⚡️US military aid to Ukraine dropped 99% in 2025, report finds. European countries stepped in to fill the gap, increasing military aid to Ukraine by 67% and non-military support by 59% in 2025, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

It was great to chat to @philtinline.bsky.social for the writing of this excellent report, which gets to grips with why it is so hard for the state to actually do stuff, and features a cameo from my old team, the Open Innovation Team. Many insights in here apply to foreign policy too:

There is such huge opportunity cost to each Trump tantrum. So many people with critical jobs have lost another week when they could have been doing something useful.

Trump's Greenland threats undermine the idea US tariffs are about aligning allies against China or onshoring industry. They're a tool to get things Trump wants. This is just one marker of a new era of economic coercion. In our @chathamhouse.org comment, Jerome Puri and I look at the UK's options:

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

Yes, against Russia & China. Sure. 'UK Defence Secretary John Healey says a British military officer is supporting a Danish "reconnaissance group" in Greenland ... to bolster security in the region against Russian "aggression" & "any Chinese activity". .' uk.news.yahoo.com/healey-uk-as...

Donald Trump hopes to get Venezuela's oil flowing again, but this will not come cheap. Tripling production, from 1 million to 3 million barrels of oil a day, would cost an estimated $183 billion.

"This sends a very clear signal to Russia and to China that regional spheres of influence are not something to be avoided but infact embraced." Laurel Rapp on US President Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions in Greenland and Venezuela, via BBC News.

Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent" Trying to make sense of today's events... (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

Our experts give their initial reaction to President Trump’s strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Read in full ⤵️

This by @ecfr.eu’s Majda Ruge is a good guide to Trump’s calculus on Venezuela. Rival factions (primacists, prioritisers, restrainers) have been counseling different courses of action, but “the answers depend on what the president decides will bring him the biggest ‘win’.” ecfr.eu/article/maga...

NEW: Trump administration launches direct military strikes on Venezuela. Explosions reported in Caracas. Aircraft reported flying over the city.

New post just out: "Advice for advisers - 14 lessons for making government work" A final guest post of the year from former PM adviser Henry de Zoete on how to make things happen in power. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

We strongly condemn the U.S. decision to impose travel restrictions on five European individuals, including former Commissioner Thierry Breton. Link to full statement: link.europa.eu/NtMX4K

SCOOP: Starmer and Carney are working on a new strategic partnership that could see Canada buy the U.K.'s 6th-gen fighter jet, forge critical minerals deals and resolve thorny trade and tariff issues, High Commissioner Goodale tells POLITICO as he steps down. www.politico.eu/article/cana...

Christian Turner to be new UK ambassador to US ft.trib.al/9UNDHMq

UK to hold inquiry into foreign financial interference in domestic politics

“Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Louise Sandher-Jones said that “for the first time since early 2021, Armed Forces intake is now greater than outflow”. In the 12 months to 1 Oct 25, “there was an increase of 13% in people joining the Armed Forces compared to the previous 12-month period”.”

Good piece in the @wsj.com on the US's National Security Strategy - which includes some of my thoughts on what this means for Europe. Boils down to: No more "Trump whisperers", European leaders can no longer deny that the transatlantic relationship as we knew it is dead. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism." www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

As I wrote yesterday, my understanding was that the demand of the EU towards Canada for SAFE participation was much lower than towards the UK. If this report is correct, though, the €10 million agreement is much lower, and rather closer to the UK's proposal for its contribution.

​For years, a rare-earth mining project in Africa promised to help free the West from its dependence on China. Some weeks back, it fell into Chinese hands.

Dozens of senior officials from across Asia, Africa and the Pacific will touch down in Brussels on Thursday, as the EU tries to convince them it is a more reliable partner than the United States and China. My preview of this week's EU Indo Pacific forum

Running the [insert]* has become an impossible job on.ft.com/4oE2cwk *BBC *ONS *British Library *country

Special relationship latest

For defence and security types, I'll be talking about whether the UK can afford to fight a war with General Sir Richard Barrons and @oliviaosullivan.bsky.social at Chatham House on 27th November. You can sign up here for online or in person: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...

⚡️Ukraine just became the first non-member to join the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force.

😮 Norway finds out that its electric busses - produced by a Chinese firm - can be remotely controlled from China! The good news of this is that the Norwegians realised this because they did a cybersecurity test. We need to think about, and test, stuff like this more. www.focus.de/panorama/wel...

Pretty extraordinary story here www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bbc....

Another momentous week for the #India-#UK relationship. I discuss the key achievements in the following thread along with sharing my earlier analysis on the bilateral relationship: @chathamhouse.org, @chasiapacific.bsky.social www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/modi...

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet India’s Narendra Modi in Mumbai next week to drive forward their tech and security partnership, multiple people familiar with the planning told POLITICO. www.politico.eu/article/keir...

Happy Stanislav Petrov day! Sometimes, questioning what the computer tells you, is the way to go.

Taipei for the first time unilaterally imposed semiconductor export controls on a country, limiting shipments to South Africa for trying to weaken ties with Taiwan — a key demand of Beijing from its formal partners.

On the other site I have a list of people I follow - regular Gazans who mostly tweet in Arabic - and the stories they tell and the depth of their despair are absolutely breaking my heart. And they're blaming Hamas and Israel in almost equal measure

BREAKING: The governments of Canada, Australia and the UK have formally recognised the Palestinian state. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.io/lcqb2s

Hopes the visit would provide a breakthrough on efforts by UK negotiators to axe the 25% tariffs facing Britain’s beleaguered steel and aluminum industry were dashed even before Trump landed. www.politico.eu/article/keir...

But first up, will Starmer's 'flatter Trump' strategy pay off once more over the state visit? Short and sharp from @iona-allan.bsky.social with excellent comment from @oliviaosullivan.bsky.social and @rentouljohn.bsky.social www.chathamhouse.org/publications...

Here comes the money: UK lands Trump tech deals Britain’s quest for AI sovereignty is made in the USA. www.politico.eu/article/uk-m...

Trump now publicly calling all Nato members to put 50-100% tariffs on China 'I am ready to “go” when you are. Just say when? I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended'

Poland formally asks for Article Four consultations. “Tusk later announced that the consultations with the allies had already taken on the form of a formal request to launch art. 4 NATO. - This is our joint recommendation - the head of gov’t pointed out.” www.fakt.pl/polityka/ros...

“Following the cold war, western governments popularised the notion of a “peace dividend” from reduced defence spending. Now the British government refers to a “defence dividend” as it aims to use defence spending to generate economic growth.”

Yesterday in Parliament, I raised the case of my former @financialtimes.com colleague who is stuck in Gaza and is starving. Too many journalists have been killed in targeted attacks by the Israeli military. (1/2) My question 👇

Event | In conversation with HE Dr Husam Zomlot, Head of the Palestinian Mission to the UK Husam Zomlot will speak at @chathamhouse.org next week to discuss the growing international calls for Palestinian statehood. Date📅: 2 September Time⌚️: 13:00 Find out more⤵️

You have to see the whole board. Trump's policies are a regime shift from the US as insurance provider to protection racket, creating The New Economic Geography. It isn't just about any one tariff or Fed official - the implications are far broader www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The lengths I'd go to make you focus on the front page of the Sunday papers so you didn't notice the football pages.... (now with the link done right. Cos I'm a tech bro) observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

UK Ministry of Defence intelligence report this morning: “It would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory, [which] would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed or wounded).”

Thank you @krishgm.bsky.social and @channel4news.bsky.social for the opportunity to discuss Gaza, Sudan, the humanitarian funding gulf, and the battle ahead for the UN.👇 youtu.be/k4n074586Tc?...

My new piece with my first reflections on the longer-term implications of Trump's AI chip deal with Nvidia and AMD: www.chathamhouse.org/2025/08/trum...