On The Climate Brink, I explain how we connect extreme weather to climate change. Yes, it's another draft chapter from my forthcoming climate risk textbook. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-climat...

RCP and SSP scenarios are not emission scenarios. I repeat: they are not emission scenarios. They are radiative forcing scenarios. Forcing = human emissions + the response of the climate system to those emissions You can only back out emissions by making assumptions about climate sensitivity.

Early April temperatures in New York State: yesterday vs today. Some remarkable temperature gradients!

Given recent discussion regarding indirect role of anomalous precip (& associated upstream diabatic heating) in amplifying record-breaking heatwaves, even thousands of miles away (inc. Mar 2026 event), I wanted to share this excellent paper from 2025:

Phone weather apps are inaccurate. Those apps are fully automated and use algorithms that aren’t “sufficiently dynamic,” @weatherwest.bsky.social @ucanr.edu said — and in a nutshell, they’re lacking human expertise and customization behind the scenes.

One of the wildest 24-hour loops you'll see in the Mid Atlantic - from mid-upper 80s and tornado warnings to 33F and heavy snow

AI/ML algorithms can sometimes generate unphysical forecasts: a case in point

Over the past decade, Phil has only been accurate 30% of the time in subseasonal forecasts of spring temperature anomalies in the US. More details in the attached abstract (and graphical abstract, courtesy of NOAA).

The extreme cold across eastern N America is due to the Alaskan Ridge regime, which on average brings the coldest winter weather to this region. Is this happening more often? No. During the modern warming era, there has been no observed trend in the occurrence of this regime at this time of year.

🧵How might snowfall change in a warming world? I set up a very simple “toy” statistical model to explore this question. Isn't it obvious that snowfall decreases as temperatures get warmer? Yes, but …

🧵How might snowfall change in a warming world? I set up a very simple “toy” statistical model to explore this question. Isn't it obvious that snowfall decreases as temperatures get warmer? Yes, but …

#NCAR is a beautiful place and a national treasure. I had the chance to visit the NCAR Mesa Lab last summer, and their exhibits (free and public) are the coolest and most informative ones I’ve seen on atmospheric and climate science. (1/3)