In Edinburgh this weekend? Why not come along to #PeopleFest I'm speaking at an event where we will consider, in this changing climate, how catastrophe and the mundane interwoven and balanced against each other in our daily lives. Register for free here: shorturl.at/aqutE

Imagine the same synoptic weather patterns occurred in a warmer world. How would our experience of the weather be different? Warmer? Yes Wetter? Only on the wettest 10% of days Everyday weather in a warmer world by Thomas et al.: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Extreme rainfall will become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, however not every event follows the general trend In our new study we show the Ahr floods of 2021 may have been the perfect storm: rdcu.be/fh2YW @erichfischer.bsky.social @knmi.nl @ivm-vu-amsterdam.bsky.social

Comparing multiple attribution methods increases confidence in conclusions - we need all the puzzle pieces to see the full picture 🧩🌀☀️🌧️🧩 Hear more about the many different weather and climate #attribution methods at #EGU26 today, including Shirin Ermis' talk on method comparisons, 1045 in room F1

Where is most susceptible to record breaking humid heat? 🥵🌡️🔥 Today at #EGU26, @regclimo.bsky.social will tell you, room 2.24 from 1400. @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social Paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

How would extreme events differ in warmer or cooler climates? Initial results from our project ReBASE are being shown at #EGU26 this afternoon. Catch Rhidian Thomas at his poster, X5.151 from 1615. ed-hawkins.github.io/ReBASE/resul...

This morning at #EGU26 @tamarahappe.bsky.social is presenting our work on operational multi-method #attriibution. Chat to her at poster X3.56 from 10.45! vikki-thompson.github.io/images/EGU26...

Last day to submit an abstract to EMS...

At least one person is super excited about the prospect of counterfactual reanalysis-based storylines! Discussing many potential uses within the energy sector today 🌬️☀️⚡ vikki-thompson.github.io/images/ReBAS...

Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.

Working on impact attribution of extreme weather events? Submit to our session at the EMS Annual Meeting in Utrecht in September! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2026/sess... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @sannemuis.bsky.social

⚡9 days left to submit your #EGU26 abstract, if you work on weather and climate hazards consider our session: www.egu26.eu/session/56049 @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social @regclimo.bsky.social

Two exciting postdoc positions available! Historical windstorms - working with two insurance companies to explore UK wind risks: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai... Extreme event storylines - working as part of a EU collaboration on event attribution: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Where have the greatest humid heat extremes been observed? Where is statistically likely to see unprecedented extremes? New study led by @regclimo.bsky.social investigates:

Can simple circulation analogues detect observed changes in extreme rainfall? In many cases, no. Rainfall is too complex and circulation alone cannot predict it. 🧵1/2 🌧️ New paper 🌧️ iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

We are very delighted to have @karinvdwiel.bsky.social and @regclimo.bsky.social as invited speakers in our #EGU26 session on NH11.2 Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards! Consider to present your fantastic work with us!! @nh.egu.eu @pik-potsdam.bsky.social

Looking for a #PhD in #ClimateExtremes? We are advertising a project attributing causes of recent #droughts using counter-factual storylines. Based in #Edinburgh, working with Andrew Schurer, me, @gabihegerl.bsky.social, & @edhawkins.org tinyurl.com/5n7b52fr

☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤 Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis doi.org/10.1002/wea....

👻🎃 It's that time of year again, time to start thinking about #EGU26! 🔥🌧️🌀 Our session on Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards is now open for abstract submissions 🔥🌧️🌀 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social

Experiencing extreme heat first hand today in Cantabria, and the 5 year old is enjoying quizzing me on a topic I am happy to discuss in detail - but I'm not sure if these could be fire clouds on the horizon?

Europe's current climate could produce a 'mega heatwave', feat. more than a month of +40C temps & intense drought Extra scary fact: The worst-case heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave. In other words, rolling waves of deadly heat www.newscientist.com/article/2491...

This week marks my last few days working at KNMI, after a fantastic few years exploring new methods with amazing colleagues and collaborators it's time for the next challenge. First, a holiday ☀️⛰️🚴‍♂️

Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de overstromingen in Limburg in 2021 nog veel ernstiger hadden kunnen zijn. Als het weer nét iets anders was verlopen, hadden de buien langer kunnen duren of op een andere plek kunnen vallen, met mogelijk grotere impact. 🔗 www.knmi.nl/over-het-knm...

📣 New paper: 💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared? doi.org/10.1038/s432...

Last night, for the second night running, temperatures didn't drop below 20°C in Utrecht 🇳🇱. 🥵🌃🌡️ Due to human activity the chances of such heat are increasing, taking us ever closer to the story told in: www.unseenheat.com @stichtingcas.bsky.social @timokelder.bsky.social

🌡️☀️ It is hot in Europe this week – but how much hotter would it be in the future? Using a weather model we can simulate tomorrow’s weather in a warmer climate. Tomorrow Paris is forecast to reach 37°C, in a world 1.5°C warmer the same weather patterns could lead to temperatures over 40°C.

#ShowYourStripes day on a #parkrun day made it easy to pick out a shirt. Climate change impacts sports. Extreme heat, happening increasingly often, forces events to adjust or cancel with little notice. Climate change impacts everyone.

🌧️🌍💧 Our new paper, led by Geert Lenderink, shows recent European extreme rainfall events have localised climate change responses beyond the expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate – potentially enhancing flash floods in a warmer climate. Read it here: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa... @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social

After a fantastic set of oral presentations the posters sessions in hall X3 now, perfect way to end your #EGU25!

Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43

Today we present an online tool for identifying circulation analogues, now available on Climate Explorer. I'll be at my #EGU25 poster, at X5.171, from 1615 (or after 1800 with my small assistant). climexp.knmi.nl/analoguesfor...

At #EGU25 this morning, hear me talk about ensemble boosting of extreme rainfall using only the thousand most common English words - PICO spot 3 at 11.08

I'm at #EGU25 this week, and today at 1400 I'll be discussing the western European July 2021 extreme rain in this session:

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

Are you interested in extreme event attribution and attending #EGU25? Come along to our networking session to discuss the strengths and challenges of different methods. meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... @marylouathanase.bsky.social

Super excited to be presenting our ensemble boosting work, 'Imagine rain falling in a different place', in this session:

Once again, I am taking my daughter to #EGU25. She has been busy making extreme weather posters 'just like mama'. Any other (ideally english/dutch speaking) ~5 yr olds booked into the childcare, who might fancy some lunchtime picnics?

Planning your #EGU25 travel? If you're interested in extreme event attribution, make sure to stay until Friday to come along to our networking session to discuss the value of multiple methods. @marylouathanase.bsky.social

Enjoyed being involved in this new perspective led by @timokelder.bsky.social, where we show the value of using multiple lines of evidence to assess plausible yet unprecedented extreme events that we need to be preparing for 🌍🌧️🌀🌡️

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather Kelder et al. discusses a multitude of ways that we could anticipate unprecedented weather events that might otherwise be a surprise rdcu.be/ecWQF

Perhaps a clue to understanding possible changes in Santa Ana winds that helped drive this January's Californian wildfires:

In @wwattribution.bsky.social report on the LA wildfires this January we show the frequency and intensity of the atmospheric circulation of the event has increased in winter, raising the risk of weather conditions that drive the spread of wildfire. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

This week at school Fritha is learning about polar animals... 'Mama and Dada have seen penguins in the wild, but only Dada has seen polar bears'. Perhaps not what her teacher expected!

Congratulations to @raedhamed.bsky.social for successfully defending his PhD! He carried out important research on the impacts of compound weather events on crop yields, looking forward to seeing the next stages of his research 🌽☀️🫘🌧️

Wildfires aren’t a problem in the UK, right? Wrong. Not on the same scale as we are seeing in LA, but there are thousands of wildfires every year in the UK. In the heatwave of July 2022 wildfires broke out in London. Our new paper explores the risks: doi.org/10.1002/cli2...

🌍🔥🌧️🌡️🌀 One week left to submit #EGU25 abstracts 🌀🌡️🌧️🔥🌍 Join our session on future weather and climate hazards! Featuring talks from Aglaé Jézéquel & Dominik Schumacher meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

#EGU25 Call for Abstracts open: Are you working on understanding high-risk climate extremes and their impacts? Then join our session! 🔵 High-impact climate extremes: from physical understanding and storylines to impacts and solutions 🎯Session: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... 🧪

#StormBert is bringing strong winds, rain, and snow to parts of Ireland and the UK over the weekend. Similar events have happened before, such as Storm Diana in 2018, but... (1/2)

Hi Bluesky, I've come over here to share our #EGU25 session. Are you researching weather and climate hazards? Submit an abstract to tell us about it! @tamarahappe.bsky.social @eunicelo.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social