Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k. #EconSky

To me, today's jobs report is what entering a recession looks like. Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look like today - rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.

I'm sure somebody has pointed this out already, but, the Trump administration's excitement about 1.7% ytd growth in real average hourly earnings for prod/non-supervisory workers is...weird? Kind of 'meh' relative to what they inherited? For context, last bar on right is what they're so excited about

Like many, I’m not looking forward to the Trump parade this Saturday. It is dumb on so many levels. I’ve been a bit surprised, though, at how many people seem very upset about its cost – which estimates seem to put as high as $45 million. 1 www.npr.org/2025/06/12/g...

Stock prices can be a noisy signal - some declines aren't bad and some increases reflect policy choices that hurt normal people. But past few weeks' declines are unambiguously bad - they are correct predictions that the US economy will be poorer because of Trump policies. www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...

Just noting that Congress can stop the market carnage anytime they want to by rolling back these tariffs. 100% in their power. They're watching a house ablaze with a firehose sitting at their feet and just refusing to use it. GOP leadership, not the Fed, should be having emergency meetings today.

The recent market implosion is mostly about the crazy approach to tariffs the admin is taking, but this crazy approach also likely opened eyes to just how much pain is implied in all sorts of other Trump/GOP policies. For example, the Senate budget resolution is incredibly irresponsible. 1

Liz Truss is very excited to hand off the "Dumbest Macro Policymaker in the World" sash to Donald Trump.

This take is wearing ok. The stock market is a noisy signal and doesn't generally correlate tightly at all with broad-based economic security...but in recent weeks its moves are highly informative. 1 www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...

Based on the replies l, it looks like there a lot of fed workers on @bsky.app I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now Thanks for your service to our country

Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show those initial federal UI claims from the last few weeks have translated into insured continuing claims, up by nearly 50% from this time last year. #EconSky

Does "running the govt more like a business" at least mean that the dummies who cost it $500 billion (with a 'b') get fired? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

This continues to be the biggest story in the country: DOGE has already squandered half a trillion dollars in 6 weeks. Not billion. half a trillion, $500 billion talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/irs-p...

This is really good and 100% right. 1 cepr.net/publications...

Briefing Book - one of my favorite SubStacks - graciously allowed us to guest post about our new data tool and what it tells us about how well the US labor market and economic policy have been generating broadly-shared prosperity in recent decades. 1 www.briefingbook.info/p/deliberate...

Seems like the self-regarding "facts don't care about your feelings" capitalists looking for hard numbers on efficiency shouldn't be actively destroying data? 1 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

Was just talking to a friend earlier today who would file ethics paperwork so she could accept a glass of wine at a health policy happy hour hosted at a think tank

The dismantling of NCES is insane and will critically hobble progress in improving education - this agency is so important it existed more than 100 years before the creation of Department of Education.

These small business owners seem to realize that they won't be able to just call up the White House and make some rhetorical commitment to investing in America to get some tailored help.

Illegal orders trying to hide evidence of other illegal orders. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...

Every time I hear something this I'll just remind people that the Trump admin inherited a very strong economy. The path of not doing dumb things and riding a wave of unearned credit was totally open to them. www.epi.org/blog/preside...

In the year before the Trump administration took over, inflation-adjusted stock prices rose just under 30%. www.epi.org/blog/preside...

These are great. On the alcohol sales trendline, when i looked at that there was no trend from 2007-2014 and then it started rising. If you calculated the "pre-pandemic trend" as 2007-2019 we'd still be far above the trendline on alcohol spending today. 1

This is a really important point. Just a giant strikeout for self-proclaimed fraudbusters. It's mostly driven by happily low levels of fraud (not zero - but low) in federal spending, but also driven by DOGE bringing a pathetically low level of basic knowledge of the public sector to their job?

Why is President Trump attacking the Postal Service? Your questions answered. www.epi.org/publication/...

It would have been trivially easy for the Trump admin to do lots of the awful things they want to do w/o wrecking the macroeconomy - they just needed to avoid doing the dumbest things possible. The incompetence is jaw-dropping. 1 bsky.app/profile/josh...

Seems about right? www.wired.com/story/doge-i...

This idea is literally the most-wasteful possible use of any fiscal resource. It is crazy-making to have it floated in the same weeks that useful, hard-working federal employees are being laid-off under the guise of "efficiency".

The federal government is the largest employer of veterans in the US Trump’s federal workforce cuts will jeopardize the careers of nearly 900,000 veterans and veteran or military spouses New from me @epi.org

This piece is worth reading. I've learned a lot from Jason over the years but agree with Gene that his critiques of the Biden admin's approach to macro policy have been unconvincing. democracyjournal.org/arguments/tr...

A key thing to think about when interpreting jobs numbers is the timing of Trump policies. Next month, we are sure to see the impact of federal layoffs in the economy, but there are other, slower moving but certainly harmful policy trajectories to watch out for. 1/

The Trump admin canceled contracts with Maine's CDC supporting "enumeration at birth" -- the way 99% of American babies get their Social Security Numbers. Now Maine parents have to visit field offices in-person to get their newborn SSNs Why? No reason given. www.huffpost.com/entry/maine-...

Trump inherited an economy that was firing on all cylinders. Now, just weeks into his tenure, the outlook is far gloomier -- and the sudden deterioration is due almost entirely to his policies and the uncertainty they have created. @colbylsmith.bsky.social #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/b...

We're off to the races this morning folks: Payroll up by 151,000, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 %-- I trust BLS (they're professionals) AND this reference period is before many of the government layoffs started happening

You might expect a negative #NumbersDay in this jobs report because of reported layoffs in and out of the government, but, it hasn't shown up in the data yet. Unfortunately, this is the calm before the storm as trouble is clearly brewing and the pain will be felt across the economy in coming months.

The economy added 151,000 jobs in Feb—roughly in line with the prior 12 months average increase of 168,000. The household data were softer, with unemployment ticking up to 4.1% and the prime-age EPOP decreasing by two tenths. But overall, a solid report. 1/

CBO (valuably) confirms basic arithmetic here - no way that large Medicaid cuts aren't necessary under House budget resolution. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

NEW: The Social Security Administration is cutting staff. Field offices will be affected. The same thing happened in the 80s, when 21% of field office jobs were cut. And a new research paper finds that it resulted in 80,000 eligible Americans not getting earned benefits. prospect.org/health/2025-...

Millionth reminder of the fundamentally strong economy that was inherited by the current administration. They were on an easy glide path to maintaining this for a long time if they had resisted radically stupid measures.

Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show the first signs of the federal worker layoffs. Federal Unemployment Insurance claims ticked up for the week ending February 22, 2.5 times higher than the prior week. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.

Wondering if this is the free speech revolution the twitter-files type people were hoping for? www.propublica.org/article/ted-...

This might be the paper I'm most proud of; the Monthly Labor Review is my favorite journal. We use monthly, longitudinal data from the SIPP and use employment history to distinguish high quality and low quality nonemployee (aka alternative, flexible, contract) work. www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/202...

Disappearing data: Pre-Trump, there were 308,000 datasets available on Data.gov. It’s since dipped to 304,621 as of Feb. 21. That’s 3,379 datasets removed — but what was on those pages? thehill.com/homenews/adm...

This person has no idea how many people have died, or will die, as a result of shattering our entire global infrastructure for providing lifesaving assistance. He did no analysis of those impacts before the reckless and illegal obliteration of USAID. These statements are made-up assertions.

I thought this blog was really smart about the societal conditions that give us Elon Musk. drafts.interfluidity.com/2025/02/25/a...

Just reminding people that this admin inherited a fundamentally strong economy. The speed with which they're blowing it up is impressive. www.epi.org/blog/preside...

Objectively pro-fraud www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/c...

From @hshierholz.bsky.social @epi.org: "the Trump-Vance administration agenda will be profoundly destructive to the incomes and economic security for both the most vulnerable families and the broad middle class" www.epi.org/publication/...

I guess the "stock market veto" on dumb Trump administration ideas was also not supposed to be taken literally.

"I don't understand technology, but, I hear AI is magic and think Elon Musk is a magician and we should trust the magician to use computers to find waste" is a bizarrely common rational for what DOGE is doing. Can't decide what ratio of childish to cynical to assign to it.