Trump's war has wiped out an entire year and a half of wage growth

New working paper on the California Fast-Food minimum wage (will come out as NBER WP soon but posting now). Big increase in wages. Big drop in separations. Little change in jobs. (Bonus: sheds light on QWI vs QCEW measurement of jobs.)

Price effects of the Iran conflict already showing up in March data. For the month, prices up a lot and real earnings are down. And it almost surely gets worse from here. 1

How much does a modest but adequate lifestyle cost in your area? New Family Budget Calculator estimates from @epi.org

Because it’s a smash and grab.

FUN FACT FRIDAY: SOCIAL SECURITY EDITION 📣 Did you know: In 2025, millionaires (and billionaires, and trillionaires) pay the same for Social Security as someone earning $176,100? 😲 Say it ain't so @moniquemorrissey.bsky.social 1/

Hey folks, I've got a new report out about how declining enrollment (often driven by intentional policies) is making life harder across North Carolina's schools. Please give it a read and let me know what you think: #ncpol #EduSky

USDA quietly said Friday it will, after a century, end the Farm Labor Survey (FLS), the only wage survey of ag employers. FLS is a critical input to setting local minimum wages for H-2A visa workers to try to avoid harm to U.S. workers' wages. #LaborDay #EconSky www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Not...

How an administration that is actively trying to undermine unions and harm workers every way they possibly can chooses to celebrate Labor Day: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/u...

an interesting statistical deep dive: jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...

When Trump and friends started pushing no tax on tips, this is what they wanted to achieve: keystonenewsroom.com/2025/08/12/p...

As a 20+ year resident of DC, I can assert without reservation that the city is a safe and generally wonderful place to live...except for the lack of full constitutional rights.

Ahead of the job numbers coming out next month, folks to follow for RELIABLE AND ACCURATE INFORMATION include: @elisegould.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social Jessica Fulton (who isn't on here, but someone to follow) @epi.org if you want a breakdown by race and gender

Remember how the tariffs were supposed to help manufacturers?

Probably unreasonable to expect the Post editorial board to stay on top of economic research but there are three studies of California's fast food minimum wage (not just the one they preferred to highlight) The average estimate across studies suggests the policy had essentially no employment effect

This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy. When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises. I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.

The funding increase for arrests, detentions, deportations will cause widespread harm to the labor market and destroy millions of jobs held by immigrant and US-born workers www.epi.org/blog/the-rep...

Now that Congress has passed the Republican spending bill, "[if] Trump succeeds in carrying out his deportation goals...5.9 million workers will lose their jobs over the next 4 years"--3.3 million immigrants and 2.6 million US-born workers. [email protected] @epi.org www.epi.org/blog/the-rep...

As Congress debates no tax on tips, important to recognize just how unserious an effort to help working people it is. Raising the federal minimum wage would deliver nearly 18x as much income to workers. www.epi.org/blog/increas...

NEW analysis by the Congressional Budget Office shows the "One Big Beautiful Bill" 1.) Makes the bottom 30% worse off 2.) Finances tax cuts that make the top 10% in particular better off. This is not shared sacrifice--it's a fiscal transfer from the bottom to the top www.cbo.gov/system/files...

As Congress debates no tax on tips, important to recognize just how unserious an effort to help working people it is. Raising the federal minimum wage would deliver nearly 18x as much income to workers. www.epi.org/blog/increas...

The craziest thing about this fight between Trump and Elon Musk is that Republicans are trying to take away health care from 16 million people to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.

‘No tax on tips’ could backfire amid growing tip fatigue www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

In DC an average of $44k will go to the top 1% (those w/inc over ~$1.3m) while the bottom 20% (inc under $26k) get $90 (until the tax cuts for lower inc folks expire). Paid for in part by the biggest ever cuts to health coverage and food assistance. Some serious reverse Robin Hood 💩.

There's a lotta concern about the short run (ie recession or not) implications of Trump's agenda. Dani is right to point to the long run as far far more consequential.

Americans favor labor unions over big business now more than ever, analysis of new data @epi.org from me & Adam Reich of Columbia Labor Lab. In data back 60 years, Americans' sentiments are both warmer toward unions & cooler towards big business than ever before. www.epi.org/blog/america...

🧵 (1/4) There are four fundamental flaws of the House tax bill. #1 It is fiscally irresponsible; all reputable sources agree. Bond markets & downgrades show US financial fragility; this is a bad time to take on trillions in additional debt toward no useful policy rationale.

This reported SALT deal and accelerated Medicaid cuts would make the bill even more effective at transferring resources from low-income to high-income households.

Official CBO analysis confirms the obvious: House Republican tax and budget bill isn't shared sacrifice. It makes poor people poorer and rich people richer. It does this by cutting health care & nutrition to help finance tax cuts skewed to the wealthy. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Shame on Gov. Polis for vetoing legislation to restore collective bargaining rights CO workers have been denied for 80 years under arcane anti-union state law.

New @centeronbudget.bsky.social analysis of the draft GOP tax plan released yesterday: Unsurprisingly, it provides enormous tax cuts for the wealthy—including an average annual $65k cut for the top 1%—while doing little for low- and moderate-income families in 2027 (and even less by 2029).

Southern and Midwestern districts are the most vulnerable to Social Security cuts and disruptions www.epi.org/blog/souther...

It sure would be great if the party that purports to prioritize individual liberty would let the residents of the District of Columbia decide how they want to spend their own money. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/u...

Trying to document all the ways that the Trump administration has harmed working people is hard. But @epi.org tried. See here: www.epi.org/publication/...

Check out the distribution by income--it's egregious and remember that this will be compounded by plans for cuts to health care, food assistance, education, and every other good thing, to make way for tax cuts for the wealthy.

Important piece from my @epi.org colleagues @jensherer.bsky.social and Daniel Costa: The unlawful abduction and imprisonment of Kilmar Abrego Garcia puts all workers in peril www.epi.org/blog/the-unl...

Important piece from my @epi.org colleagues @jensherer.bsky.social and Daniel Costa: The unlawful abduction and imprisonment of Kilmar Abrego Garcia puts all workers in peril www.epi.org/blog/the-unl...

Missouri Republicans are pushing a radical, anti-worker tax plan that fully exempts all capital gains from taxes ⚠️ The top 1% would get 320x the tax cut of a middle-class taxpayer, according to @itep.org Exempting capital gains is unambiguously bad for working people www.epi.org/blog/missour...

Missouri Republican state lawmakers are pushing a radical anti-worker tax plan www.epi.org/blog/missour... h/t @itep.org for analysis of the bill.

"People look back on the golden age of American manufacturing with fondness because it provided the elusive 'good jobs at good wages.' To the extent that was actually true, it was thanks to an interlocking series of policies that MAGA Republicans happen to hate." -- @snipy.bsky.social

Missouri Republican state lawmakers are pushing a radical anti-worker tax plan www.epi.org/blog/missour... h/t @itep.org for analysis of the bill.

The topline numbers in the latest #NumbersDay report on Job Openings and Labor Turnover for February showed little changed in February, but we can see the fingerprints of recent policy decisions on the federal workforce. The data show 18,000 laid off federal workers in February.

A giant waste of time, money, talent, and people's goodwill. Aside from being despicably cruel, it's hard to imagine a grosser (deliberate!) abuse of public resources. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/u...

New CPS estimates from EPI show 15.3% real wage growth for the bottom decile from 2019-2024 Doesn't mean workers should be happy after 50 years of bullshit. Doesn't mean inequality isn't killing us. It does mean higher inflation-adjusted wages for the working poor, which used to matter for voting.

300 kids in Kansas City just lost their preschool thanks to Trump. The Headstart program provided preschool education, nutrition and health services for children from low-income families, as well as children with diagnosed disabilities. fox4kc.com/news/ymca-en...

"A terrified young student, snatched off the street by a masked police force taken thousands of miles across the country without anyone knowing. It is as flatly authoritarian as anything we have ever seen in this country," says @chrislhayes.bsky.social on Tufts student Rumeysa Ozturk's detention.

Check out the @minnesotareformer.com's coverage of our research into child labor in Minnesota, including a great round-up of how conservative-led states are putting kids in harm's way. minnesotareformer.com/2025/03/26/r...

Tip Exemptions Have No Place in State Income Tax @iteptweets itep.org/tip-exemptio...