In the latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson writes that, according to Pew, an increasing # of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are uncomfortable with parts of Trump's agenda, including 4 in 10 who say he improperly encouraged probes of political opponents. Read on:

Politics is more divisive and personal for young people because our current political environment is all they’ve known. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...

I'm presenting an AAPOR webinar on Thursday on best practices. portal.aapor.org/integratedEv.... This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.

It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.

On midterm conventions, plus so many links @mattglassman312.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/midterm-co...

The fact that the current HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer isn’t the original sin; his ability to rise to prominence shows just how much the system was already broken by misinformation. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...

We asked D.C. residents what they think about Trump's takeover of local police and deployment of troops/federal agents, along with crime, statehood, the mayor and related issues wapo.st/45EHfZQ

Running into stationary objects can be painful, according to a recent pole.

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

This chart from @pewresearch.org intrigued me. For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives? Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...

I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested). This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.

This chart from @pewresearch.org intrigued me. For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives? Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...

I would like a conversion rate for what running 5.5 miles in an absolute hot soupy swamp translates to in normal miles. It has to be around 8 based on effort expended. #marathontraining

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon. No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...

I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon. No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...

Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars' (‪@nataliej.bsky.social‬) www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...

Public opinion for strikes in Iran will never look like it did before the Iraq war. We don't live in that world anymore. Whose idea it is and how we ask is what matters. There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though. @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...

Support-oppose for strikes in Iran: YouGov 35-46 (-11) Ipsos 36-45 (-9) CNN 44-56 (-12) What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.

Finally had time to read this. McBride nails the problems in our discourse, the role of social media, and the left-right dynamics in the broader culture war. She's good at this. Really good.

10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls. Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...

Global confidence in Trump: Canada: 22% Mexico: 8% ... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.

This week for @nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies? It's possible. But likely not more than a few points. But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more: www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...

My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...

"Rather than “this is what people think,” it’s more like: “This is what a bot army thinks … based on what a developer (likely not a political person) told them … which they’re not about to reveal to you. It’s the secret sauce!""

My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...

Tell me again how women are too emotional to run the country?

I talked about this piece on the show today but I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to not assume that other people think like you or make decisions for the same reason you do.

The key here is that GOP voters are still largely on board with tariffs. If they shift, congresscritters will start to flee the ship to avoid primary challenges (since most are in safe seats). Right now, though, the primary risk is going against Trump. Just ask Cornyn.

While a handful of congressional Republicans have joined efforts to bring tariff-policy powers back to the legislative branch, most are waiting and watching. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):

Against a "shadow cabinet" for the Dems. Plus the week's links @dandrezner.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social @brownphdgirl.bsky.social @rickhasen.bsky.social @jenvictor.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/no-no-shadow

For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I detailed the parallels - and distinct differences - between "but her emails" and Signalgate. Keep in mind - I wrote & published this yesterday. There are some new details not in here. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728016/is-...

When the effects of Trump’s policies do trickle down, opinion might shift against him—or it might not. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):

When ABC took down the venerable political web site FiveThirtyEight, political junkies lost more than just another web site dissecting the nation's electoral profile. @nataliej.bsky.social explains why in this unlocked column:

As a reminder, if you want my columns sent to your inbox each week, subscribe to my substack. Always free; it's just for distributing my existing work, sometimes with a little more context that didn't fit into the 800-word column or came out after I published. herdingcatsnj.substack.com

Trump has embraced an America First policy of isolationism, with which Republicans are now largely aligned. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):

This ain't your parents' Reagan conservatism. Trump has shifted a lot Republican beliefs over the last 9 years as they follow him around like lost puppies. Russia-Ukraine will be no different. Read more in my latest @nationaljournal.com column. www.nationaljournal.com/s/727730/rep...

If you want to know how to fund government programs and policies without wasting $$, you need federal surveys/data. Undermining these surveys is an under-the-radar way DOGE and Musk could be defeating their own purposes. My latest for @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/727669/mus...

If you want to know how to fund government programs and policies without wasting $$, you need federal surveys/data. Undermining these surveys is an under-the-radar way DOGE and Musk could be defeating their own purposes. My latest for @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/727669/mus...

If you're not reading everything @dellavolpe.bsky.social writes on gen z, you're doing it wrong. We have to look at why Musk's style is attractive to people - this is a good summary. dellavolpe.substack.com/p/gen-zs-new...

[email protected] writes about new research showing that people are really not moving around for politics - it's the places they live changing. (via @goodauth.bsky.social newsletter)

Those of us in Washington, D.C., know many federal workers personally but for a large swath of the country, the only federal employees they know might be their local mail carrier. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):

Double-posting day at Good Politics/Bad Politics. I had the links including @prof-b-t.bsky.social @pklinkne.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social and more, plus a short riff on one of the weekend's kerfuffles goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/ceasefires... And...

Normally I'd just post the link to this piece on polling in 2024 and the future that I was interviewed for, but I do like that Nate Silver said we are "some of America's best pollsters," so here's the screenshot of that:

Donald Trump and Republicans have been describing November's win as a "mandate". It's more complicated than that. @nataliej.bsky.social explains how and why it matters in her latest (and unlocked) Leading Indicators column: