Paywall lifted: At every turn, the Govt has opted for whatever would actually lead to more pollution and a warmer world – even if it costs more, jeopardises NZ’s reputation, overturns a campaign promise or clashes with the Govt’s other priorities. The long retreat: newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...

Regular reminder that RBNZ publish real data on mortgage costs. National and the bank reckonomists love to talk about the costs of *new* mortgages only, but what drives the cost of living is what kiwis *actually* pay on our $384bn mortgage pile. Here's the real data... [🧵1/n]

Lol, imagine thinking you could simply restart investment after crashing the construction sector and holding back loads of work. Fafo.

RBNZ to the Waitangi Tribunal...

I'll vote for whoever sets a target to get youth unemployment back below 10% in one year. I can't do ten years of centrist, round the next corner drivel. Waiting for businesses to get desperate enough to give young, disengaged or disabled people a job is fkng stupid. There is loads that needs doing.

The trickle down economy is a real thing but it gets described badly. Here's how it actually works: *First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]

Another signal that we are about to have another rollercoaster climb in the housing market... or will that steady downward trend in investment (pink) since 2012 win out? Tune in next year to find out.

We've just started 'unsaving'. The pink line is the interest added by banks to NZ savings & term deposit balances (rolling annual). The blue line is the annual change in savings and term deposit balances. When the blue line goes below the pink, kiwis are withdrawing savings (net) [🧵 1/n]

Quick update & explainer on RBNZ/Govt monetary shenanigans. The white dotted line shows the net amount of $ that RBNZ/Govt created and added to commercial bank reserves over the last wee while (rolling annual). The other lines are contributors to that change in bank reserves. I'll explain... [🧵 1/n]

Total outstanding housing loans were up 5.4% year-on-year in Sept 25, but all of that increase (and a bit more) was interest added to loans by banks. With interest rates dropping, and over-payments calming, we are getting close to seeing a net positive flow of mortgage credit. [🧵1/n]

Random benefit numbers update now that we have population estimates for 2025. First image covers places where benefit numbers have increased by more than the NZ average between 2023 and 2025 (population adjusted using Stats NZ estimates). [1/2]

Interesting how roads need to be designed for a surge capacity (that they will still likely not meet) but hospital staffing has to be reduced to bare bones that struggles to meet median demand….🤔

Hey google, define: pork barrel politics

Quick jobs numbers addendum. The Govt constrained public sector budgets, but it was private sector jobs that took the recession hit mostly. That's why Auckland is struggling to recover while Wellington is stabilising. [1/3]

Should be going all in on this line - unearned income is a drain on our economy.

It's Thursday, it's weekly jobs day! We're approaching peak jobs season. We should see a decent pick-up in numbers over the next couple of months. How high the peak goes will give us some idea of how 2026 will start. [🧵1/3]

The NZ Govt spent $183bn into the economy in the year ending June 2025 and took back about $170bn in taxes, charges and dividends etc. This left the private sector $13bn better off. If more people understood this basic reality, we could have sensible Govt spending discussions.

Let's celebrate the update (finally) of Stats NZ Household Living Costs Price Index - a better measure of the cost of living than CPI. First thing to notice is that a big chunk of the increase in our cost of living was thanks to RBNZ hiking interest rates to tackle the cost of living! [🧵 1/n]

When the heroes at Stats NZ are screaming at the world to take notice. A clear separation between the cost of living for the wealthy and sorted folks who are seeing a rapid easing, and the bottom-feeders who are getting properly screwed.

Backlog reckons cont... Topical reminder that Govt turns the rationing screw when Ministers demand it. See the point in mid-2024 when someone clearly decided that Govt simply couldn't have any more people on ACC? Numbers have flatlined since and we're heading for year-on-year reductions. [1/n]

Backlog reckons cont... Net Financial Worth 🧵 Politicians tell us the coffers are empty to justify their inaction (blue) or timidity (red). NZ Govt has a high net financial worth - more *financial* assets than liabilities (debts). This basic fact is ignored by the media for some reason. More.. [1/n]

Backlog of reckons day. First up, who paid / received interest in the year ending June 2025? Little known fact: households came out OK *net*. That masks mortgagors getting smashed while savers won big ofc. Businesses got smashed too - that's how RBNZ persuade them to stop putting prices up lol [1/2]

So, Labour will fiddle around with how to spend 0.4% of the budget in 2027 (futures fund) and then get cracking on a capital gains tax that will increase revenue by around 0.6% by 2030. We could get maybe 20km of new road for that. 'The tranquilising drug of gradualism'.

How do we run continuous current account deficits without blowing out our debt to the rest of the world? Basically, the international financial assets we own (shares, bonds etc) increase in value by more than domestic financial assets owned by offshore investors. Our GDP increases too.

What are they doing over the ditch? They could have had a flacid Emissions Trading Scheme instead of these ridiculous, distorting subsidies. Idiots.

A full year of electioneering about slurpluses and deffyzits ahead. Worth asking why all the media time is given to that little pink stub on the left.

Ah, nature is healing. The pink line is the total annual value of new mortgages - cash created by banks from thin air and deposited into bank accounts of home buyers / sellers. The blue line is mortgage repayments (deleted cash). We are definitely back to borrowing big to buy houses. [🧵 1/n]

Happy Friday to the super wealthy country where 150,000 children live in poverty. That's about 1-in-8 young kiwis. Obviously, there is simply nothing to be done about this.

And of course, the rent-seeking and market power of the government-blessed monopoly businesses (supermarkets, gentailers, building materials) is effectively a system of multiple private taxes on innovation and creativity across the entire economy.

You know, there’s this pervasive view that people don’t care about climate change / are bored of it / find it overwhelming but I wrote this story this week and social media went crazy over it. People care!!!! They really care are they need a way to channel it www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

Jobs update. Still sliding sideways in the winter winds. We should see the usual seasonal surge in the next couple of months. What should we look for? (🧵 1/n)

Reminder of how much that pulse of inward migration in 2023 and resultant increase in income tax revenue helped the government books. The next 6 months will be interesting as Govt financial forecasts wobble (1/n)

Musings on the Future Fund: As a country, we run a current account deficit. We send more money abroad than we receive. To close the gap, we have to sell assets to offshore investors to 'get our money back'. We mostly sell financial assets like NZ company shares, equity, Govt Bonds etc. (🧵 1/n)

Damn, I read Judith's letter! I'll leave the politics to others, but, lord, the Govt spending stuff is REALLY BAD! I'll try and keep this short. First up, this bare-faced lie. The countries in the pink circle have a similar-sized economy to NZ. Govt spending is a lot higher in all but one . [🧵 1/n]

This is a sobre, factual and fair assessment of where we are (link in alt text). I'll add a few missing bits later - mostly on the role of housing lending and how cheaper oil is providing a tailwind. The key question now is 'when will we see a period of real job growth'?

Another myth that won't die... that unemployment was too low in 2022 and 2023 and this was key driver of higher wages and inflation. In actual fact, real wage growth was negative throughout that period. What actually happened? [🧵 1/n]

Since we appear to be back in 2009/10, it is worth noting that it took the addition of 600,000 jobs over 14 years from 2009 to 2023 to get the number of unemployed people down by 52,000. [1/2]

RBNZ boosting credit into the property ponzi as per the plan. Govt standing idly by, clueless.

Adopt this simple rule to be a ghoul: Assets, whether they be financial, physical, human, or natural, exist only and always to provide a return to capital. Public ownership of assets is a breach of this golden ghoul rule and an abhorrence. Amen.

NZ food price rises cooled a bit this month. Not sure why there was any surpise - we only have to look at changes in global food prices nine months ago to tell us what is coming. We pay import cost + margin with a lag, and, as many people have learned recently, higher export prices hit us too.

It's Thursday, it's another weekly jobs update. Meh. Sliding sideways. Sorry kids, the good times weren't just around the next corner after all. Next one though. Most definitely. There's tantalising glimmers though... (1/n)

Few quick offcuts from last few days... 1. Jobseeker claimants over the long-term - actual and annual change. That yellow target is the Govt KPI. Basically, we need a 2000s style boom to get 'on track'. Ain't happening. [🧵 1/3]

More waves crashing on the sandcastles of hopium. I'm famously pessimistic, but the data continues to surprise me to the downside. It's relentless. We've not seen anything like this for 45 years. Compounding, mutually reinforcing, job-killing dynamics. (1/2)

Can’t wait to see the regulatory impact statement that outlines the impact of this decision on everyone who isn’t a farmer www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

OK, due to popular demand, let's work through these five reasons to be positive...🧵 1. The Official Cash Rate has dropped, praise be! Now, people do not often say to me 'there's been 250 basis points of...' but let's explore this 'stimulatory territory' thingy. [1/n]

The Government of New Zealand has made a new tourism ad and it's surprsingly honest and informative!

Wellington is clearly stabilising as the public sector anchors the economy. Auckland is drifting badly, looks waaaaay off stability. The data in these two charts is annual change (%) btw.

Latest benefits data is out. More detail later, but suffice to say that we are going to need some new forecasts.

Net Govt interest payments on debt are back to typical levels - well under 1% of total Govt spending. Always worth cancelling out the interest Govt receives (and pays each other). The net interest payment figure ($1bn net) is very tiny compared to... [🧵1/n]

Nation upset at the inevitable result of its own actions