My first-ever solo-authored paper is out today (open access!) in @journalrep.bsky.social! What drives Americans to switch their presidential vote based on race over the last 3 elections? I show that it's not general racial warmth, it's changing beliefs about discrimination. (🧵 1/3)

Brilliant analysis. “Moving from polarization to radicalization shifts the remedy from compromise, encouraging civility, and bridging divides to confronting antidemocratic actors, safeguarding targeted groups, and defending institutional integrity.” (I’d toss “populism” onto the trash pile too.)

A computer scientist recently told a group I was in that we shouldn't automate unless we can verify the accuracy of the output. You can't verify the accuracy of an "AI" summary unless you read the article (and likewise, you can't verify the accuracy of an "AI" lit review unless you review the lit).

I'm very happy to share that my first dissertation paper is now online in Party Politics (🔓)! I examine how political appointments (patronage) relate to coalition support in multiparty presidential systems, using roll-call data from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies (2003-2018). doi.org/10.1177/1354...

Billionaires, Corporate Landlords, and AI Companies Are Seen As Among the Worst Actors in U.S. Society. (@dataforprogress.org) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260703-top...

Apparently people think that with Claude Code you can write a methods/stats paper for the fun of it. Please do not do this. Claude Code can help with the mechanics of stats projects but *not* the larger purpose/design. It's still very difficult & time-consuming to come with a *useful* method.

NEW PUBLICATION!🚨 The 2023 Swiss federal elections were the first ever held under mandatory campaign finance disclosure rules. So how does an open-list PR influence campaign spending? Greater voters' ability to cast preference votes = more money spent onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

My new project: Government That Doesn’t Suck! launches July 6 www.youtube.com/channel/UCR1... I’m hosting it with Greg Jackson of History That Doesn’t Suck I’d be VERY grateful if you’d subscribe on YouTube b/c that initial buzz helps Also please send ideas for future episodes if you've got em

Why do arguments often change people’s beliefs without changing their attitudes? In a new APSR with @scottclifford.bsky.social and @patrickpliu.bsky.social, we point to belief relevance: arguments are more persuasive when they grapple with the idiosyncratic reasons people hold their political views.

Out now in Nature: Human Behavior: @obrian.bsky.social and I find that since about 2016, conservatives have become less healthy than liberals on a range of medical indicators. Since 2020, conservatives have died at higher rates, including of non-COVID-related causes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

This is a really interesting paper on partisan responses to Jan. 6, 2021. From Alison Craig (not on Bluesky?) and @albertsonb2.bsky.social.

For years I've tracked billionaire excess. Each year I show students a chart that blows their minds. This year I had to redraw it for a trillionaire: Elon Musk, $1.32T. Depressing that we're here. Silver lining: couldn't have happened to a less deserving person, proof that wealth ≠ merit.

Reminder for everyone going to EPSS: Apply for the ETA (www.gov.uk/eta/apply) or check if your ETA is still valid (www.gov.uk/check-eta) #EPSS #PoliticalScience #IDidNotKnow

1/ Happy to share that "Factorial Difference-in-Differences" (FDID), with Anqi Zhao and @pengding00 , is out in JASA - ACS. doi.org/10.1080/0162... It has been a truly thrilling experience working with Anqi and Peng.

🎉🎉🎉 The inaugural EPSS Conference in Belfast is just around the corner! Join us in Belfast from 18th to 20th of June, 2026 🎉🎉 🎉

Very excited that my paper with @colinrcase.bsky.social has been conditionally accepted at the AJPS!! Using our campaignview.org data, we produce measures for candidates' left-right positioning across six salient issue areas Big takeaways below ⬇️ Check it out early here 🔗: osf.io/preprints/so...

Americans say they want less inequality. Why don’t they support policies to reduce it? New paper: across 31 nationally representative survey waves (N=384,248) and a preregistered experiment (N=1,009), Americans favor PREdistributive over REdistributive policies 🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...

Check out my new @journalrep.bsky.social with incoming @umfordschool.bsky.social PhD student Alyson Otanez and UCSD’s Marisa Abrajano.

Politics by Formula: How Congressional Policymaking Creates Disparities is now out! I show how politics shapes and often distorts important federal programs, driving inequalities across states.

new WP (w/ @ntd.bsky.social): we use the case of Christian nationalism to make a broader point about "niche ideologies" in mass opinion research, and why you shouldn't scale them the same way you'd scale more general attitudes Link: osf.io/wbdut/files/...

🚨New Publication with Giacomo Di Pasquale & Emma Lofstedt for Political Research Quarterly "Bridges and Walls: How Rising Income #Inequality Drives Anti-Immigrant Politics and Republican Realignment" Available #OpenAccess #polisky doi.org/10.1177/1065...

Uploaded a new pre-print. This paper explores how legislative activity develops throughout legislative careers and whether senior legislators tend to start slacking off from legislative work. The paper focuses on Japanese prefectural assembly members. dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

wow — the preprint host, arxiv, is banning authors for a year if they submit papers with hallucinated citations 🤖

BLOG POST: why I think the measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems is wrong, and what to do about it www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/mixed_...

New paper in Nature. The more a government controls its domestic media, the more it dominates AI training data, the more pro-regime outputs we get from AI. By scraping the open web, LLMs are unwittingly laundering state-coordinated narratives into seemingly objective answers.

New open access paper at @polcommjournal.bsky.social with @jsievert.bsky.social: we find that messages oriented towards national politics polarize people's views and evaluations of candidates and that messages stressing local matters sometimes do the opposite. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Campaign Lab are hiring for 3 new roles - Great opportunity for anyone from an academic or applied research background who's excited about running RCTs and doing data science with progressive campaigns in the UK! campaignlab.uk/work-with-us/

Another problem to which the best solution is mandating multimember districts with PR

My latest WP, a restructured version of the piece in the quoted thread. Helpful for thinking clearly about social media RCTs and their limits, useful for teaching about spillover in causal inference SocArxiv: osf.io/preprints/so... Dropbox: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/zj43w... (1/5)

New paper out in Nature Human Behaviour. "Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources" with @seramirezruiz.bsky.social DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s415... Ungated: rdcu.be/fh0Ss

🚨 Coming soon: “The Political Economy of Public Bureaucracy” 🚨 My book is forthcoming in 2026 with @universitypress.cambridge.org. A preview of the cover art is below. Thanks to D. Carpenter, @sean-gailmard.bsky.social, and J. Gingrich for their endorsements! 🙏 More detailed info in the future. 😊

Yay, another paper by Berna and Erkan to dismantle wishful thinking about how clear-cut replicability is as a signal of good science.

👇That, and the opportunity to be part of a research community featuring rockstar colleagues inlcuding Drew, Asya Magazinnik, Lynn Kaack, Will Lowe, and more great people at @hertieschool.bsky.social!

NEW - The First Wave of Globalization and Electoral Populism in the United States - https://cup.org/4vVZx50 - Ze Han & Helen V. Milner #OpenAccess #Populism

🚨 Job alert! 🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion/IR (3 yrs) @unigreifswald.bsky.social Work on democratic resilience in times of crisis using cross-national survey data. flexible start (earliest possible) deadline: 31 May 2026 🔗 www.uni-greifswald.de/en/universit...

And executives are, of course, perfectly aware of this attribution mechanism among consumers. We found lots of statements explaining it in their earnings calls with analysts. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

I've got a paper "Bipartisan-cited science is rare, unevenly distributed, and disproportionately influential" published today at @pnas.org with @dashunwang.bsky.social. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

This might be the cleanest example yet of what @thomasnhale.bsky.social @greenprofgreen.bsky.social and I called the politics of climate-forcing asset holders vs. climate-vulnerable asset holders 🌎

We conclude RM designs serve as a better default than PO designs. Social science engages with small effects, is resource limited, & often concerns directional tests. RM designs are better in these settings, though cases remain where large-N PO designs are better (magnitude RQs, sensitive topics).

Thrilled to announce my paper with @dianamejordan.bsky.social & sky-less Trent Ollerenshaw is now published open-access at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. In a (very) large replication & extension, we show that design effects of repeated measure experiments are nonzero but typically small. Thread:

Gratitude to the @psjeditor.bsky.social team for featuring my article "Agendas and Instability in American Local Politics" with Peter Mortensen in their blog! psjblog.net/2026/04/15/a...

The School of Politics and International Relations is hiring an Assistant Professor (fixed-term, 3 years) in European Comparative Politics. Deadline: 19 May 2026 Job ad and details: my.corehr.com/pls/coreport... @ucdpolitics.bsky.social

🚨Job opportunity🚨 UNC Poli Sci is hiring a postdoc (one year renewable) to advance research on political behavior, with a special focus on free expression in higher education. Competitive salary and benefits. No teaching. Please encourage people to apply. Ad: timryan.web.unc.edu/wp-content/u...

I figured out a visiting position to spend January to June 2027 at the Universitat de Barcelona. Anyone have any tips on finding an apartment to rent?

The special issue of @cpsjournal.bsky.social “Back from the Brink: Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies”, co-edited by myself and Isabela Mares, was just published. The issue includes 8 articles, many of which set new research agendas. A🧵w/overview 1/10 journals.sagepub.com/toc/CPS/curr...

Missouri keeps electing Trump, Hawley & a GOP supermajority - yet voters passed Medicaid expansion, abortion rights, paid leave & marijuana legalization. All through direct democracy. New research on why. Find us at #MPSA2026, Thu April 23, 3:20 PM! #DirectDemocracy #Federalism #MissouriPolitics

📣 The programme for the European Political Science Society (EPSS) conference in Belfast is now out 👇

From our FirstView: Race, Responsiveness, and Representation in U.S. Lawmaking by G. AGUSTIN MARKARIAN, @jacobhacker.bsky.social , @maclockhart.bsky.social and ZOLTAN HAJNAL. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Do I know anyone who (successfully) submitted a registered report to #APSR/#JOP and is willing to share it with me? Would really appreciate seeing how people approached this new format!