Si guerre il devait y avoir avec le Venezuela: "La différence avec Biden et Obama est que ceux-ci diraient qu'ils se sont laissés entraîner ou ont dû gérer des guerres qu'ils n'ont pas choisies. Trump ne subit pas cette situation, il la provoque." @taravarma.bsky.social

Nouvel épisode de "Zone de turbulences" avec @alexjubelin.bsky.social pour @lerubicon.bsky.social: Au menu du jour: - le plus long shutdown de l'histoire américaine; - les vélliétés américaines au Vénézuela et dans les Caraïbes; - le déplacement du secrétaire à la Défense, Pete Hegseth, en Asie.

« Que Jordan Bardella ose citer Marc Bloch est un outrage à toutes les victimes de la France collaboratrice des nazis »

Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?

Largest study of its kind shows AI assistants misrepresent news content 45% of the time – regardless of language or territory www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/...

🔴 Voici le nouveau #gouvernement 👇

🇫🇷 Two women will lead defense policy in the new government: Catherine Vautrin as armed forces minister and Alice Rufo as her deputy.

Dans un nouveau numéro de "Zone de turbulences" avec @taravarma.bsky.social, #LeCollimateur revient sur le discours de Pete Hegseth aux officiers généraux américains, ainsi que sur le changement dans la culture militaire américaine qu'il veut entériner. lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

J’attendais une analyse du discours du Mister Tatouage et je l’ai. J’ai senti comme une angoisse de @taravarma.bsky.social , une émotion et en même temps une analyse froide de ce qui est un coup d’état au ralenti.

Pour apporter quelques précisions suite à cet épisode très intéressant du Collimateur avec @taravarma.bsky.social. Dans l'extrait du discours de Pete Hegseth, on l'entend parler de deux choses importantes : - La règle des vitres cassées (broken windows policy) - Les soldats bien rasés. 1/7

Il y a énormément de choses dans ce discours (et dans l'épisode qui en découle), mais — peut-être par déformation professionnelle — grosse fascination personnelle pour l'imaginaire historique qu'il déploie et la fixation sur la guerre du Golfe comme mètre-étalon pour les armées américaines.

Dernier épisode de « Zone de turbulences » avec @alexjubelin.bsky.social pour #LeCollimateur @lerubicon.bsky.social sur les discours de D. Trump et P. Hegseth aux officiers généraux américains cette semaine, soulignant le changement culturel qu’ils souhaitent apporter aux armées 🇺🇸 À écouter 🎧👇🏽

With @sophiabesch.bsky.social we pursue our exploration of the transformation of the transatlantic relationship in the Trump 2 administration, with a chapter called: "A new transatlantic axis: revisionism and realignment": @brookings.edu @carnegieendowment.org www.orfonline.org/research/the...

“Instead of engaging on Washington’s terms, Kim, Putin, and Xi are now linking arms in Beijing, flaunting not only their growing willingness to challenge U.S. leadership but also their ability to do so in concert,” writes Patricia Kim.

Clickbait headlines are a major source of misinformation and misrepresentation. Useful headlines would have been: 1. Young men support Reform less than other men. 2. Age is much more important for Reform support than sex. 3. Reform is most popular party among 50+ men and women.

How does NATO monitor and defend its airspace? It operates a large, diverse & growing network of sensors & interceptors on air, sea and land—but also one with significant limitations when it comes to countering low-level drone incursions in peacetime. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

Trump or no Trump, Europe’s relationship with the US will never recover. My latest @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

👀 It wasn't just Poland’s airspace that Russia entered this week. It was cyberspace, too. Russian drones entered Polish airspace in the early hours Wednesday ... then NASK national research institute analysts spotted increased levels of disinformation.

NATO has launched an initiative to reinforce the defense of Europe's eastern flank after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on Friday. https://cnn.it/47BO15e

Is transatlantic cooperation on China possible? Or will divisions push America and Europe in different directions on China? The Global China Project convened 6 of us in the foreign policy program at @brookings.edu to weigh in: www.brookings.edu/articles/bet...

1/ Poland has invoked NATO's Article Four, which triggers consultations among allies. It is highly unlikely this will be taken as an "armed attack" meeting the threshold of Article Five. So the question is what NATO does after these consultation. Some ideas below.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants the EU to help front-line countries monitor and defend their borders against potential Russian aggression — backing a long-standing request from Poland and Baltic nations. www.politico.eu/article/von-...

In case you haven't heard, there's yet another political crisis in #France. This @huffpost.com article tackles what is ahead for Paris, with comments from me and others: @brookings.edu www.huffpost.com/entry/france...

As SCOTUS hands this particular president more and more power to suspend rights and use force, remember that SCOTUS helped (w/Congress) dismantle checks on the presidency, and then gave this president immunity. Enablers at the destruction. @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Bayrou's tenure as PM was the fourth shortest of France's Fifth Republic

Un épisode avec @taravarma.bsky.social qui ressemble un peu à une partie de Taboo où on aurait pioché le mot "fascisme". (en vrai j'ai perdu tout de suite après)

C’est la rentrée et avec @alexjubelin.bsky.social nous reprenons nos échanges sur les développements stratégiques à Washington - et ils sont nombreux…! - dans ce dernier épisode de « Zone de turbulences » @lerubicon.bsky.social #LeCollimateur 🎧👇🏽

Lots in this interview with EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius. Says EU spending on US weapons down from 60% to 40% of EU procurement. “If we manage to incentivise member states also to spend more on European products, it means less for American products, slowly.” www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

I, like many others, sincerely struggle to discern any (economic) China strategy from the Trump administration. Some of his advisors are in the decoupling camp but US president Trump is, well, somewhere else. And mainly all over the place. 1/

An excellent update and deepening of prior statements and undertakings (Chequers déclarations, Lancaster House treaties)

Ravie d’être intervenue aujourd’hui dans les Matins de @franceculture.fr aux côtés de @fheisbourg.bsky.social et @astriddevillaines.bsky.social pour parler États-Unis, admin du Trump, OTAN et sécurité européenne : Trump, l'engrenage autoritaire ? www.radiofrance.fr/francecultur...

Now, that the NATO summit is over, Europeans must focus on unresolved key security issues I write for the @brookings.edu : www.brookings.edu/articles/bey...

The end of the “imperial republic” and the future of the transatlantic alliance. My “Raymond Aron lecture” @brookings.edu is now available online as a paper. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

On 10 June, I testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on East Asia and the Pacific at a hearing titled ‘Building Bridges, Countering Rivals: Strengthening U.S.–ASEAN Ties to Combat Chinese Influence’. @houseforeign.bsky.social

Deux jours après, les 3 interventions de @hfayet.bsky.social dans l'émission de C dans l'air post 1ère attaque israélienne restent une bible : opérations de décapitation commdt aéroterrestre et défenses sol-air, opérations destruction prod balistique, opérations anti-nuc mais "de surface" seulement.

Nouvel épisode de « Zone de turbulences » avec @alexjubelin.bsky.social où l’on évoque notamment le défilé militaire du jour. À écouter ci-dessous:

J'allais dire que comme d'hab, on enregistre un épisode deux jours à l'avance et on se fait prendre en traître par l'actualité au Moyen-Orient, mais enfin l'épisode avec @taravarma.bsky.social se termine sur la mention de sénateurs qui ont peur pour leur personne, et depuis il s'est aussi passé ça.

To add to my list. Mark Rutte says today in London: “Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years”. 2030 is certainly at the lower end of the estimate for Russian force reconstitution- and depends on what scenario. www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/nato...

« The end of the Imperial Republic and the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance », my @brookings.edu Raymond Aron lecture and the following conversation with @constelz.bsky.social Peter Rough and Mara Karlin is now available online. Special thanks to @taravarma.bsky.social youtu.be/74oUR7wsFFA

The Raymond Aron Lecture with @camillegrand.bsky.social starts at the @brookings.edu now: www.brookings.edu/events/the-e...

If Europe fails to rearm itself, "then it's game over", Mette Frederiksen said as she called for defence spending to be the "number one" priority. #EuropeNews

Macron says Asia & Europe joined in pursuit of strategic autonomy. “We live the same challenge: revisionist countries to that want to impose … spheres of coercion, countries that want to control areas on the fringe of Europe to the archipelagos in the South China Sea”

Macron: “France is a friend and an ally of the [US], and is a friend—and we do cooperate, and if sometimes we disagree and compete with China…We don’t want to be instructed on a daily basis what is allowed & how our life will changed based on the decision of a single person”

Listening to Macron at IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Criticises “double standards” & “equidistance between Russia & Ukraine” in LatAm, Africa, Asia. If Russia allowed to take territory what happens in Taiwan, Philippines? Also cites risk of “free pass” to Israel

Ursula von der Leyen proposes a "new form of Pax Europaea for the 21st century – one shaped and managed by Europe itself." "It is time for Europe to rise up once again," she says. "Our next great era – our next great unifying project – must be building an independent Europe."

Sortie demain !

NEW: Trump's recent actions and statements suggest he sees the world carved up among three powers — the US, Russia and China. It's a throwback to the 19th century, when empires established their "spheres of influence." Gift link to @nytimes.com story: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/u...

EU ministers approve the SAFE defence fund in Brussels this morning. Their communique mentions involving third countries and those with an SDP, including (specifically noted) the UK. Encouraging, and a big step forward from just months ago.

Join us @brookings.edu on June 4 for the 20th *Raymond Aron Lecture* where @camillegrand.bsky.social will be delivering a lecture on "The end of the Imperial Republic and the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance" Send us your questions beforehand & register here: www.brookings.edu/events/the-e...