H/t @arpitrage.bsky.social for the callback. Was it all priced in, this whole time?

"I can't see out my window right now, but the last time I could, the weather was fine, so I'm assuming it hasn't snowed and the weather is fine right now"

this is all happening because 80,000 people in the 6 states where votes actually count googled "joe bidon still presdinant?" on election day morning

Systematically in the US we see outcomes where a bad status quo is selected over an imperfect improvement because the failures of a bad status quo cannot be laid at the feet of any specific person.

anyone working in security knows that tools can be used for good or for evil but dont forget they are often used for stupid

It’s funny how the woo woo people said for years that big pharma was holding back a cancer cure because treatment was more profitable, and then they went and created those conditions through their own death-drive idiocy

It remains so funny to me how many people who claim to be socialists thought the Biden Administration was a disaster for the working class when the objective truth is it was a disaster for the bosses.

Another @carlosmucha.bsky.social banger theory on Twitter/X: The White House has the authority to force any federal agency to detail their 1811s (Special Agents) to ICE. Agencies don't want their agents to be seen participating, so no jackets and yes face coverings. x.com/mucha_carlos...

I'm tilting at windmills again, trying to convince people that phones don't spy on you through your microphone to target ads at you simonwillison.net/2025/Apr/26/...

see bio

Just to build on this, one of the reasons the death camps were built in the occupied territories was because the Nazi command knew they were illegal under German law and the nominally-still-extant Weimar constitution

Starting to get a bit calmer and it’s probably the mother of all rush to cash from blowing up hedgies. Usually Fed would just fix this but usually we don’t have the mother of all supply shocks at the same time.

see, this is exactly what I’m talking about

i think i speak for most americans when i say i hate anyone who is so stupid that he makes me care about treasury bonds

i think the basic thesis of the trump admin as a reaction to the biden admin is that doing things "right" is too hard and time consuming, therefore doing things "wrong" must work and also be faster

The issue is that the logical alternative based on the primary beneficiaries of the Suez trade, joint Sino-European naval missions that patrol the Red Sea, would probably freak people out even more.

quick headline about the third-rate florida school in question and its relationship to the ivy league

Giant thread from a pair of travellers trying to get from Berlin to as far south as they can in Africa. Very cool to check on from time to time.

Someone at work tried to figure out the internals of an LLC by asking it about itself and it just hallucinated information......

“I feel bad for our country. But this is tremendous content.”

i think everyone is surprised that a diffusion model can actually produce passable work because every extant diffusion model is tuned specifically to produce garbage because none of the people working on them actually respect art

It's the moustache lore

In addition to “biased,” I expected to see that woke term “difference-in-differences.”

It's true that the US can inflict more pain on the rest of the world than the ROW can inflict on the US, but on the other hand, a macroeconomic shock in ROW is known as 'just another Monday', whereas the US will overthrow their system of constitutional government because egg prices went up.

Fuck man I guess this is on us, we accidentally forgot to hit the make this cost 99% less button

Lol, I thought my downstairs neighbors had badly loaded their washer #earthquake #somerville

I'm fully aware that this is a total waste of my time, but I wrote a blog post about this anyway: simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/2/t...

This is a good example of what Andrew Gelman calls a “piranha problem”: If the effect of mealtimes is this big, then nothing else can have a substantial effect - there’s only so much variation to explain. So this is disproven by basically any other study. daniellakens.blogspot.com/2017/07/impo...

600 miles / 8 hours = 75 mph average speed You can do this in America too, it's called the Acela. Great job Germany.

with Christmas over, decor is starting to come down, and hopefully *carefully* 🎄🎄🎄 👉 accidents related to Christmas trees, lights and ornaments send thousands of Americans to emergency departments each year

VPN vendors have huge budgets to advertise on your favorite podcasts. We don't have marketing for the IETF, browser and OS security teams, CAs (Let's Encrypt), CDNs, researchers, open source authors, website builders, digital rights activists... We made the web secure and didn't tell anyone.

Very funny that the US is tied up trying to sell a boat as it becomes an increasingly embarrassing white elephant for them

This is madness. If other countries want to sell us solar on the cheap so we can expedite adoption of clean energy, let them. Either climate change is a crisis, or it isn't. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

want to note again that many of the economic-determinism arguments start by presupposing the conclusion--"it MUST have an economic explanation!"--and then go p-hacking until they finally find some obscure variable that got worse the last four years

Not only have high tariffs on Chinese-made cars deprived American consumers of affordable new EVs, but they’ve deprived US automakers of the competitive pressures necessary to force them into producing vehicles that they can actually sell abroad www.wsj.com/business/aut...

I'm totally done with X/Twitter. I will still be doing my banking there, though.

It looks as if this place is becoming what Twitter used to be; for now, at least, we can post stuff to a sigificant audience without being overrun by trolls and bots. For starters, here's my complete theory of the election, and probably my last word on the subject

It’s important to remind the Yankees fans in your life that there is precedent for a team coming back from down 0-3 in a playoff series. They need and love to hear it.

Preregistering my 2024 election takes: • Harris wins • Dems win House, lose Senate • Nat'l polls are accurate and Harris wins by 3-4% of PV • Otherwise polls are too biased towards Trump as a 2016 overcorrection • Florida and NY both go redder, which erodes Trump's electoral college advantage.

Today is World Standards Day. Except in the USA, which will celebrate World Standards Day on Nov 14

I think it was probably this one.

You wake up from panicking about the future, but futures themselves don't have that luxury... if they panic, they can't wake up ever again.

Good morning!