Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

That three governments are unable to say that this is against international law is a reminder why we are losing the international rules-based order (or what is left)

Für die Tagschicht:

Climate Ambition vs Economic Security: can Europe have both? Join us at the online launch of @byfordt.bsky.social's new policy brief, which examines the debate between accelerating Europe’s clean energy transition or de-risking from China. Register here ⬇️ buff.ly/g8BCaNr @ecfr.eu

North Korea: “Yet again another reason to never denuclearize. Thank you for the reminder.”

Very happy to have had the opportunity to write this article for @iaionline.bsky.social, as part of a wider project in Korea and the G7! The argument is not without controversy, but I think given developments in the US it is worth having a debate about the potential of different alignments.

While European politicians are busy trading smears around green policy, Beijing has consistently viewed climate not as ideology, but as a lever of industrial power, writes @byfordt.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social https://bit.ly/42z4ofJ

A Brief Overview of the Political Situation in South Korea: Since the coup that took place in South Korea on December 3 of last year, I have written several threads explaining the unfolding situation. I would like to once again provide a brief summary of the current state of affairs in South Korea.

Hyundai Motor has a rare earths stockpile that can last about a year and it does not expect any near-term impact from global supply chain disruptions caused by China's export curbs Basic question: why didn't European automakers have this stockpile? www.reuters.com/business/aut...

📢We're hiring! Are you someone with experience of working in/on the Asian region and a strong knowledge of European foreign policy toward Asia and China? Join ECFR as Director of the Asia Programme. @ecfrasia.bsky.social

As Lee Jae-myung is delivering his acceptance speech to supporters in front of South Korea’s National Assembly, I have written down some thoughts for @ecfr.eu on how Seoul's foreign policy might shift under his Presidency, and how Europeans can engage him to keep up cooperation on crucial issues.

Good that Japan & EU are aligned on drawing red lines. Significant concessions on sectoral tariffs are essential. “Auto and auto parts are the biggest exporting sector from Japan to the US. If we cannot make progress in this sector, I think we cannot reach any consensus.” www.ft.com/content/45d5...

China's second "shock" threatens Europe's industrial core. As Chinese firms expand into the EU, central and eastern Europe's manufacturing hubs risk becoming mere assembly lines. Read the new policy brief by @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Jakub Jakóbowski. @ecfrasia.bsky.social bit.ly/3FaF3jA

The standout madness in the general madness are the enormous tariffs on South East Asia which, if these stick, is going to magnify China's sphere of influence. Geopolitical lunacy.

Recent ECFR data has revealed strong similarities in how Europeans and South Koreans think about some of the most pressing geopolitical issues. I dissected the most striking responses and wrote about their promise for EU-Korea relations in my latest Commentary for @ecfr.eu. ecfr.eu/article/poll...

As trade war with the US looms, and other Trumpian threats proliferate, @ecfr.eu's @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social has surveyed Europe's retaliatory options across trade, services, financial, tech & other realms. He finds that Europeans hold more "cards" than they may realise ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/...

1/ Europe at Munich Security Conference looked like deer in Trump administration's headlights. How have we got this far without a concrete European plan for Ukraine to put on table? How is there *still* no proper consensus among major EU governments (+UK) on how far Europe is willing to step up?

The perfect storm that had been looming over the Atlantic since Trump's victory made landfall in Europe this week as JD Vance, Pete Hegseth & gang swept through the continent, leaving devastation in their wake. Below my thoughts on Europe's week from hell www.linkedin.com/posts/noahba...

Indeed quite a striking result. Interestingly, on most questions South Korean responses closely mirrored EU sentiment. More specific analysis on the South Korean data is coming very soon!

SEARCHING FOR DEUTSCHLAND, @jpuglierin.bsky.social's and my pop-up @ecfr.eu podcast on the European and global dimensions of the German election, starts today! Episode 1 here: ecfr.eu/podcast-seri...

Thank you for all the suggestions - updated the list the think tank starter pack with 7 further European Think Tanks: bsky.app/starter-pack...

At least 300 North Korean soldiers dispatched to support Moscow's war in Ukraine have been killed, with some 2,700 others injured, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said Monday. en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2025...

Musk-Booster für die AfD auf X: Durchschnittlich erreichte ein Post von Alice Weidel in den letzten 2 Wochen ca. 1 Mio. Impressions (links), mehrere wurden von Musk repostet. Ein riesiger Unterschied zur durchschnittlichen Reichweite in den letzten 12 Monaten (rechts). Quelle: bundesdatenschau.com

It's no exaggeration to say there is a torrent of news in South Korea right now. Blinken is visiting, while investigators trying to figure out how/when to arrest Yoon, impeachment trials of Yoon and the impeached PM under prep, ongoing Jeju Air investigation, now a North Korean ballistic missile.

#SouthKorea’s political turmoil continues. Political norms, such as grounds for impeaching an acting President, remain highly contentious & trust in v short supply as DP accuses now fmr acting Pres Han as backing #Yoon’s martial law coup . koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-12...

1/ Latest from S. Korea: - Opposition files impeachment motion against Acting President Han Duck-soo after he refuses to appoint 3 new Constitutional Court justices - CC to begin Yoon impeachment hearing tomorrow Yoon is still silent, hasn't submitted documents, and isn't cooperating

In my latest analysis, I write about the reasons for the imposition and failure of martial law, the dispute over the impeachment of the president, and the prospects for the biggest political crisis in South Korea's democratic history. 👇 www.pism.pl/publications...

NEW PAPER: The 2022 fossil fuel price jumps caused an oil and gas profit explosion. We show the US reaped the largest profit increase (USD 275bn) of any country. Big Oil claims this benefits the American people. In fact, 51% went to the richest 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A 🧵

"There is irony in the fact that Yoon — who made support for democratic values and freedom the theme of South Korea’s global role and of his presidency — may be remembered for the most undemocratic of actions taken at home" - @victordcha.bsky.social on @financialtimes.com

🚨 Exciting news! With @stiftungmercator.bsky.social's support, the China Observers network of AMO, OSW and @ecfrasia.bsky.social are launching a project to amplify #CEE perspectives on China in #EUpolicy. It's called the Future of the European China Debate! 🎉 #ChinaInEurope 1/3

South Korea Is in Constitutional Chaos: After the short-lived martial law, nobody knows who’s in charge. foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/09/y...

For @ecfr.bsky.social I wrote down a couple of initial thoughts on the potential implications of the current political crisis for the country's foreign relations and cooperation with Europe, as a foreign policy shift seems in the cards for Seoul over the medium term.

Very useful for understanding what the basic foreign policy impulses of a potential Democratic Party government may look like. As feared, Japan relations likely to deteriorate again. And any European hopes for stronger ROK support for Ukraine (unlikely even under Yoon) will be disappointed.

Not to mention the likely deterioration of bilateral ROK-Japan ties. Will be interesting to see how a progressive government would ultimately position itself re US, and China, Russia, North Korea. Regional geopolitical challenges are not just going to go away after all.

So here’s my morning after immediate analysis of why Yoon Suk Yeol’s self coup of December 3-4, 2024 failed. I’ll try to highlight 5 things, but they are not mutually exclusive. 1/

7. Finally -- the Korean people are amazing. Congratulations to the way they stood up for democracy, the rule of law, and common decency. We could use a little of that spirit here in the U.S.

Prepare for MASSIVE protests. I'd venture the coming protests will outdo those that saw Park Geun-Hye removed from power. One thing about Koreans: they will absolutely not be cowed. They've overthrown dictatorship and removed a president from power, all with largely peaceful protests.

I was preparing to pitch an op-ed on the nationwide protests calling for President Yoon's resignation, aiming to provide global context amid the limited international coverage. Given the urgency, I’m sharing it now. I didn’t expect events to escalate this quickly. #SouthKorea #Democracy

I'm still grappling with what is unfolding in Seoul tonight, but I would agree with this assessment that this should likely be spelling the end to Yoon's presidency one way or another, the open question being the degree of violence between now and then.

President Yoon's declaration may constitute grounds for impeachment, as it could be considered an abuse of presidential powers. South Koreans are also questioning the procedural legitimacy of the declaration, particularly whether it was approved by a cabinet meeting as required by law.