This week's lies, damn lies, and green shoots award goes to Brad Olsen (via Susan Edmunds). This is a particularly disgusting use of data - like so bad that the article should be removed. Let's have a look... [🧵 1/n]

When the ghouls say we need to grow the economy before we can afford the basics for our people, remember that our economy has made our households - on AVERAGE - amongst the richest in the world. Our issue is not the size of the pie, it's the size of the slice that goes to the rentiers.

Liam in fine form. Newton's Third Law explains that for every action force, there is an equal and opposite reaction force. That's fine, sure, but I doubt our capacity to implement it.

Yes, 90,000 kiwis unemployed + another 190,000 wanting more work in 2023 was 'utterly unsustainable'. While 115,000 unemployed + another 200,000 wanting more work in 2019 'seemed overheated'. I mean, jeez, what if the plebs got any big ideas and the shitty, underpaid, precarious jobs went unfilled?

These two graphs show the 'recovery is here' vs sliding sideways issue nicely. Change in jobs (1) looks like it might push hard into positive growth, but the (dominant) service jobs data hints at the more likely outcome for 2026... settling at the current state. Basically no real growth at all.

MSD have been delaying their December benefits data release due to data processing issues but they shared headline numbers yesterday. If the data is correct, this is a huuuge increase. We now have nearly 1 in 7 adults on a working age benefit. Link in ALT. (🧵 1/n)

Youth unemployment rate is now over 16% (1 in 6). The underutilisation rate - young people wanting work or more work - is 38% ffs - 190,000 young kiwis. That's nearly half of the total. It took a fking decade for youth unemployment to recover last time. Same plan this time. No plan.

Employment and unemployment rates often misunderstood. Employment rates depend on number of ppl working relative to working age population. Unemployment rate ignores people who have given up looking for work. Cheers.

Household living costs data, proper 🧵 First, household living cost index better reflects reality cos CPI does not include cost of debt (that would confuse the reckonomists). Here's the data for the average household - it peaked at 8% in 2022 thanks to fuel, food and interest (mortgage) costs. [1/n]

Household living cost data out. Wild that the RBNZ response to increases in the cost of living is to, errrm, increase the cost of living.

The pundits are basically talking about whether unemployment will stay at 5.3% or drop to 5.2%. The administrative data we have on jobs, individual ird tax etc points to 5.3%, but official unemployment rate is a survey so it can move around. Every 0.1% is ~3,000 people & this excludes... (🧵 1/n)

Quick look at credit data. First up, how much interest is being added to loans per month? About $470 per person and falling as interest rates adjust to OCR. Remember: lower debt costs means businesses & mortgagors have more $ to spend (and savers have less $ added to savings). So what? [🧵 1/n]

Banking data day. What's going on? Let's start with the $21.5bn (4.6%) increase in NZ bank account balances. That's $4,000 per kiwi. Where DID that money come from? Our wealth creators? God? Let's have a look... [🧵 1/n]

Wild celebrations ensue.

Record breaking average mortgages for re-financing and property purchases. Top-ups are picking up too but still below mid-2022 levels of craziness. Second graph is same data adjusted for inflation.

Big bank data day. I'll post a few reckons this evening. First, banks are now pumping more shiny new $ into the economy through mortgage loans than they are destroying when mortgagors make payments. December was also a crazy month for new mortgages (image 2) - I suspect some refinancing weirdness.

Today, RBNZ will create $2m out of thin air and pay it as interest to private banks that hold deposits (reserve balances) at RBNZ. Paying interest on reserves is part of how RBNZ keeps overnight / short-term interest rates above OCR (2.25%). Tomorrow, they'll do the same. And, then the next day etc.

Hidden gem of a dataset - IRD data on people by primary income source. First chart shows annual change in people, second the % change in the number of people with salary and benefit as primary income source. As I keep saying, we're a long way from crossing into the positive.

Another chart to challenge the hopium. The commentariat have seen things turning *towards better* and assumed that means we will get there any time soon. Those lines look like they are trending to slide sideways to me. That would mean no real job growth and continued increase in benefit dependency.

A lot of reckons on inflation. What if we just assume that the price we pay for stuff depends on a bunch of stuff - price of imports, NZ workers' wages, debt repayments, and how much businesses make in profits? 20 minutes of spreadsheeting the crudest of models gives you this output. [🧵 1/n]

The actual BNZ report on job ads vs RNZ story on the very same report. 'Hint of a flattening trend at relatively low levels' vs 'jobs market is showing... signs of improvement... should lead to lower unemployment by the middle of the year'.

We keep hearing about green shoots, but there is a big gap between business survey vibes and actual data... The numbers keeps on saying 'nah'. Note that credit card spending is at an all time high as a % of card transactions but still trending down. Image 2 zooms in. Image 3 is rolling annual.

You might be amazed to learn that the answer is more milk and trusting farmers to do even more great things.

What's pulled CPI up over last 25 years? Basically the cost of services and property. Now look at what's pulled CPI down (image 2). Thanks world! Now, what happens if world stops selling us ever cheaper stuff *and* prices rise to reflect infra catch-up cost (rates) and climate risk (insurance)?

Anyone seen 'a much stronger economy' anywhere? Maybe I've missed it.

Well this is great. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...

Average new NZ mortgage breaking records in November 2025 - a record that will probably be broken again when the December data comes out this Thursday. Investors, in particular, are maxing out their lending. Note that this data is 'actuals' image 2 shows data adjusted for CPI. [1/2]

Media has had a few good days of 'interest rates gonna go up soon cos... inflation' stories. Liam is at it in the Herald this morning - 'economy can't recover quickly cos... inflation' (with a side helping of Luxo-love). There's a few graphs they need to understand.... [🧵 1/n]

Folks in [insert place here] are no strangers to this normal, 'it happens sometimes' weather. They have always shown resilience and will continue to do so. I listened to what folks wanted from Govt today and what I heard loud and clear was 'stay out of the way'. All good. Back to the 'copter.

Always worth a re-post when we get an update. Amazes me that Govt get away with saying they have done anything notable to 'tame inflation'. Our peak was relatively low (we weren't exposed to global gas prices 😌), and, over the last year, Govt decisions have demonstrably increased CPI.

Quick check-in on the old tax revenue. Sliding sideways like everything else (image 1). Tax on income is now above 50% like the late-90s (image 2). Corporate, income tax and GST look to be trending to standstill. in real terms (image 3 and 4). No sign of any resurgence here.

What is it with reckonomists and their incessant 'did A cause B' stupidity? Any sober analysis shows that profits contributed to price rises, wages followed (as they do), and, in countries with high debts like NZ, interest rate rises added to the fire. Multivariate interactions, system dynamics etc

The end of the cheapening era? We are not prepared.

Random public info msg... The guys at Stats NZ work out how much each NZ industrial sector is spending, selling, and paying out in wages. Here's the 'utilities' sector for example. The whole sector spends $4,000 per kiwi on stuff, another $500 on wages, and makes a $1,300 operating profit. [🧵 1/n]

Quick CPI update. Basically, a mixture of some global pressures, and administered price increases. Govt could pay for more infra catchup (for eg) but is instead forcing councils to hike rates.

When your press release makes it straight onto the front page.

Looking forward to the CPI data tomorrow. I suspect that this laser-focused on the cost of living picture will feature.

People. are. dying. A negotiator friend used to say that in the Paris Agreement carbon markets negotiations when the debate veered into obstructionism and game-playing. There were sometimes embarrassed laughs: it was hard to equate the bean-counting work being done there to life and death. 1/-

Commentariat getting excited about the odd positive spike in the data - we're so back etc. The assumption is that we are at the start of a classic post-slump surge - like 1992, 1999, 2010, 2013 and 2021). But, what if we're not? Let's have a quick look... [tidier version of 🧵 yesterday - 1/n]

They'd get my vote.

We're down a billion in revenue, but, don't worry, agencies are spending $2.3bn less than expected on people and services, so... we're winning $1.1bn! Govt will work out one day where the money to pay taxes comes from. Govt spends money into the economy, and *then* taxes it back out again ffs.

Weekly jobs data not as brutal as the card spending data - but anyone who thinks these lines are going to smash into the positive and move on up in the next few months needs their head checking. My confidence in the sliding sideways trajectory grows by the day.

Brutal data day continues. Twenty-twenty-sux here we come. This is card spending. Remember, we live in a consumer economy. No spendy, no jobby.

Wow. Do we need to turn Auckland off and on again?

Election date added to a favourite chart. No NZ Government in recent times has survived an election held during a fall or pause in real house price growth. Will employment pick-up in time to get house prices moving? Will 'corporate word salad' prevail over 'nice, but saying nothing'? Stay tuned.

Chinking glasses headlines yesterday in the Herald. The services sector is back bay-beee! It's not though. Celebrating a monthly spike in a really noisy dataset is a bit silly. Here's the 3-month rolling average - with the monthly change in 'faint'. Let's have a sober 'recovery check'. [🧵 1/n]

Raising taxes on rentiers would snuff out the recovery, but making working people save more is 'ambitious for the future' . Clown show. Come. On. Commentariat. This ain't hard.

If the PM spends any word salad time today talking about the books, spending, affordability, getting wealthy etc, here's a handy cut out and keep summary of the country's books. Note that our households and Govt are amongst the wealthiest in the world. Just saying.

Not totally terrible, but a few missing points and several almighty clangers. First up, for the love of Bod, can we stop talking about one half of the balance sheet and focus on the net position? NZ Govt has more financial assets than liabilities. How unusual is this? Let's have a look [🧵 1/n]

Watching Govt budget strategy fail miserably in real time. Utterly predictable... Govt constrain investment into a downturn (2023/24) ➡️ prolongs downturn and suppresses tax take ➡️ deficits go up again (2024/25). Worth a quick look at what's going on here. [🧵1/n]