📢 Submissions are now open for the U.S. Climate Collection, a joint @theAGU + @ametsoc initiative. This special collection will publish U.S.-focused climate assessment science that’s free to read, ensuring rigorous, accessible science informs decisions for years to come. 🔗 buff.ly/1tHUSLC

New paper out. In which we helped the folks at the Allen Institute for AI (AI2) show that their climate emulator does a good (though not perfect) job at reproducing E3SMs' response to different SST boundary conditions. 1/ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Our working hypothesis was they were going to have AI summarize all 350,000 comments but it turns they’re just going to <checks notes> ignore them entirely

🚨 NCA5 is now LIVE! 🚨 They took it down, but we've brought it back at: nca5.climate.us Bookmark. 👏 this. 👏 page. 👏 This is just our first step in restoring trusted science information that Americans need to understand what's happening with the climate.

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

After a brief (ahem) hiatus, the HadCRUT5 global temperature dataset has now been updated to June 2025 by @metoffice.gov.uk @climateuea.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social

The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock

#realktalk though, when is the deadline for papres to be accepted to be considered for AR7?

Yet another Nat Cat job? Actually, we're searching for TWO experts, specialized in tropical cyclones or earthquakes. US or UK, remote work definitely an option. Great job for an ECR physical scientist looking to join the insurance/reinsurance industry! eedu.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

Es ist eine grosse Ehre, den 2025 Deutschen Umweltpreis zu erhalten! Danke an alle meine jetzigen und ehemaligen Gruppenmitglieder und viele Kolleg:innen! @lukasgudmundsson.bsky.social @yasserhaddad.bsky.social @yannquilcaille.bsky.social @michaelgwindisch.bsky.social @usyseth.bsky.social

“particles spewed by Canadian wildfires killed 82,000 people in 2023, according to a study published in Nature on Wednesday. The long tendrils of smoke choked towns not just in Canada and the US, but also across the Atlantic. The pollution was responsible for 22,000 early deaths in Europe alone.”

The current administration has claimed renewables are making the grid less reliable. If that were the case, I'd expect states adding the most renewables over the past decade to have the largest increase in outages. However, the opposite seems to be true!

It's Reviewer classics week: - This work is not novel but I can't provide literature to back up my verdict. - While you have now included all the datasets that I asked you to, you are still not considering enough datasets. - Do this analysis that you already did (in the supplement).

Our new study on how large floods will change in Europe under climate change, led by @bfang.bsky.social, with @bevacquae.bsky.social

Thanks to @climateflavors.bsky.social of @polarbearsinternational.org for the chat, help with this. With the Arctic's sea ice loss a worrisome trend, projections continue to indicate when the region could see its first instance of individual, ice-free day. www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/clim...

Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out. Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.

Wikipedia editors trying to fend off the onslaught of AI crap have crowdsourced some telltale signs of LLM-generated writing; it might be handy for editors and proofreaders generally. Thanks to @ellenrykers.com for pointing me to it. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikiped...

Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report. This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it. Example: refuting one sentence.

I raise this point frequently - we're not even well-adapted to the weather and climate extremes we already experience ('adaptation deficit', a la Burton 2009). Addressing that would go a meaningful way toward reducing total vulnerability to future climate changes www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

My lab's been attacked by an anti-wind group and their lawyers. They threatened the science funding of my whole university, to shut me and my undergraduate research assistants up. NYT just covered it. 1/n www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/c...

My latest: The Trump administration is not waiting for the next fiscal year -- or Congress -- to cut climate science at NOAA. A new document details the money it won't spend *this* year on climate research.

Worthwhile (and moving) read on strategies for continuing to do important research under threat. hrdag.substack.com/p/scatter-an...

🚨 REPORTERS: Join Our DOE Climate Report Media List 🚨 If you're a reporter or communicator, sign up for updates on comments regarding the DOE climate report. We will share embargoed releases, background materials, and follow-up opportunities with you.

Excellent write-up by Bob Henson on a series of new papers, including ours, pointing to a larger role for external forcing in the Southwest's recent drying, not only through the well-studied warming but also through declines in precipitation.

This is an important article about the recently released DOE climate report which is immediately being used to remove important federal action on climate change. This quote summarizes the situation quite well. A “tell me how you really feel” moment. www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/c...

Right then... A quick review of the DOE's new 'critical review' of climate science. Whether it's worth a formal community response - I'm still not sure, but here's my first thoughts /thread/

Please consider joining our #AGU session on compound climate events, led by @rahimileila.bsky.social. Invited speaker: Markus Reichstein. agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...

Please consider joining our #AGU session on beautifully complex Water-Energy-Carbon interactions with a broad scope from theory to applied science. Invited talks by Julia Green @juliakgreen.bsky.social and Gabe Kooperman.

Incredible shrinking Cone of Uncertainty! Kartina 2005 vs Helene 2024. Dramatic improvement in hurricane forecasting due to expertise of NOAA scientists at NHC & AOML. Since 2005 forecast error on 5-day track has decreased by ~50%! We often take these accurate forecasts for granted but... 1/

I wrote about how Trump is dismantling the country's disaster forecasting infrastructure. But this isn't going to stop disasters from piling up -- quite the contrary.

Now that NOAA is no longer tracking billion-dollar weather disasters, rely on insurance broker Gallagher Re, who just released their list for the first half of 2025. So far, we are near the 10-year average. The CA wildfires ($65 billion) were the 8th-costliest weather disaster in world history.

The National Climate Assessment may have been deleted but the planet keeps reminding us what it said

#ArcticSeaIceDay is July 15! We're counting down w/ sea ice facts from Dr. Flavio Lehner. ❄️#4: Arctic sea ice is declining in both extent and thickness due to human-caused climate warming. youtu.be/xVwSlSw7kX0

A wildfire burned a water treatment plant at Grand Canyon, releasing deadly chlorine gas. The NOAA HYSPLIT model “currently indicates no critical threat to nearby communities” but multiple trails and Phantom Ranch were closed. The NOAA lab that runs HYSPLIT is on the chopping block.

For those curious about Bear E4, it's an adult male caught near Cape Churchill in Manitoba this spring who was on northern Québec a few days ago but has now moved to Mansel Island, Nunavut. This fellow isn't scared of swimming.

The Secretary of Commerce's new policy requiring his personal review of all NOAA contracts over $100,000 is directly harming American science. 🧪 How do I know? Because this morning, twelve of America's rising leaders in climate science (including myself) were furloughed.

On The Climate Brink: What to know about the flooding in Texas? What's the connection to climate change? www.theclimatebrink.com/p/update-on-...

“Everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said. The reality: Closing NOAA labs like NSSL, critical for flash flood forecasts & research.

One more day: Mon flood risk just upgraded in central TX. NOAA/WPC: “Any storms that move across this extremely vulnerable region will rapidly cause flash flooding, some of which could be significant if cells repeat or stall over the already hard-hit regions.” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

I'd like to introduce a new page on my website: U.S. climate indicator visuals (zacklabe.com/united-state...). I only have a few basic variables so far, but I will be expanding this summer to add a range of metrics (e.g., ecological). I welcome suggestions! Hope this is useful, especially nowadays.

It's amazing to see so many polar bears still out on the last bits of ice in Hudson Bay. Bear E4 made it to land on the northern tip of Québec. Staying out on so little sea ice is a big shift in behaviour from the past decades.

For perspective: a recent study suggested that economic savings from just a *single* well-predicted hurricane, thanks to NOAA research advancements, are on order of *$5 billion.* That exceeds NOAA's *entire proposed annual operating budget.* So much for government efficiency.

It's another season with unusually early ice loss across the Hudson Bay (Canada). This is occurring several weeks in advance of the typical conditions found in the 1980s. Data from @nsidc.bsky.social: nsidc.org/data/seaice_...

I sought comment from NOAA and the Department of Defense on this and received this reply today from NOAA's spokesperson. They suggest we use the surviving ATMS microwave that degrades significantly at the edges. You can see how much worse off we'd be with Erick last week if we only had ATMS.

The 💯-hour Weather and Climate Livestream is now available on YouTube! Head to www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcWR... to rewatch your favorite talks, catch up on the parts you missed, and learn how you can help Save America's Forecasts. And there's still time to call your reps at wclivestream.com/act

This is maybe the first weather data loss that I can say will, without any doubt at all, kill people. This is some of the core data we use to diagnose rapid intensification when visible satellite and/or hurricane hunter data isn’t available. Anyone on/near the coast just got a lot less safe

Both science and universities in the US are in the process of being devastated by our current president and his administration. I felt compelled to use my little platform to say something about this. So instead of my uncle, I'm talking about this instead, this week on the podcast. bit.ly/3Ta2FIE

Most Hudson Bay polar bears are hanging on to the last of the ice. Several have crossed over to land. Sea ice is where the bears would prefer to be. One bear way offshore will have to make a move soon for which way to go for land.

Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.