This is perhaps the most impressive #medical study I have seen in years: www.nature.com/articles/s41... It will save a lot of lives.

A paper based on my master's thesis is out this morning in PDR! It offers a new way of theorising and estimating "demographic memory". In a week of heatwaves and political instability in the UK, these toy examples work as a nice graphical abstract 🌡️ onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

While it does not implement TMLE, you could in principle try causatr: github.com/etverse/caus.... It would be a nice “validation” for me 😅

Technically, they’re Remains now.

#causalsky #biostatsky bat signal: Can anyone point me to TMLE code for a controlled direct effect adjusting for post-exposure confounders? (I've used medoutcon in other work for the IDE, but here I need a CDE 🙏) @nimahejazi.org @idiaz.bsky.social @kararudolph.bsky.social @aschuler.bsky.social

Exclusive: The National Science Foundation is trimming this year’s budgets for hundreds of its traditional basic science programs by roughly 20% to 30%, even though its overall budget is down just 3%. https://scim.ag/4xY2KCm

Had a great first time participating in the Evolutionary Demography Society conference last week in Fort Collins, followed by a much needed weekend hiking trip to the Snowy Range Mountains in Wyoming 🏔️🐾

After the tarp went up to try and stop the “Berlin Wall” moment, Cliff Owen of the AP got the iconic 📸 shot. 🇺🇸

If anyone is interested in this but missed the talk, I'm afraid it wasn't recorded on this occasion, but the slides are now available on our webpage: ciig-seminar.github.io And Vanessa is more than happy to answer questions by email!

Now that's what I call a spicy opeing: Understanding mechanisms is not a research question.

Was really excited that my recent paper got its first (non letter-to-editor) citation! But, then I realized it's apparently an AI hallucination :/

Very grateful to have secured a postdoc offer in this market. Excited to share more soon and to start chipping away at submitting a backlog of papers that have overstayed their welcome in my Dropbox drafts folder and, more pragmatically, there's nothing like a hard deadline to whip me into shape :)

Meanwhile, more on the shitweaselry within the NSF. For unexplained reasons they've put all grants to Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and Duke on hold.

I wrote for @lareviewofbooks.bsky.social about Kathryn Paige Harden's new book, an attempt to popularize the eugenics of criminality. I read it as a gambit to build liberal support for the project animating far right politics today, inspired by Replacement theory.

Just saw the news after writing a self-promotional post about my research on fetal exposure to political violence. (tired of being reminded how ubiquitous it is 😵‍💫) Long story short: political violence in the womb can leave long term marks on cardiovascular health and molecular aging

Really excited to be speaking on my dissertation research on selection vs. scarring in utero, leveraging the enrollment timing of the Cebu, Philippines longitudinal birth cohort study relative to the 1982–83 El Niño drought and the August 1983 assassination of opposition leader Ninoy Aquino. (1/2)

My T32 postdoc applications are in limbo due to funding delays. I don’t know if I’m defending in 3-4 months (to start a postdoc) or staying in grad school another year. I have to sign a lease soon. It's a mess, but I'm grateful to have one more year of funding in such a turbulent time.

If only a dozen Republicans in Congress found the will, they could impeach and remove him today.

I've spent the past two hours digging around in online newspaper and governmental archives to try to clear something up for my dissertation and it has paid off beautifully. A very big small win 🥲

I’ve been dreading opening analysis files for part of my thesis that does geocoding in Docker and fits a model in Stan. I hand-coded (funny to have to say that now) it years ago, but before I was trained in reproducible coding. Claude helped me get it tight and reproducible in a few hours 🥲

I saw five 22 Clark buses in a convoy last night. My friend had a theory this route is cursed. She said it always comes in twos. I don’t know what five means but it cannot be a good sign.

I've been helping my wife fight her insurance company for 2 years and it's been the most demoralizing but also radicalizing thing that could have happened while training as an anthropologist & epidemiologist.

PAA loves first timer attendees! Yay @elijahjwatson.bsky.social - we are having a special mixer for early career PAA folk from 4:30-6pm on Weds May 6 before the traditional Welcome Mixer at 6pm and we'd love to have you join us @popassocamerica.bsky.social

Excited for my first PAA! I'm looking forward to sharing my dissertation work on how the timing of prenatal exposure to the 1983 political–economic crisis in the Philippines—following the assassination of opposition leader Ninoy Aquino—shaped outcomes from birth to epigenetic aging in midlife.

Getting shown up in the arena of elite impunity by *the British monarchy* is an incredible “America at 250!” achievement

This is an Average Treatment Effect on the Treated appreciation post. I love ATTs. Go ATTs.

New blog post about the age-period-cohort identification problem! In which, for the first time ever, I ask "What's the mechanism?" and also suggest that sometimes you may actually *not* be interested in causal inference. www.the100.ci/2026/02/13/o...

A week in the life: Monday: postdoc interview, rejected same day (at least they were fast 🙂) Tuesday: food poisoning, no sleep Wednesday: slept all day Thursday: reviewed a manuscript draft for co-author submission, wrote a dissertation paragraph, ate a lot of soup and applesauce

Context: this speech is from SIR THOMAS MORE, a history written, as near as scholars can tell, in the early 1600s by 6 or 7 people including Dekker, Heywood, Chettle, Shakespeare, and Munday. It was never performed, because Jacobean England was a police state and it was banned by the censor.

Sir Ian McKellen performing a monologue from Shakespeare’s Sir Thomas More on the Stephen Colbert show. Never have I heard this monologue performed with such a keen sense of prescience. Nor have I ever been in this exact historical moment.TY Sir Ian, for reaching us once again. #Pinks #ProudBlue

Never mind the jobs you had, tell me five classes you took in college: 1. War, Medicine, and the Military 2. Field Geology of Eastern California (included a week of field research!) 3. Medicine, Literature, and Culture 4. History of South Africa 5. Global Health Policy

The Open Visualization Academy (OVA) IS LIVE! openvisualizationacademy.org Thread follows #dataViz #infographics #dataJournalism #dataVisualization

If you see this, don't participate. It's a rigged study by Lisa Littman and unethical researcher J. Michael Bailey meant to undermine access to care. Spread the word.

If you missed my talk on Tuesday, you can now watch the video!👇🏼

I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good. Stay free

Downfall Bovino Edition. You're welcome.

ICE AGENT: “I love my job. I can’t believe they pay me to do this. I’d do it for free. I only went to high school and I make $200,000.”

Statement from the American Nurses Association about the death of Alex Pretti in Minnesota. www.nursingworld.org/news/news-re...

If you're living somewhere outside the USA, one thing you can do is pressure your leaders to boycott World Cup and Olympic events here.

It's time to abolish Trump’s ICE.

they're executing moms and nurses in the street. they're using preschoolers as bait. they're stealing people's dads and grandmas and children. they're tear gassing babies. they're staking out schools. there is no remedy but abolition. any proposal that doesn't start there is an act of violence.

What we are watching is a paramilitary force learning that they can kill with impunity, that the regime will smear the victim and defend them. Unless politicians and the legal system exerts accountability, it will not stop. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/past-the-b...

”modeling difficult conversations“ “diverse viewpoints”— just throw all the neolib + RW talking points into a blender — to what end? who is this for? if only we all knew how to have difficult conversations, we would have a robust public health system that is accountable to all publics?

They are never, ever going to win in Minnesota.

every beard frosted over from exhalation and eyelash beaded with snow on this cold cold day as people keep moving makes me want to cry. <3

ICE detained a 5-year-old child in Minnesota to use as “bait.” An innocent child. America, let this sink in. This is what the government is doing right in front of our eyes.

Everyone on this app right now.

In 2026 I want all of the decent people to remember one thing. You aren’t meant to be this disciplined, this self-sacrificing to survive. The environment is supposed to support good living. We can have that. You are not a failure. That is politics. That is all.

If you’re wondering why your friends in academia are a little on edge right now, it’s because an eighteen-year-old who hasn’t done the reading, doesn’t look at the assignment, and has does no critical thinking skills more complex than “because I think it’s in the Bible” can literally end your career