We have a new preprint on this, led by my former postdoc David Lafferty (now at Verisk) and with a great set of co-authors including @climateflavors.bsky.social. We use a "meta-ensemble" of downscaled climate products to partition temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty across CONUS.

🧵 There's been a lot of noise about the 'dropping' of RCP8.5 and what that means for worst-case climate outcomes. But this debate is largely missing the point. 1/6 #ClimateScience #ClimateRisk #Adaptation #ClimateModels

Very interesting paper teasing out the nuances of flood risk distribution in the US using an incredible individual-level dataset. Documents a huge concentration of flood risk among the very highest income group - lots of wealthy people enjoying the coast and river views from their second homes.

A propos: progressivereform.org/publications...

If you are like me and prefer to read the typeset version of papers, here you go: the final version is out fresh from the print 😊 www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Hi everyone, gridded data for the flat10MIP project is now open and public on the Norwegian Research Data Archive. Research using these data for understanding carbon-climate feedbacks, including climate commitment and reversibility is super relevant for AR7-WG1. archive.sigma2.no/dataset/flat...

In the SPM of IPCC AR6 WGI there was a hexagon gap in assessed trends of heatwaves & extreme rainfall in Central Africa Can the hexagon gap be filled for AR7? @derrickmuheki.bsky.social et al. have rescued millions of historical observations from the Congo: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Wondering how to motivate students in intro programming classes? "... writing skill and CS achievement are significant predictors of vibe-coding performance, and CS achievement remains a significant predictor after controlling for domain-general cognitive skills." dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/...

I regret to inform you that they are once again allowing me to share my opinion in public tasteofscience.org/new-york-eve...

After a year of repairs, one of the world's most beautiful commutes - the Cascadilla Gorge trail to Cornell - is open again!

"Climate science is not innately politically charged, whatever the administration says. ... It was our job to study the laws of physics, which remain true no matter who’s in power." - Kate Marvel, Sr. Scientist, Project Drawdown 📰 Full article in the @newyorktimes: https://nyti.ms/4tBNtEf

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

This excellent piece from @madisoncondon.bsky.social shows why (nerd alert!)—even if the scenario underlying RCP 8.5 is implausible, RCP 8.5 serves an important role in our understanding of and planning for climate change, and is therefore not misleading. progressivereform.org/publications...

Indeed, wild to be in CO at this moment in time talking about our new 3km snowpack simulations. Great visit to a great department! Lots of fresh ideas on what drives Southwest drying. Thanks Maria Rugenstein and CSU!

My resignation letter

Just in: UCAR has filed a lawsuit against NSF, the Commerce Dept, NOAA, and OMB to prevent the dismantling of NCAR, alleging "violations of the Constitution and the Administrative Procedure Act."

This should be the biggest weather and climate news on your radar today. You can send an email today to say why dismantling NCAR is a bad idea for everyone: [email protected]

Today we showed up. Feeling proud of scientists and science supporters in this moment. Thank you all. #Standupforscience

This is going to be useful: The CMIP Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) for derived data from the CMIP archives: dashboard.climate-ref.org Still working out the kinks and focused on CMIP6, but will expand for CMIP7. #CMIP2026

One year in the federal assault on climate science — a review and prospective

Hudson Bay polar bears took a big jump to the northwest this week. Why? I'm guessing favourable winds that made hunting that direction more effective (but we don't know for sure & it's something we're investigating).

Need more industries to speak up against the attacks on NCAR. www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...

Hudson Bay are well spread out & doing different things. One female (K) has moved close to shore. Bear C has emerged from a den - it's a bit early if she's got new cubs but we'll see if she stays there or moves onto the ice.

docs.google.com/document/d/1... Hey folks, tried putting together a letter in direct response to the NSF unprompted decision. Feel free to offer suggestion or to add your name as a signatory, and thanks to those that did it alredy! Current text follows (errors all mine!)...

Last December, weather and climate scientists sat down with us to tell us why they loved the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and why it benefits us all. Last night, the NSF began dismantling it. Listen to what they have to say, and why it's urgent that we #SaveNCAR wclivestream.com/act

*DEADLINE EXTENDED* February 8 Submit your suggestions and nominate (yourself or others) as a co-author for the 2026 edition of the 10 New Insights in Climate Science

🧵How might snowfall change in a warming world? I set up a very simple “toy” statistical model to explore this question. Isn't it obvious that snowfall decreases as temperatures get warmer? Yes, but …

I honestly thought December was way colder in the Northeast than what the numbers indicate. Seven mild Decembers in a row really messes up your perception...

Lego day (this past Wednesday)

Stop Guessing, Start Planning. Ever look at a single snow forecast and think, "But what are the actual odds?" The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is a resource to help you get ahead of the storm by moving beyond a single number to give you the full picture. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/ 👇

Join UCAR President Antonio Busalacchi at a town hall meeting this afternoon at #AMS2026 to discuss the threats facing NSF NCAR. https://bit.ly/3NNXHS5

2-meter temperatures, jet stream (light blue), and stretched stratospheric polar vortex (dark blue), for 12 UTC, 26 Jan 2026.

We knew the NSF letter about NCAR would come. I think this is an occasion that will require great coordination and strategical thinking. UCAR should respond as a block, coordinating a response across universities (especially in the South, and large public universities that use NCAR data a lot)

The extreme cold across eastern N America is due to the Alaskan Ridge regime, which on average brings the coldest winter weather to this region. Is this happening more often? No. During the modern warming era, there has been no observed trend in the occurrence of this regime at this time of year.

Really excited to see this paper out!! Led by @vtcoop.bsky.social we show that if you use cold and warm paleoclimates together, you can reduce uncertainty in Earth's climate sensitivity by quantifying the pattern effect and more precisely constrain future climate change www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Check out the new version of my climate science textbook. Free, accessible and online. Let me know what you think. open.oregonstate.education/climatescien...

2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5). Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).

This past month showed us once again how extraordinary our weather and climate community is (scroll for 🧵). Whether you’re joining us as student, scientist, hobbyist, or concerned citizen, let’s #SaveNCAR and put an end to the war on science together 💯

Looking for: postdoc on quantitative history of China; postdoc on measuring wildfire fuels with LiDAR; PhDs on modeling fire in the boreal forest and the Pacific Northwest; MSc’s on earth system science; interns in many topics. Check it out!

Our guide to approaching (and starting!) conversations about NCAR and the importance of weather and climate science. #SaveNCAR

There aren't a lot of resources for what people can do to prevent the destruction of NCAR, so I made this: #NCAR #climate #climatescience #weather #meteorology #activism #myresources

From wildfire warnings to flood forecasts, NCAR's research impacts everyone in America. President Trump's attempt to dismantle it for political vengeance is beyond reckless. We will fight against this dangerous scheme every step of the way.

From @AGU.org: Senators are working on legislation to save NCAR, but we need extra support for these 8 states. Your Senators in Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Texas, and Wyoming need to hear from you.

On #AGVTV at #AGU25, Dr. Melissa Kenney and I talked about the opportunity for the entire scientific community to contribute towards climate assessment research. Submit your papers at USclimatecollection.org. youtu.be/7Kb-hfwIUxQ?...

I came to the US over 10 years ago for a postdoc at NCAR. It changed my life and supercharged my ability to do science. NCAR's unique community nature makes it a global node in atmospheric and climate research. It's really not possible to overstate its value for science and society.

It’s simply not possible to overstate how important NCAR is to US and world science. We need to fight this with everything we’ve got.

For 40+ years, the U.S. gov has conducted highly respected & productive polar bear research. At a time when many in power question the value of gov-supported scientific research, some involved express concern about what is at stake. Learn why gov-led polar bear research is vital. pbears.org/4a1eRVE

Join us! In a few days, @climatecentral.org will be launching a new webinar series on the state of our climate! I’ll provide monthly overviews of current global and U.S. conditions, along with special guests, featured topics, and written reports. ➡️ Sign up at www.climatecentral.org/climate-brie...

I was the 92nd viewer. This should have 92M views.