Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has unveiled the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. It uses high-res model guidance to highlight where chances of intense rain rates are highest in major cities. It’s linked in “Forecast Tools” tab on the WPC home page. Direct link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/

The average July 2025 dew point temperature for the Lower 48 was 1.2F above the 1991-2020 normal. Most areas of the map are dark green or blue - except for the very dry Southwest.

If it seems like there’s been a lot of flash flooding recently, the numbers back it up. The NWS issued the most number of Flash Flood Warnings on record (1,199) for the 30-day period from June 17 to July 16. Yes, this is the peak of the usual flash flood season, but 2025 is more active than usual.

Paul Hollywood and Prue Leith are lodging an official protest

DON'T EAT ICICLES 💩 This is your annual reminder that icicles can potentially have poop in them 😅

you gotta love some topical humor for your chosen profession

🚨 IMPORTANT “FOOD” ALERT: drinkable mayo has dropped www.foodandwine.com/nomu-mayo-dr...

Massive away win for the little fella.

Today I’m thankful for the Packers fans sending their #mPING snow reports from Lambeau Field ❄️🏈

First real blast of cold air this season on tap after Thanksgiving into the Great Lakes region. With all of the lakes at record warm levels for late November, the ingredients are there for some significant lake effect snow rates.

Bomb cyclone goes boom. An incredible view of the deepening low pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest.

Storm total precipitation from Tropical Storm Sara in Honduras. More that 1000 millimeters (40 inches) in La Ceiba. (from COPECO)

Tropical Depression 19, likely to be named Sara at some point, is going to stall near the coast of Honduras, a well-known recipe for extreme rainfall. From the official advisory, for northern Honduras: “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides”

Two data points to ponder: —Cities from NYC to Wilmington just got the driest month in their 130- to 150-year weather histories. —The U.S. is having its warmest autumn on record by far. The past 2 mos are nearly 1F above any other Sep-Oct on record. yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/octo...

Really puts the current drought in Brazil in perspective. Longer term trend toward dryness is also interesting.

As someone who loves crisp, cool fall days, I must say this fall has been terrible

Rafael is only the 11th major (Cat 3 or stronger) hurricane in November in 174 years of recordkeeping. Cuba and Nicaragua have been the targets of these strong late season hurricanes before, but quite unusual to see one track westward through the central Gulf.

Washington D.C. gets the warmest temp so late in the year, registering 84 degrees before 1 PM at DCA.

October is the fasting warming month of the year for the #Arctic overall (land & sea north of 60ºN), with the average temperature now 4.8C (8.7F) higher than 50 years ago. This incredible change is driven in large part by the loss of sea ice. #ClimateChange @climatologist49.bsky.social

Devastating flash flooding in Spain. The extreme rain events are not going to stop. “Spanish weather service AEMET reported that Chiva, in the Valencia region, recorded 491mm (19.33”) of rain in just eight hours on Tuesday - the equivalent to a year's worth of rain.”

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP): At least 54,000 filed claims following Hurricane Helene. Already a Top 5 "NFIP filed claim" event on record. Katrina (2005): 208,348 Sandy (2012): 144,848 Harvey (2017): 92,396 Ike (2008): 58,126 Helene (2024): 54,000* Irene (2011): 52,493 Ian (2022): 48,721

October days across the CONUS can be very dry. Three of the driest 10 days since 2005 have occurred in October. Coming in 7th place for driest day in the past 7,236 days (back to 2005): October 11, 2024. Based on CONUS average.

Temperature Scales xkcd.com/3001

A lot of meteorologists are familiar with the history of the blizzard of 1978, but I wasn’t familiar with this nugget!

Hi new Bluesky users. Semi-annual reminder to follow my favorite part of this website: the Gift Links feed. It shows any free link to an otherwise paywalled article that’s shared by anyone on Bluesky. It has legit changed how I read the news. bsky.app/profile/did:...

Hello friends, an update on NCEI. Thank you to everybody who has reached out, and to those who have actively helped this region begin to get to a recovery phase. www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/update-...

This week I was able to use Sentinel-2 imagery in order to highlight the impact Helene had on the Appalachians. Comparing images from this time last year to now clearly shows the dramatic changes in the landscape after hundreds of landslides.

GLM first light from GOES-19 was released today! ⚡️👊 www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-re...

Two periods of record-breaking tropical cyclone activity, each one marked by historic category 5 hurricanes. In between, a record-breaking dearth of tropical activity. The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season sure threw us a curveball.

Updated rankings for 1-day 10-inch rainfall areas associated with tropical systems since 2005. #Milton places 8th, bumping 2018 #Florence out of the Top 10 based on this measure. This is the first new entry in the Top 10 since #Ian in 2022. #Helene spanned 2-3 days.

For those that are new to Bluesky or just checking it out again, an underrated feature is the Gift Article feed. bsky.app/profile/did:...

If you like basketball, the WNBA Finals Game 3 is pretty good right now in the 4th quarter

Did twitter do something dumb enough that I should delete my account instead of just locking and ignoring it?

It’s so good to see more and more familiar faces here every day! Bluesky-mentum?

You can always tell it’s October when the witch’s cauldron comes out

Aurora triggered my doorbell camera motion sensor. This was at 11:50 pm. This is sped up by 4x.

Using recon-derived estimates, here's a quick look at the hurricanes recon sampled so far this hurricane season for minimum sea level pressure (left) and maximum flight-level wind (right):

Preliminary estimates from NOAA's MRMS for the 4-day period between the PRE and #Helene. A good chunk of Western North Carolina (over 2500 square miles) experienced a 1in1000 year event #NCwx #SCwx #TNwx #VAwx

2.4 million electric customers remain without power in #Florida, of the over 3.9 million total electric customers effected by #HurricaneMilton. [2024-10-11 09:07 AM EDT] poweroutage.us #PowerOutages

The big aurora nights always make me happy and give me hope. Humanity collectively staring at the sky in wonder and appreciating the beauty of the universe.

Hey if you’re… anywhere in the U.S right now?? … you might want to look up at the night sky tonight because there are aurora borealis sightings in so many places.

As of 10 PM, 1.5 million customers without power in Florida according to outage aggregator @poweroutage.us. This will probably climb higher as #Milton’s strongest winds move further inland.

VERY heavy rain rates are expected to build up the Interstate-4 corridor this evening and overnight toward Orlando. Weather Prediction Center: “is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

Unsurprisingly — given rain rates observed up around 5 INCHES AN HOUR!!! — a Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for much of the Tampa metro area. About 2 million people. This is the highest tier of Flash Flood Warning and signals incredibly serious and dangerous flash flooding.

It’s gotta feel like a waterfall there right now. Based on what was measured in St. Pete, the radar seems to be underestimating hourly rates even though it has them up around 3 inches. Almost certainly higher in the core of that band.

St. Petersburg, Florida’s Albert Whitted Airport right near downtown (KSPG) had 5.09” rain in an hour from 7:53 PM to 8:53 PM, and peak gust of 94 MPH in the same hour. What’s left of the northwest eyewall of #Milton is pummeling the greater Tampa Bay region. Intense downpours and powerful gusts.

We could have a strong geomagnetic storm and a landfalling major hurricane within 24 hours (or so) of each other.