The Roads to Congress 2024 is out! I've got a chapter about the only toss-up district in the South--the 1st district in #ncpol, (I also discuss redistricting in NC more generally), but there is lots of good stuff in the book even if you couldn't care less about the 1st Check it out! #polisky

I'm pleased to report that my forthcoming book is now available for pre-sale. What's more, if you become a paid subscriber to Tusk, I'll send you a complimentary copy of the book! More about the book below (1/4): smotus.substack.com/p/my-new-boo...

There's significant evidence from state legislative term limits that they do, in fact, empower both lobbyists and state executive branches. "Disagreeing" without offering any counter-evidence is just vibes.

Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address. First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it. 1/

Things I can't stop thinking about (not most impt but still), a running list: this is the pet project of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, also the NSA, Acting National Archivist, and Acting head of now-dead USAID, which would be useful in a post-Maduro scenario. 1/

A functioning Congress will have articles of impeachment drafted by the end of the day. Our Congress will just go to social media to basically say “We don’t like this, but what are you gonna do?”

🚨 We’re hiring an Assistant Professor in Political Science ⏰ Deadline 4th January 2026 🙋‍♀️ Any questions, please reach out 👇

As a resident of West Texas, I endorse this view.

It has been a bracing moment for American federalism, with both unprecedented efforts to extend executive control over state and local govts, novel forms of subnational resistance. Where is federalism going? Paul Nolette and I have edited a new issue of Publius on that question. Short thread:

Where prices have increased the most this year, per CPI data. www.ms.now/opinion/trum...

Santa has a weird sense of humor… Also, check out this wonderful edited volume. Now available for your Spring courses! www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

We lost my Dad to pancreatic cancer in May. I would not wish this disease upon anyone.

One advantage of being a data archive is that virtually everything we have of value can in fact be digitized. But so much of it is not. So we need researchers to let us know what they need.

Both parties are now preparing for “affordability” to play a major role in the midterm elections next year. How did it emerge so quickly? www.nytimes.com/2025/12/20/u...

There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution. In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789) 👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc.... 👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... 🧵1/6

the analogy I use with friends and family all the time is the jump from collegiate to professional sports. as soon as I explain it that way, it clicks in their brains what the academic job market is like.

London at Christmas time was a delight. Until next time!

Am I the only one bothered by the chart not adding up to 100 when there’s no space for don’t know?

Discharge rule continues campaign for 2025 MVP award🏆! Coalition to extend ACA support hits 218 signatures, matching record 4 "entered" discharge petitions set 90 years ago (1937-8). Speakers today may have peak agenda power, but that's no match for angry 218 (and an organized minority).

we have 5 positions open at @goetheuni.bsky.social in Frankfurt - a 4,5 year postdoc in my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage - 2 postdoc & 2 PhD positions, 4 years, in a research group on Reconfiguration & Internalization of Social Structure www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794784/FB0...

🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion (2 years) We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald. ✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group

New post-doc position working with me in a new lab at @snfagora.bsky.social ! It's one year appointment, renewable for up to 5 years. The position includes data analysis and independent research, mentorship of lab members, and participation in SNF Agora Institute life. apply.interfolio.com/178796

Now available in Roper iPoll!

The Old Vic last night. Royal Opera House today.

How many flat whites can I drink in five days🤔

How your email finds me during the end of the semester

Yule ≠ Christmas Yule is one of the oldest winter solstice festivals, with origins among the ancient Norse thousands of years ago. Although today it’s heavily associated with, and even confused with, Christmas, the celebration existed long before Christianity. 🧵⬇️

Great example of congressional over speech by Rep. Magaziner papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

In a multiparty system, Garamond would have some representation.

BREAKING: Democrats have *flipped* a seat in Georgia's state House tonight. Democrat Eric Gisler has won the seat, which was previously held by a Republican who resigned this fall. This is a red territory: Trump won the district by 13% in 2024.

Paper out today in @nathumbehav.nature.com: 1) those groups (women, African Americans, lower SES, rural) that are underrepresented in science have been less trusting of science. 2) If you improve representation in science, you improve trust among those groups. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

‼️ New working paper ‼️ We find bipartisan appeals credibly signal policymaking intentions—on an issue-by-issue basis We show how and why bipartisan lawmaking persists amid congressional conflict: progress often comes through issue-specific pathways rather than broad consensus between Ds and Rs 🧵👇

This is wild, but not surprising

Also check out my 2014 review of empirical work on how people think about American identity: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

Republicans continue to offer a more positive rating of the Republican-led Congress than Democrats do, but the party gap is much narrower than it was earlier this year, as Republicans’ approval has sunk to 23%. (Megan Brenan, Gallup) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251130-offer

Anyone have coffee or food recommendations for London? Near West End area, but we will be venturing around the city.

Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:

🚨Jobs!🚨 3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you! Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

🚨Job News: Postdoc positions in LSE Government Department 🚨 Apply to work with the brilliant and wonderful Carl Muller-Crepon @carlmc.bsky.social on his BORDERS ERC project at LSE @lsegovernment.bsky.social jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

I am once again thankful my mother no longer works for the university. Cutting budgets in all the wrong places.

Universities have spent $228 million on coach buyouts (so far) this season. www.si.com/college-foot...

As we wrap up another semester, my public opinion students have put together a great survey. If you have 5 minutes to spare, my students and I would thrilled if you'd take it: virginia.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

Next year, I'm teaching graduate "scope & methods." I want to mix "what is political science," "how to write a paper", "research design for causal inference", and "how to increase the credibility and public value of political science." Any reading recs for 1st semester grad students?

I keep getting this targeted ad and cannot decide if it is friendly or threatening

Green Lantern Theory strikes again

Well that’s gonna solve the university’s budget challenges! If only we invested like this in our university’s educational missions.

Come 2029, the leaders of Northwestern and Columbia will be at the forefront of a PR speaking circuit to talk up how ethical and brave their actions were, and they’ll be invited by the other groups going by the same PR—round and round.

We can't convince universities to stop hiring Gordon Gee, so I don't know how we push for there to be any consequences for betraying the country for a few research grants. But it feels like figuring that out will be necessary.

🚨 Please send in your application by 10 December to be considered for this ESRC studentship in collaboration with @campaign-lab.bsky.social. Both home and international students are eligible for funding. Some advice on how to apply below 👇

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