There is, in real world climate system, more than one path to get to a "high warming scenario." Thankfully, it doesn't look like we're going to take anything close to an RCP8.5 *emissions* trajectory. But that does not mean we're safe from an RCP8.5-like level of warming. Why?

Today has been the hottest day in May on record with Kew Gardens provisionally reaching 34.8°C - exceeding the previous highest May temperature in the UK by a full 2 degrees Celsius🌡️ This heat would be exceptional in the UK even in mid summer, let alone in May📈

“Built for a climate that no longer exists” is a good phrase www.theguardian.com/environment/...

We have a new preprint on this, led by my former postdoc David Lafferty (now at Verisk) and with a great set of co-authors including @climateflavors.bsky.social. We use a "meta-ensemble" of downscaled climate products to partition temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty across CONUS.

But this reinforces the point @chrisjparker.bsky.social was making: sampling a sufficiently wide range of variability is most important for risk analysis.

🧵 There's been a lot of noise about the 'dropping' of RCP8.5 and what that means for worst-case climate outcomes. But this debate is largely missing the point. 1/6 #ClimateScience #ClimateRisk #Adaptation #ClimateModels

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

Earth is warming as ther's more energy arriving than leaving driven by rising greenhouse gases & this imbalance is growing rather than shrinking as needed to limit #climate change. Our recent contributions to this in @ioppublishing.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1088/1748... doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.

Some dates for your diary - our next statutory publications 📅 A huge amount of analysis has gone into these and we look forward to sharing them with you soon.

Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.

While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well. In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms. 🧪🧵

@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis? interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...

Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!

It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives. Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇 www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...

The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...

Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?

Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!

🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇

The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.

High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe. The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins I summarise the key takeaways of our ‪@natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.

New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes. We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?

Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...

⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began. This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1

Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media. FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.

A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...

Finally! I would like to think my relentless nagging was the gentle nudge that made this happen.

Happy to share our paper in ‪@science.org‬ 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime? We attempted to answer these questions in this study: rdcu.be/eh0e8 1/14

Resiting the temptation to engage in an RCP8.5 debate.

The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

This is great! And yes we should f***ing swear more about how we are still neither reducing global emissions to meet agreed targets nor adapting to increasing extreme weather already now happening

This Spring (March-April-May) may end up being the driest on record for the UK. This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836. Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK. www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...

Climate impacts will worsen - it is a question of whether they are terrible, really bad or just bad. It is a no brainer to scale up investment in adaptation. This will save money and spur economic activity. Climate resilience is a competitive advantage. www.theccc.org.uk/2025/04/30/t...

Daily record in Helsinki (±3days) shattered by more than 5°C! Reminder, record shattering events will occur with increasing frequency and severity in a warming climate.

Looking for a new postdoc position in climate? Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates. Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project: elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

NOAA owns, operates, or coordinates 18 weather satellites 92 twice-daily weather balloon launch sites 159 weather radar systems 9,000 weather monitoring stations Global & regional weather forecast models NOAA's data and modeling underpins everything weather-related in the USA.

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🚨Major Publication Alert🚨 Our Seventh Carbon Budget report is out today. The UK can decarbonise by 2050 while delivering cheaper bills and energy security.

New paper! Chris O'Reilly and I looked at recent trends in the wintertime North Pacific jet stream - Has climate change shifted the jet? - Can models capture these recent trends? - How has this affected North American weather? doi.org/10.1029/2024... 🧵

Another great synopsis by Bob Berwyn. One weird thing about the debate between “it’s worse than we thought” and “the truth is bad enough” is the latter’s “truth” is pretty much in line with the former’s vision of what is expected to be “worse”😬

🌍🌡️ #Climate policies aiming at #NetZeroEMission are genuily #PublicHealth policies ⚕️💰 Their benefits may even outweigh their implementation costs. 📜🧪 That’s what we found in a study published today in The Lancet Planetary Health : doi.org/10.1016/S254... 🧵 1/

Thanks Glen. It's indeed not a definition, but a convention following the AR6 and the 2nd Periodic Review Para 5 Dec 21/CP.27 unfccc.int/sites/defaul... "notes that it is assessed over a period of decades" Which of course also could be >20, i.e. 30 years. We could have been more precise here.

January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵

Thanks Fiona Harvey @theguardian.com for this long-promised “starting at the ccc” interview, coming at an unintentionally interesting couple of weeks for decarbonisation in the UK! www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Draft chapter outline for IPCC AR7 WGI is now public - *subject to approval* at the plenary, end of Feb What's new? Compared to AR6: -More concise -greater range of modeling approaches -chapters span Earth System domains -considers diverse physical scenarios /thread/ apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager...