I calculated a soccer-specific chess rating for 4,400 online games between ~100 players' accounts Top 10: 1. Marten de Roon 2. Yussuf Poulsen 3. Antonee Robinson 4. Stefan de Vrij 5. Borna Sosa 6. Christian Pulisic 7. Michael Olise 8. Kevin Prince Boateng 9. N'Golo Kante 10. Josip Stanisic

"Even after accounting for the upfront costs and delayed benefits, enrolling marginal applicants to public universities generates substantial net returns for society, the marginal students themselves, and the government budget." Public Universities FTW!

Adam Seth Levine spent three years writing a book and you just...skeeted it out. press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Great new paper highlights 4 ways for candidates to over-perform: 1. Be incumbent/previous elected 2. Get newspaper endorsements 3. Don't have a scandal 4. Be a moderate And don't worry about who you share the ballot with (5) h/t @kwcollins.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

These figures for the House races are a little clearer

New paper with Salvo Nunnari which aims to detect (partisan) motivated reasoning (MR) using experimental designs based on information order. This provides a flexible way to detect deviations from Bayesian updating which can be explained by MR. osf.io/preprints/so...

One reason I think public opinion is fundamentally important as a beat is that if people only talk to other people like them, it can be hard to get a sense of which hardships are unique to them or groups they're in, and where those struggles are broadly felt or even more acute elsewhere.

It's a defining feature of the Trump Era: unqualified people in big important jobs who don't want to do them and can't anyway so they spend a lot of time pretending to do it on TV and social media.

This is cool

I had fun hosting this podcast for @aapor.bsky.social with Rod Little and @randridge.bsky.social, where we discussed modern approaches to dealing with selection bias in surveys (and why weights may not work). I hope that AAPOR will continue to make the P.O.P. available! aapor.org/media/public...

come work with us! @bluelabs.bsky.social is hiring a survey scientist. we're looking for someone who loves working with survey data and wants to solve tricky problems facing the polling industry. please share widely! job-boards.greenhouse.io/bluelabsanal...

Our paper on how cross-cutting group memberships predict warmer out-party affect and analyses suggesting this is why Latinos in the US have warmer feelings toward the out-party is now fully published in the most recent @polbehavior.bsky.social issue. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

one of the grimmest things I’ve ever read, but happily it does contain the phrase “mysterious constellation of brutal practices”

Fifteen Years xkcd.com/3172/

1) genuine life changing moment of my early 20s was realizing I actually didn't have to do this at all. tell the youths 2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though

There's a big difference between passive and active news consumers! This week, we're joined by GSG's VP of Research, @will-jordan.bsky.social, to discuss these trends in news consumption and what it means for civic awareness and political engagement. maristpoll.com/podcast

Big new survey from Pew on Latino Americans' views of Trump's second term www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...

🚨Working paper alert🚨 This was the first project I started in my PhD, blessed with amazing co-authors! Glad to finally share our findings. Long story short: even largely symbolic and declarative state-sponsored homophobia can translate into real political behavior 👇

Philip Converse (1964), undefeated calgara.github.io/PolS5310_Spr...

It’s a scream-constantly kind of week.

People who give prescriptive advice on how to win elections should at least be descriptively accurate about what people who are doing the actual work of trying to win elections are already doing.

'Four cones wins, but in order to get a cone you have to build a civilization. Which is where the spirit cards come in'

For The District 🫡

Rowdy Audi time😤 🆚 Portland Thorns ⏰ 12pm ET 🏟️ Audi Field 📺 CBS

look as someone who can be incapacitated for weeks by the fear that I put the wrong number of exclamation points into an email this has been a fascinating glimpse into a some brains that work extremely! differently! from! mine!

4TH STRAIGHT PLAYOFF SELLOUT 😤 Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!

New: Women candidates, running on affordability, powered many of Dems’ big wins last night. Aside from the VA and NJ gov races, women made up a large % of those who flipped VA House seats + set a record for women’s representation in that chamber 19thnews.org/2025/11/demo...

“However, when candidates inoculate early and respond directly, they recover those points and sometimes gain additional margin by demonstrating their values and strength,” the memo continued.

ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*

I gotta say, I’m seeing the most Live Laugh Love women I went to all girls high school with in Ohio posting anti-ICE Instagram reels and demanding people pay attention to the threat of fascism

These two ladies are respectively from the intel and military communities. And those backgrounds set those ladies up to be the no nonsense tough ladies in their races. They were part of the draw. It gives them just a hint of small c conservative creed with certain voters.

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, facing a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap, says he won't seek reelection in #ME02

It was a great night for Democrats, and I’m so proud of GSG’s contribution to making it happen!

Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.

this is extremely correct, as a rule, although not in 100% of cases

conspiracies about polling always crack me up because have you ever heard a group of >1 survey methodologists try to come to a consensus on anything

Political inexperience in Congress has measurable effects on legislative outcomes. Our research finds that when districts elect political newcomers over career politicians, congressional dysfunction tends to increase. New explainer of our PNAS study: theconversation.com/amateur-hour...

I used to teach students that their literature reviews ought to try to characterize other arguments in ways that would be recognized by those authors. Most of the time on here, when I see someone describe what political strategists or consultants think, I don’t think it meets that bar.

People on here will post anything. 'Baseball games have 9 innings.' No they don’t. That isn’t true.

ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/... The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.

Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton: Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting. When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

F. Scott Fitzgerald: In my book I invented Gatsby lifestyle as a cautionary tale The president: At long last, we have created the Gatsby lifestyle from the classic novel The Great Gatsby

Halloween logicals, still the best 10/31 venn

Congratulations to Ryan and to DfP!

The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no. 1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6. HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal! yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...

motion to use this as a crosstab more frequently article: apnews.com/article/dayl... data: apnorc.org/projects/few...

Smart thread on the challenges of asking (and reporting on) knowledge questions in a way that's respectful of respondents:

Nearly 10 years of manly politics reporting, squished into one edifying, delicious post. Mail me my Pulitzer. daniellekurtzleben.substack.com/p/a-masculin...

Hi! I’m the Polling Director at ABC News now! My first story is here, many more TK!

IF this trend continues, we'll see a big uptick this weekend and hit approximately 750,000 early votes by Sunday night That's in addition to mail ballots cast ahead of Election Day All signs point to an overall turnout rate that's much higher than what NYC typically sees for mayoral elections 2/2