Big banking data day. Here's the all important credit flow - how much $ banks pump into the economy - net of repayments. We'll start with the biggie: mortgages. The monthly data has leapt into the neutral/positive range as interest rates drop and folks 'buy the bottom'. [🧵 1/n]

Bad Santa - in today’s NZ Herald

Tax revenue is sagging badly, and Govt is throwing money into mostly low value capital projects as it attempts to get the economy moving... while, you know, appearing to be frugal. Govt deficit spend is well above 2nd cvid lockdown levels. Funny that. [2/2]

Housing market with bits tacked on.

We are so back. In other words, we have stopped falling. It is truly remarkable that NZ almost uniquely plunged its economy into a sustained recession in response to a global inflation shock that other countries just rode out. And, now we are celebrating ending our self-flaggelation. [1/2]

FYI

This is how the Government’s finances actually work.

Wednesday’s @thetimes.com cartoon times.newsprints.co.uk/peter-brooke...

Breaking news: President Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, a dramatic escalation in his months-long pressure campaign against the government of President Nicolás Maduro.

Imagine finishing your benefit forecasts for HYEFU, closing your laptop, and heading to floor 8 for a few miserable xmas treats... then the actual data comes out and blows your calculations out of the water! [NB: Actual data varies slightly from forecast data, but not by much)

Distortion. Newsday.com/matt

IRD's liquidation activity has stepped up by about 30% in the last year.

Vanessa Smith-Glitenkamp deserves our respect and attention: “Aotearoa welcomed my family as immigrants. … I will not stand by quietly and enable behaviour that disrespects tangata whenua.”

Tova O'Brien announced as new Breakfast presenter

FYI in today’s Chorus email/podcast… Economist says RBNZ guidance of interest rates higher a 'mistep' & hurts economy pre-Christmas; Hipkins says 'NZ can't afford to be aspirational again'; 64% of ACT voters want more state homes #nzpol

FYI I’ve opened this one up to all to read, listen & share after requests from paying subscribers to make it publicly available as part of my public interest journalism mandate. Many thanks to paying subscribers who allow me to put some of this work in public. #nzpol

Donny Roger

See it now? No? Still nothing?

A Saturday Soliloquy: Richardson & Willis debt debate assumes 1991-style austerity worked, that NZ faces being locked out of global markets, that the NZ Super Fund doesn't exist & that households can borrow much more #nzpol open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/...

This is the US data on visitors from NZ. I can't see people being more enthused to visit.

Scoop: A prospective offshore wind developer has announced it will shut its operations in New Zealand by the end of the year, making it the third firm to exit in the past 14 months. newsroom.co.nz/2025/12/12/o...

Friday’s @thetimes.com cartoon times.newsprints.co.uk/morten-morla...

Chop shop

In today’s NZ Herald

Geeky post, but amazes me how much stock gets placed in GDP. A great example: wild ride in GDP during Cvid (yellow line). It was almost entirely a measurement issue. GDP excludes Govt spending considered a subsidy. If you recognise the subsidy as spending you get a trend that reflects reality.

Here’s today’s Dawn Chorus & Early Bird email & podcast in full for paying subscribers: Breman ok with 50 bps rise in wholesale 'swap' rates driving fixed mortgage rates; Westpac's 30 bps rise in fixed rates key question for Govt before Xmas BBQs; Willis says 'shop around' #nzpol

Ha!

Close ally?

Oof.

New Taxpayers Union/Curia poll out: Labour - 31.6 (-1.7) National - 30.0 (-0.2) Greens - 10.8 (+1.6) Act - 8.9 (+0.3) NZFirst - 8.3 (-1.0) TPM - 3.1 (-0.2) Centre right 61 seats to 59 Centre left Notable for Greens up, not sinking as in 1News poll

In today’s NZ Herald

I explained to the leopard about my face and -- you're not going to believe this -- he didn't care!

Australia’s world-first teen social media ban begins.

Australia beat England in the first Test in two days, but took four days to beat them in the second Test. At this rate, Australia will soon be needing all five days to beat England. Matthew Hamilton, Kew The Age letters

Heatwave? hard rain? Blame #climatechange Sea Surface Temp anomalies out in the Tasman: 2.7˚C above normal earth.nullschool.net#current/ocea... #nzpol

Real rents collapsing in Wellington. It is a dying city. Because a Government delivered a coup-de-grace, on top of the quake & insurance hit. And a long-running housing supply growth restraint.

A fascinating picture of our two biggest cities. Adjusted for wage inflation...

IRD the only Govt department that got the budget requests they've asked for the last couple of years.

TIL about a memorial ceremony in Iceland in 2019 to mark the end of a glacier, changing the place name from Okjökull to Ok (jökull = glacier). Uncompromising wording on the bronze plaque: "This is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it".

WOW! THANK YOU!! — GCN

Early Bird post out in full only online for paying subscribers only: Bishop expected to unveil replacement for RMA this week; 1News poll due tonight; Coster says Mitchell & Hipkins knew about McSkimming, which they deny or disavow; ASB sees 2.5% growth in 2026. #nzpol

FYI, I’ve opened this one up to all to read, listen and share after requests from paying subscribers to make it publicly available, as part of my public interest journalism mandate. Many thanks to subscribers who pay to allow me to do this. #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/ird-hunts-...

Here's the story of the last few years. The mortgage pain peaked in late Nov 2024 - 17 months after RBNZ finished ramping up the OCR. That's what the reckonomists call a 'long and variable lag' - it's also why it is obvious to anyone with a brain that monetary policy is very, very stupid.

One of the obvious impacts of Govt not investing into a downturn is tanking taxes (= higher deficits). Countless examples across the world, but sadly most of our reckonomics commentariat are small island caveman monetarists, so, prices going up? Ug. Throw kiwis on the dole, ug, crash economy. [🧵1/n]

In today’s HeraldOnSunday

The NZ Govt is reneging on climate commitments, which could have trade and legal risks for the country. Not to mention contributing to us all frying or drowning. My #cartoon today #NZpol #Climate

Despite a brief pandemic-induced recession, higher inflation and rising borrowing costs since 2020, the wealthy have gotten considerably wealthier. Here's how much you now need to be in the top 10% of wealthy Americans.

Early Bird out online only for paying subscribers. Public Health Agency cuts crisis planning jobs from 11 to two & Māori health from six to two; Pollution limits relaxed in new national standards; 'Beers at the Basin' cancelled; Rent slide accelerates. #nzpol

This week I discuss Inland Revenue's proposals to change the tax treatment of loans made by companies to shareholders. A genuine bombshell announcement with huge ramifications and one which essentially has immediate effect. soundcloud.com/user-2622281...