This is an interesting paper. I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.

"The Credibility Revolution in Political Science" osf.io/preprints/so...

Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen? My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world! 📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560

This is wild! Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.

🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨 We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social Any questions, please reach out to me 📣 Please share! 📣 jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.

This is a wonderful book! So happy to see this out! Congrats @mduque.bsky.social

Is this what hell is like?

Is this what hell is like?

📣Call for papers now open for our annual Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. Rome🔥, May 28-29, 2026. More details below👇

A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain

This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Sandra Sequeira (LSE) on "Financial Security, Climate Shocks, and Social Cohesion". Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.

Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp.... genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.

An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026 really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting ⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...

🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨 Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

I just ordered @vincentab.bsky.social 's epic new book Model to Meaning. This project is one of the most exciting recent developments in data science. The book & #rstats / #python package show how to understand your model *within* its real-world context/use case. www.routledge.com/Model-to-Mea...

Absolutely beautiful performance.

Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...

If people in government want my longer thoughts on why arbitrarily extending the time to ILR for people who are already here is bad (let alone the mass deportation policies of their rivals), and a sense of what I think a sustainable policy might be, then see: benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...

New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation. Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf

BTW let's appreciate the sheer bathetic comedy of Trump's threats sliding from WE'RE GOING TO BAN ALL CRITICAL SOFTWARE WE WILL BRING YOUR ECONOMY TO A HALT down to WE'LL MAKE OUR OWN COOKING OIL SEE IF WE DON'T.

This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Massimo Morelli (Bocconi) on "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe" Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.

Highly recommend @nikhil-kalyanpur.bsky.social's substack The Price of Power for anyone interested in money and politics and what the latest social science research has to say about it.

📢 Call for Papers! We’re inviting submissions for the @politicalnetworks.bsky.social Online Colloquium (2025–26) (w/ @mtp.bsky.social) 🔹 Monthly, 1-hr sessions 🔹 Read-ahead format (no presentations) 🔹 Open to scholars in poli sci & related fields 🔹 Deadline: 17 Oct 2025 Learn more & submit here 👇

Kicking off this year's seminar series with Lucy Barnes (@lucy-barnes.bsky.social) on "Economic Orientations and Preferences Over Redistributive Taxation." Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.

Just out in the NBER.....identification of a structural model of human capital skill formation amongst adolescents using a field experiment. www.nber.org/papers/w34274

Political campaigns now burn 30¢ of every dollar raised just fundraising for more dollars (up from 9¢ in 2004). In 2024, $3 Billion was spent on fundraising. In 2026, fundraising costs are on track to exceed advertising spending for the first time.

Uh oh...

Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

Deadline for PEIO 2026: September 30.

📣 Climate politics (+ adjacent subfields) researchers! @antvalentim.bsky.social and I will co-chair the Climate Politics section of @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026. Thanks to those who already submitted papers 🌟 We put together notes for the CfP for the section curious. Reach out if you have qs:

New WP thread! 🤓 Vietnam's solar panel exports boomed between 2018 and 2022. With my PhD student Meng Yu Ngov, Trang Thu Tran, and Gaurav Nayyar we look at how this industry success can be attributed to attracting FDI and importing parts and components, as well to Chinese subsidy spillovers.👇

🚨🚨 We’re hiring! 🚨🚨 We have 3 lines open in CP, IR and IPE — all tenure-track. We offer competitive salaries, a 2:1 teaching load, in a friendly (and fully in English) environment, at one of Europe’s most sought-after cities.

I am thrilled that my article "The nation-state, non-Western empires, and the politics of cultural difference" is now out in the American Journal of Political Science. doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

📄 Call for Papers: #EPSS2026 Belfast
The call is out! Submit your proposals here:
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Proposals are already coming in, please help us spread the word! 4/

Please share: @alanjacobs.bsky.social and I are running a Jan '26 course at @gesis.org Cologne on 𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models All in two heady days. training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...

"Because USD rallied during the crisis, there is an assumption that foreign investors moved funds into the US [...] The bid for US bonds came from central banks [...], not private investors. [...] While foreign capital fled the US, US capital also fled global markets and returned home in 2008."

📣Conference announcement: Our PhD students are organizing a graduate conference. See call below. Call for abstracts: PPE for Public Policy Graduate Conference at King's College London Conference date: 26 Nov 2025 Abstract submission deadline: 29 Sep Apply here (+ details): tinyurl.com/5n7xv5cr

1/blockbuster decision on Trump tariffs. Regardless of what happens at the Supreme Court, stretching national security laws to their limit, Trump has put the cornerstone of US coercion at risk. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

➡️ Deadline approaching—only one month left to send in your papers and presentation proposals for #CDSM2025! 🚨 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀: 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 🚨 📅 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟭𝟮–𝟭𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 (𝗩𝗶𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹) 📥 Submission Deadline: 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁 𝟯𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

- 7 dos 10 bilionários com menos de 30 anos são herdeiros da Weg - Weg é a empresa que mais receberá $ da política industrial g1.globo.com/economia/not...

Mais que 50 bolsas Fulbright disponíveis para estudantes e professores brasileiros, 2027/2027. Inscrições abertas. fulbright.org.br/bolsas-para-...

Good morning, everyone. After introducing my book about looted art yesterday, let me tell you more about what's in there. Today is about Napoleon. Napoleon stole a lot of shit, no really, it was insane. In fact, the era of systematic state-sponsored looting on mass scale began with Napoleon. thread👇

1/ 🧵I did an extensive test of GPT-5 Pro vs Gemini Deep Think on unseen #gametheory questions with no solutions available online. Here's my frank review with a clear ranking

"European leaders are tentatively hopeful after call with Trump" www.bbc.com/news/article...

Administrative data 1-0 Survey data "The findings will be a relief to the chancellor after a series of surveys, based mainly on anecdotal evidence, suggested her tax policies had prompted huge numbers of wealthy individuals to flee the country."

When I say 'the government has no project' this is a good example of that, where on the one hand we have 'remove barriers for critical infrastructure' and on the other we have 'but stop hiring construction workers from overseas'.