@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis? interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...

Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!

It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives. Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇 www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...

The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...

Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?

Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!

🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇

The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.

High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe. The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins I summarise the key takeaways of our ‪@natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.

New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes. We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?

Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...

⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began. This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1

Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media. FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.

A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...

Finally! I would like to think my relentless nagging was the gentle nudge that made this happen.

Happy to share our paper in ‪@science.org‬ 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime? We attempted to answer these questions in this study: rdcu.be/eh0e8 1/14

Resiting the temptation to engage in an RCP8.5 debate.

The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

This is great! And yes we should f***ing swear more about how we are still neither reducing global emissions to meet agreed targets nor adapting to increasing extreme weather already now happening

This Spring (March-April-May) may end up being the driest on record for the UK. This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836. Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK. www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...

Climate impacts will worsen - it is a question of whether they are terrible, really bad or just bad. It is a no brainer to scale up investment in adaptation. This will save money and spur economic activity. Climate resilience is a competitive advantage. www.theccc.org.uk/2025/04/30/t...

Daily record in Helsinki (±3days) shattered by more than 5°C! Reminder, record shattering events will occur with increasing frequency and severity in a warming climate.

Looking for a new postdoc position in climate? Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates. Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project: elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

NOAA owns, operates, or coordinates 18 weather satellites 92 twice-daily weather balloon launch sites 159 weather radar systems 9,000 weather monitoring stations Global & regional weather forecast models NOAA's data and modeling underpins everything weather-related in the USA.

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🚨Major Publication Alert🚨 Our Seventh Carbon Budget report is out today. The UK can decarbonise by 2050 while delivering cheaper bills and energy security.

New paper! Chris O'Reilly and I looked at recent trends in the wintertime North Pacific jet stream - Has climate change shifted the jet? - Can models capture these recent trends? - How has this affected North American weather? doi.org/10.1029/2024... 🧵

Another great synopsis by Bob Berwyn. One weird thing about the debate between “it’s worse than we thought” and “the truth is bad enough” is the latter’s “truth” is pretty much in line with the former’s vision of what is expected to be “worse”😬

🌍🌡️ #Climate policies aiming at #NetZeroEMission are genuily #PublicHealth policies ⚕️💰 Their benefits may even outweigh their implementation costs. 📜🧪 That’s what we found in a study published today in The Lancet Planetary Health : doi.org/10.1016/S254... 🧵 1/

Thanks Glen. It's indeed not a definition, but a convention following the AR6 and the 2nd Periodic Review Para 5 Dec 21/CP.27 unfccc.int/sites/defaul... "notes that it is assessed over a period of decades" Which of course also could be >20, i.e. 30 years. We could have been more precise here.

January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵

Thanks Fiona Harvey @theguardian.com for this long-promised “starting at the ccc” interview, coming at an unintentionally interesting couple of weeks for decarbonisation in the UK! www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Draft chapter outline for IPCC AR7 WGI is now public - *subject to approval* at the plenary, end of Feb What's new? Compared to AR6: -More concise -greater range of modeling approaches -chapters span Earth System domains -considers diverse physical scenarios /thread/ apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager...

Wow, the whole Ireland (and parts of the UK) are under red warning. We are talking about truly historically powerful storm with wind gusts over land areas (!) exceeding 36 m/s. Stay safe! Minimum pressure could reach all-time record lows (~940 hPa) in the Scotland area.

Our new paper on #heatwaves is out: in many regions of the world, very extreme heat may intensify much stronger with #climatechange than expected. @reinhardkh.bsky.social @wegenercenter.bsky.social @ncas-uk.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Has the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakened over the last decades? In our new study, we combine state-of-the-art CMIP6 models and observation-based estimates of the air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic to show that the AMOC has not declined since the 1960s! 🌊

This apparent acceleration is also broadly consistent with our climate models, which expect a near-term acceleration in scenarios like SSP2-4.5 where aerosols emissions decline but CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions do not: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Scientists developed the first climate models in the late 1960s (for which the Nobel Prize in physics was recently awarded!). How have these models held up against what happened in the real world after they were published? Surprisingly well, it turns out:

So, we have the global temperatures for the whole of 2024. It was the warmest year on record (1850-2024) across six widely used datasets: HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth, GISTEMP, NOAAGlobalTemp, ERA5 and JRA-3Q.

We have some interesting findings on record-breaking temperatures and extremes: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Here's my visual explanation of why we have not yet reached 1.5°C even though 2024 was likely warmer than 1.5°C. 2024 shows us how close we are, but the underlying warming is still under 1.5°C.

Really interesting figure in the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social Global Climate Highlights 2024. 1877-78 really stands out as an extreme years. This is the period of the 1876-78 global famine that caused an estimated 50million death. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

The Paris agreement target of 1.5°C refers to the long-term average. A single year above 1.5°C does not mean the target has been breached but it does mean it is getting closer. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

2024 @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #climate data out today: 📈 2024 - first year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial; for ERA5 it was 1.6ºC 🌡️ the past 10 years were the 10 warmest years on record 📈 2024 was warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia 🌍🌡️🧪⚒️🌊

Wildfires aren’t a problem in the UK, right? Wrong. Not on the same scale as we are seeing in LA, but there are thousands of wildfires every year in the UK. In the heatwave of July 2022 wildfires broke out in London. Our new paper explores the risks: doi.org/10.1002/cli2...

Occasional reminder that there’s no, “it’s too late, its over” for anthropogenic climate change. Every molecule of CO2 that doesn’t go into the atmosphere makes a difference. Preventing 0.1 degree of warming makes a difference. Every bit of climate resilience we build together makes a difference.