Yes, I'm cautiously optimistic here. The two-thirds majority is basically absolute power in the Hungarian system; if Magyar is capable of maintaining party unity, Tisza has the capability to undo Orbánism and bring back democracy. But it still won't be easy. bsky.app/profile/saur...

Thus, today's election is not really the end of an authoritarian regime. Rather, it is the first step in a much longer unwinding process. It is massive and absolutely necessary first step — one that anyone who believes in democracy should celebrate. But it's more a beginning than an end.

Orbán's best bet for regime survival — for returning to power — wasn't staging a doomed January 6-style putsch in the face of overwhelming defeat. It was retreating, and doing everything he can to preserve regime elements that would allow for a return to competitive authoritarianism in the future.

The Orbánist is deeply entrenched across the Hungarian government: courts, bureaucracy, regulators, tax agencies, even cultural organizations were all part of it. If Magyar does not use his power to enact sweeping constitution changes, much of that system could survive.

This is where Orbán found himself. That he chose to concede defeat does not annul the fact that he had built an authoritarian regime of a particular kind; it just means he realized he no lacked good options for staying. Moreover, the Fidesz regime could still survive Magyar's victory.

That's what just happened in Hungary. Under Orbán, Hungary became arguably the poorest country and indisputably the most corrupt in Europe. Birthrates were low, and outmigration enormous. More and more Hungarians felt like they had no future under Fidesz.

But every competitive authoritarian regime, even the most effective one, has a fail case: that their characteristic corruption, poor governance, and autocratic overreach overwhelms their ability to control information, breeding a massive public backlash.

Hungary under Orbán was one of the most effective such regimes in the world. Fidesz developed an incredibly sophisticated system for marginalizing the opposition, including controlling 80-90 percent of media. This @kimlanelaw.bsky.social piece has details. www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how...

A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why.

Hungarians deserve every congratulations for giving Peter Magyar a bigger margin than Orban has ever gotten in all of his rigged elections - and this within the system that Orban rigged. Magyar now has a constitutional majority to undo Orban's constitutional prison and govern as a democratic leader.

Orban's system was rigged to give plurality winners with widespread support in the countryside super-majorities in the parliament - so Peter Magyar generated widespread support in the countryside and has been rewarded with 69% of the parliamentary seats. Now he can undo Orban's constitution!

Magyar has called on the national president to resign so that the new parliament can elected a new president. (Orban amended the law on the presidency in December to make it impossible for the parliament to impeach the president.) If Sulyok stays, he can act as roadblock for the new govt.

Since we’re all making fun of Rod Dreher, I think about this at least once a week

Thanks for writing about this. More ppl need to know. Free speech & intellectual freedom--to Right Wingers--means they get to say what they want to--& you also get to say what they want you to.

Here's an excerpt -- check out the whole column and tell me what you think

Everyone please welcome CBS News Immigration Analyst Viktor Orban.

This is an actual line from an actual article in a nominal newspaper. "Unlike Springsteen, a New Jersey native who makes every concert these days feel like a tedious political rally, the percussionist said he takes a different approach with his current group, The Wonderful Winos."

Orbánism is 1) capturing & making partisan the judiciary, election regulators, central bank, administrative state, and 2) pressuring civil society (media, universities, firms) into acquiescence Trumpism has those things plus secret police & immigration enforcement for authoritarianism

My favorite genre of essay is "righteously biting the hand that feeds you," nothing else even comes close. Great stuff in here.

🔥

my grad school alma mater covering itself in shame

make tenure count.

Out of 23,000 undergrads, only 19 students signed up for the lavishly funded conservative academic center forced onto University of Iowa by Republican politicians. Turning Points has an $85 million budget and there is no equivalent on the center-left/left. And yet, students still aren't buying it.

Having Chris Rufo be the inaugural speaker for a Center of Intellectual Freedom is like having John Roberts be the inaugural speaker for your Center for Voting Rights

Bannon referred to Orban as "Trump before Trump." Well, Orban is gone. MAGA is next.

We’ll need this in the US too. Prosecute every Trump regime official who gave illegal orders or followed them, including military & DHS criminals. Prosecute everyone involved in every corrupt swindle & bribe.

JD Vance went to Hungary to stump for a guy who thinks Vance's own marriage is wrong. I hope he's feeling humiliated today. But I doubt it. www.theguardian.com/world/2022/j...

There are other ways to hold people accountable. Retroactive civil liability. State criminal charges. Bar licenses. Extradition to The Hague.

Again, a lot of people who should’ve known better threw their full-throated support behind efforts targeting these fields, scholars, and the theories they’ve produced.

Yes. This is a scheme. College students want to take these classes, but they are explicitly told not to major in the fields - in part by the very schools that won't hire & pay people with expertise in them.

No Fascism is the Actual Popularism

Or following Iran-Contra. Or after GWB’s presidency. Or after Trump I. Or after January 6. We simply cannot do that again.

A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor. https://cnn.it/47Vxjx2

this should be the opposition rallying cry in every country where fascists have been ascendant

We didn't clear house following Reconstruction or following the Civil Rights Movement and we absolutely have to do it next time.

Interesting that he does not distinguish among judges, media heads, and administrative officials

ed blum is straight up just trying to eliminate educational opportunities for black kids under the guise of “equality.”

Orban achieved a level of authoritarian consolidation unthinkable here and they still successfully got rid of him. Never let the doomers have the final say.

Orban's inability to prevent last year's Pride protests—attended by 300k despite being banned—was a turning point in his authoritarian grip of the country. Queer people are always leading the fight against authoritarianism, as we are often its first targets. Never cower to fear.

I too had a dry week this week scheduled. But democracy is worth toasting. Congratulations, democracy and people of Hungary. (the wine comes out of the lion's mouth aerated)

0 for 2

initially i thought it extremely inappropriate for jd vance to travel to another country and try to meddle in their elections and now i think he should go stump on behalf of every right wing reactionary party in europe, give him a special budget for it, i don't care, get him on the local news

In a big loss for JD Vance and eugenicists everywhere, Viktor Orban is OUT. 🥂 It seems that his fanboy Vance’s visit and endorsement weren’t enough. Or, did it hurt him? Either way, fantastic news for Hungary and democracy. Thoughts and prayers for Putin and Vance’s boss, too.

Putin's axis-of-evil has one less member.

Orbán turns out to be more of a democrat than the U.S. president and a nontrivial number of GOP candidates.

historic rejection of JD Vance

Viktor Orban to be new president of Harvard University @nytpitchbot.bsky.social

Orban is not conceding because he's honourable. He's conceding because his defeat is so comprehensive even he can't pretend he won.

Students are actually pretty good at recognizing incompetence and propaganda.

It's not just that Orbán losing inspires hope in other competitive-autocratic countries ruled by right-wing nationalist authoritarians. It's that his loss materially changes things in those other countries, because he's been operating as a headquarters and funding source...