist Reform Alliance? I answer that question here⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

"As a leader, your organization will reflect your work ethic, your behavior, and your values whether you like it or not." When I gave this TED Talk nearly eight years ago, I hoped that my points would still resonate years later. I think they do. www.ted.com/talks/michae...

This morning, North Korean state media provided insights into the mechanics behind preparations for the 9th Party Congress. This not only gives insight into the timing of this event, but helps us understand how and why the DPRK operates the way it does. My brief analysis here⬇️

Whether the White House intends it or not, the gambit for Greenland will influence the Kremlin's negotiating strategy for Ukraine. What kind of influence will it have? I explain in my latest for the @kyivpost.com ⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/68346

The only *durable* way to counter gray-zone activities & violations of int'l laws, rules and norms is to identify illicit activities & respond in ways that are compliant with int'l standards. Emphasis on "durable." My comments via @IPDefenseForum⬇️ ipdefenseforum.com/2026/01/japa...

My analysis of the second Kim Yo Jong-attributed statement related to North Korea's drone allegations against the South⬇️

The whispers about Sanae Takaichi dissolving the Lower House are now discussions between the prime minister and ruling party executives. But why would Takaichi call a snap election now? I answer that question via the @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

What happens to (North) Korean People's Army soldiers when they return from the frontlines of the Russia-Ukraine War? Under the DPRK's system of governance, there isn't a straightforward answer for the Kim Jong Un regime. I offer insight in my latest for NK News⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/how-nort...

What should we make of the Coalition of the Willing security guarantees? BLUF: Excellent in principle, but hinges on political will being converted into binding commitments & sustained resourcing amidst Russian recalcitrance. More here via the @kyivpost.com ⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/67682

What does the political landscape look like for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in 2026? I answer that question via the @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

How has North Korea responded to the Maduro raid? I offer insight into the DPRK's reaction to the U.S. gambit in Venezuela in my latest for the @thediplomat.com ⬇️ thediplomat.com/2026/01/how-...

The alleged drone attack on Putin's residence illustrates the importance of third party monitoring & verification in peace processes. As dubious as the Kremlin's claim sounds, it will always be one side's word against the other until a third party conducts its own fact finding.

What is the status of the Korean DMZ? Who is responsible for its administration, and how does North Korea treat this buffer zone? In my inaugural piece for NK News, I cut through the politics to offer a practical understanding of the DMZ as it exists today⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/why-seou...

It called to us...a taste of our former home. 네네치킨 is bite-sized nostalgia.

Japan's biggest threat to its populace in 2025 wasn't missiles or foreign invasions, it was bears. The battle with the bears was notable in its own right, but it revealed deeper issues that present further challenges going forward. More from me on this issue ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

What is happening to the black markets in North Korea? In my latest for The Diplomat, I explain the origin and importance of the jangmadang free markets before detailing what the Kim Jong Un regime has done since COVID to uproot them. Read more here⬇️ thediplomat.com/2025/12/what...