Avg swing in specials to Congress is 17 pts left since 2024. But bc they've been so low-turnout, the data b4 last night suggested a 100% turnout (relative to the past midterm) special would have swung closer to 6-7 points. So TN-7 (13 pts) is updating priors about the share of swing that's turnout

elections aside, don't miss our important story in Bolts today:

lmao, anyway, he's ranting & raving in the comments discouraging ppl from voting. Head on a swivel, headed into the midterms.

Tonight, we did something everyone counted out. We proved to a nation that states like Tennessee are still worth fighting for. The margin was close, and that can only be attributed to the thousands of volunteers who showed out. This is just the beginning.

A VERY important point. Show up and vote in these numbers EVERY DAMN ELECTION.

Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in TN-07—a Trump +22 district—is a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms. Republicans had to spend MILLIONS just to barely hold onto this seat. My full statement on tonight’s election results:

Gerrymandered to double point GOP advantage Congressional District in Tennessee Special election in an OFF YEAR Behn and TN Dem activists brought it within 5-6 points That’s hard work and a WIN and a great indicator And Behn should absolutely run again in 2026 (if she hasn’t said so yet)

Excellent 👍🏼

Wow. "It gives me no pleasure to say what I’m about to say because I worked with Pete Hegseth for seven or eight years at Fox News. This is an act of a war crime .... There’s absolutely no legal basis for it.” - Newsmax's Judge Napolitano

The fact that there's been some actual election night suspense on how Tennessee ends is going to be enough to trigger those cold sweats among House Republicans. And Dems will likely get to point to another (admittedly way smaller!) flip, stay tuned for that.

longing once again for a world where more people are capable of grasping complex and inscrutable concepts like “it’s still really really good for Democrats if they *lose* by a much smaller margin than expected in Tennessee”

Election day is much redder than the EV in the rurals, Decatur fully reported is only a 6% swing, at 48% of 2024's turnout Davidson will need turnout to be a much higher % of 2024 for Behn to still have a shot

republicans who think you have a safe seat: no you don’t

Trump and his lackeys will try to spin it as the greatest GOP win of all time. But this is BAD bad for Republicans.

San Francisco just upzoned the Sunset, the Richmond, North Point, and a bunch of the Marina. I truly never thought I'd see the day. Huge congratulations to the local activists at @sfyimby.bsky.social who worked so hard to make this happen.

Honestly that we are even here is so remarkable and the GOP should be scared AF in 2026.

We have the early vote from 8 counties so far in #TN07, and the results are consistent with a big overperformance by Democrats... but as to how close the race will be, the major caveat is that the GOP tends to be stronger on Election Day votes.

Use this as a reference for tonight

Day 336 of my year of “every day, take a walk outside.” Insane sunset right now!

Claude the albino alligator is dead My story with @aidinvaziri.bsky.social Lots of cool facts from biologists I've interviewed. Claude knew his name & briefly had a pit-mate named "Bonnie." Most common question from guests: "Is he real?" RIP to an SF icon 🐊 😢 www.sfchronicle.com/entertainmen...

Freed from prison by Trump on his last day in office in 2021, a $200 million fraudster started a new Ponzi scheme within months. *A Bloomberg Big Take* FREE Gift Link: www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

This Black Friday, shoppers paid 7% more for electronics, 6% more for clothes, and a staggering 24% more for home appliances. Trump’s reckless tariff taxes are hitting consumers directly—forcing families to spend more.

There's still time to get out and vote y'all - if you in #TN07 haven't voted for Aftyn Behn yet, you need to show up with your photo ID and get to your polling place by 7pm. And stay in line if you're in line by 7pm local time.

Monstrous

The Trump admin has paused all immigration and naturalization processes for people from one of the 19 travel ban countries; including Cuba and Venezuela. Even people who fully passed the citizenship exam are having their cases put on hold, just inches from the finish line.

Good idea to keep an eye on all of this — and remember that TN-07 is deep, deep red. An actual win there would be absolutely incredible, but even a substantial narrowing of the GOP margin can matter a lot.

A 6-year-old boy is missing after ICE arrested him and his dad in NYC last week and shipped them off to separate facilities. www.thecity.nyc/2025/12/02/i... @thecity.nyc @gwynnefitz.bsky.social

THE STATS ARE IN To all the volunteers - THANK YOU!!!! Polls are open TODAY until 7 PM. You can knock on doors, phone bank, and still get involved if able. {LINK IN BIO} Let's get this done, y'all.

I know this is annoying but imagine if Joe Biden slept through a cabinet meeting

NEW: Pete Hegseth told an audience in a 2016 video that the military “won’t follow unlawful orders from their commander in chief,” and described the refusal of illegal commands as a part of the military’s ethos — a message he now condemns Democrats for spreading. www.cnn.com/2025/12/02/u...

The right's anti-empathy shtick has predictably slid into straight psychopathy. At worst these are low-level cocaine smugglers. More likely they're locals trying to make some extra income. Some are likely innocent. Meanwhile, Trump just pardoned a high-level distributor. And an ex-dealer leads HHS.

For all the conservative claims of liberals at elite schools indoctrinating students, the most salient examples of students from elite schools & their relationships w/ faculty are Hegseth & Vance. Hegseth was championed by two conservative Princeton faculty, Deneen & George, & Vance by Yale's Chua.

Called Newhouse. Told him to call for a new speaker, rally his fellow Republican reps to draw up and vote for impeachment (I know, I know) and removal of Hegseth, Miller and the Microwaved Apple criminal RAPIST president, and to get on board with the ACA stuff coz his constituents will die.

Donald Trump spent last night having some bizarre social media fever dream. It’s long past time for the president's mental fitness to be a sustained front-page story. www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/it-s-time-...

LONG RAMBLING EMOTIONAL THREAD: It's World AIDS Day. Since the Administration has decided to keep it quiet, I'd like to share my introduction to AIDS. I grew up in Seattle. My mom remarried a man who had a brother who was a King County Sheriff's Deputy. His name was Terry and he was gay. 1/x

Day 335 of my year of “every day, take a walk outside.” For sale in front of a neighborhood home:

I want to remind everyone who thinks otherwise, that AIDS is not a "gay" disease. It's an "everyone" disease. Viruses don't discriminate.

“In the early days it was a lonely battle. Studio heads whom Taylor had made lots of money for hung up on her … Some of her friends and advisers told her to stay away from HIV and AIDS because it could end her career.” www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/20...

My office and NYS HCR are suing Peak, a real estate developer, for illegally deregulating rent stabilized apartments in New York City. Peak deceived tenants and housing regulators to line their pockets and overcharge New Yorkers as affordable housing grew more scarce.

70 years ago, Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat on a bus in Montgomery. Today, we recognize her profound influence in the pursuit of civil rights for Black Americans. Her courageous act was a catalyst for change & her life of service continues to inspire me to stand up for justice & equality.

Moments ago:

giving Saudi nationals flight training you say? *US APPROVES POSSIBLE $500M AVIATION TRAINING TO SAUDI ARABIA

I don’t really have a lot to say about the OU thing except 1) it’s obviously about the trans instructor and 2) red state publics are all so, so vulnerable to this

Everybody needs to read this book! Rep. Jim Clyburn makes it “instructive” and explains how now parallels 1876 political moves… 1/3 apple.news/AY0o_mN5xSh-...

Everyone should read this paper, especially in light of the FDA’s new attacks on science and vaccines as reported today in the Washington Post.

This is the mansion Alan Jackson built. It sold for $28M. Van Epps hobnobs with the GOP elite in private while excluding the average Joe. He is the epitome of the billionaire's club that Aftyn will be fighting when she goes to Congress! @aftynbehn.bsky.social The choice couldn't be clearer!

THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!! We knocked 13,000 doors yesterday and learned that hasn’t happened since Harold Ford Jr.’s 2006 Senate campaign! We’ve got 48 hours left to get out the vote and MAKE HISTORY. Sign up to volunteer via the link in our BIO!

If this were your dad, you’d be texting the siblings: “We need to talk.”

The fact that 12% of federal judges are Black shows the corruption of DEI. The fact that 67% of Supreme Court Justices belong to a small legal cult called the Federalist Society shows the power of meritocracy.