explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statist... Critical data for Milburn Review for 18-21 age group Participation in FT HE (L4-6) higher in 2024 than 2018 at 18, 19, 20 and 21 but lower in FT FE (L3 and below) at 18, 19, 20 and 21 Only 1.1% of 20 year olds in FT FE

I've said for 15 years we should take what (bond) markets *do* very seriously - by looking at market prices/interest rates - but we should almost entirely ignore what bond investors *say*. Assume the FT's intention in printing this garbled nonsense is to back me up. www.ft.com/content/08d9...

NEW: The links between disadvantage and the achievement grade in school inspection Recent Ofsted analysis showed that achievement grades in inspection were related to the attainment of disadvantaged pupils. We dig into this a bit more in our latest post. vist.ly/58zbp

Yes, obviously it is suspended, but is it operating or not? Useless TfL app.

William Morris foresaw its use as a storage place for horse manure in his medievalist utopia News from Nowhere. He was a leading activist in the Society for the Preservation of Ancient Buildings so wanted it preserved. Presumably.

Fascinating episode - includes bit at the top of the show where it totally debunks Jeremy Hunt banging on about people being better off on benefits than working.

Hovering in Havering.

3. This higher fraud and error rate for this Covid cohort was predominantly due to higher income-related fraud and error and specifically for those reporting self employment. This is at least partly because the government eased checks on self-employed claimants during the peak of the pandemic.

The OBR have released a new insightful report overpayments on fraud and overpayments in the benefit system. A brief🧵 explaining the key points:

It's 37c out there, feels like 38, and streets given over entirely to cars, without trees, are unbearably hot. We need a rethink

HMRC tried something innovative to reduce fraud and error in child benefit payments but didn't pay proper attention to risk management or the impact on claimants whose claims were incorrectly stopped. When doing high stakes innovation, governance and risk mgt are key! www.nao.org.uk/reports/hmrc...

Nearly 1 in 3 (31%) of students in higher education are now commuting It doesn't feel the national discussion or HE practice has adapted to this reality, which raises questions about 'business as usual' practices around timetabling as well as the 'student experience' www.hepi.ac.uk/2026/06/23/a...

“The more children you let play in a park, the higher the chance at least one of them gets abducted. That’s just statistics. If you want the park to be entirely safe, there’s only one way forward: ban kids” capx.co/nimbys-go-ap...

Like many people I am interested in the rate of UK prime ministerial churn, so I wrote an #rstats blog on it and experimenting with various visualisation approaches. I quite like this Gantt-like chart showing the terms of all PMs since 1721. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/06...

Discovering Dinosaurs - a descendant of #PrehistoricPlanet - returns to Lightroom London on July 18th 2026, and you can book places now. An extraordinary experience that I really recommend... lightroom.uk/whats-on/pre...

Let’s not fudge why Starmer is in this mess. Yes, he didn’t have political instinct. Yes, the public is much less patient and more critical. But Starmer was also - to use his own phase - morally bankrupt on key issues of the day, from Gaza, disability benefits, to immigration.

Vehicle damage is axle weight to the fourth power. Take a car from 1 tonne to 2 tonnes and the road damage went up 16 Times. If you want to charge a cyclist a £100 fee then it is only fare that a 3 tonne Range Rover pays a proportionate amount. Which I believe is more than Elon Musks total “worth”

I spoke to BBC Newcastle about 10 years on from Brexit and how we didn't really replace ERDF and ESF despite promising to. Don’t worry, this isn’t a linkedin post… the story has been shared to Facebook pages and I can’t stand to look in case loads of Facebook boomers are calling me names.

It seems to have become commonplace to blame net zero for Britain’s high energy bills and/or weak job market… … and I guess I’ll have to explain again why there is very little evidence of this. Britain has plenty of economic problems; net zero is not high on that list (though climate change is) 🧵

Some drivers feel untouchable - soundproofed, tech-laden, insulated from the world outside. That isolation breeds complacency, while pedestrians and cyclists feel the danger every time these vehicles fly past. Drivers need to put safety before convenience and time saved.

BBC article about Brian Ripley of the #RStats Core team given this week's excellent news concerning 2026 Rousseeuw Price for Statistics recognition for him and the core team. www.bbc.com/news/article...

The images from Edinburgh are horrifying, and my thoughts are with those affected by these shocking attacks. The suspect appears to have been motivated by anti-Muslim hatred. We must condemn racism & division in the strongest terms, and show our solidarity to the Muslim community. (1/2)

Why building safe routes to walk and cycle is really good value for money. [From my newsletter: diagramclub.substack.com ]

This is going to make @jamesomalley.co.uk very sad, and also, I have learned that the PAF is sneakily seeded with deliberate errors to catch out people trying to pull a wheeze like Codeberry. #FreeThePAF

The tale of the ruler whose reflection turned to slime is beyond what even the Brothers Grimm conceived. This is Angela Carter or Italo Calvino territory, and it is wonderful.

My answer is that centre-right politicians used to have a dismissive view about the loss of manufacturing jobs, arguing that they were things of the past and the economy had to adjust. And now they very much do not make that argument. So you have manufacturing nostalgia across the political spectrum

If you can afford to go private (with the same provider as the NHS Right to Choose): - Assessment wait time: 4 weeks - Medication appt: 2-3 weeks. Yet another way to widen inequality, the attainment gap and future NEET rates.

Hundreds of applications. Dozens of rejections. Youth unemployment at its highest level in more than a decade. So is a degree still worth it? The evidence suggests the answer is more nuanced than many headlines imply. @eastangliabylines.co.uk

Even if informed, people don't care that their car of choice is significantly more deadly for pedestrians and cyclists. Not surprising, sadly. It's clear that action is needed to stop car bloat. After all, it's a core task of a state to protect the vulnerable.

And importantly… every single reporter was updated with the outcome of their report. Why? Well…It gives clarity, improves future reporting, encourages more reports — and it’s just good manners!!

1,144 uninsured vehicles seized across Northamptonshire in last 5 months. 600 disposed of — on top of penalty points & rocketing premiums. Why is this important? Well.. Uninsured drivers are 7x more likely to be in a fatal crash, more likely to flee the scene & over half are linked to other crime.

Incredible new paper documenting extremely lethal plague outbreaks in Siberia, around Lake Baikal, as early as 5500 years ago. The likely source? Marmots, which still act as a reservoir of plague bacteria today. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Should have tagged @annadent.bsky.social for her digital welfare state newsletter.

I see DWP is linking up with Linkedin to harvest data. www.theregister.com/public-secto.... The comment that: "Given that the majority of the jobs on LI are fake (clickbait for cheap recruiters to amass lots of CVs) this is going to be of as much use for the stated purpose as..." may be relevant.

The 2026 Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics has been awarded to the R Project. #RStats www.rousseeuwprize.org/2026

The 2026 laureates are Brian Ripley, Martin Maechler, Kurt Hornik, Peter Dalgaard, and Luke Tierney who have made the longest sustained contribution to #RStats. Half of the $1m prize money is awarded to the laureates and half to the rest of the Core Team.

Found in my basement preparatory to moving house. With some reference for the Milburn report, interim and forthcoming. 2004 comments on lost generation and a million not in work or education. Working Brief 157, 2004.

New voter just dropped: Dead Man www.economist.com/britain/2025...

It's very rare in politics for someone to outright come out and say they were wrong. This was one of the more remarkable conversations I've had while covering local politics.

4. But the PIP caseload doesn’t just depend on how many people apply each month – it also matters how long people remain on the benefit. The proportion of PIP reviews that result in the benefit being reduced or removed has fallen over the past few years and is well below its 2019 level.

5. Finally, it’s striking that despite PIP being badged a ‘working-age’ benefit, one-in-six (17 per cent) of the caseload are now over State Pension age! You can't claim PIP as a pensioner but existing claimants can keep receiving it. We now have hundreds of thousands of PIP claimants in their 70s.

People usually talk very loosely about productivity. ONS have a blog update on measurement issues. blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/06/16/h.... This doesn't change that, for the market sector, realised sales are the key basis. It does change the way working hours are estimated to form the denominator.

The key lesson of Windrush IMO is the government should be very careful to change rules that apply to existing groups of immigrants. They will almost certainly lack a holistic sense of the impact. And the government is just crashing straight through that warning

The age verification aspect might be misleading - this seems to be just a restatement of the position under the e-commerce directive. But the decision on liability for algorithmic recommendation is *explosive*.

Greetings from Kyiv. I woke up and hugged life. Five people were killed in the attack. Damage was reported. I’m determined to show Ukrainian culture and history. This is what russia fears and tries to destroy. Here is the Dormition Cathedral as I saw it undamaged: www.patreon.com/strategywoma...

Entirely related, because nobody does effective policy around tech. Nobody.

@jdportes.bsky.social and I have updated our estimates of the impact of Brexit and the new migration regime on immigration, now that we have new data for 2025. 1

Cannot imagine a more telling sign of Russian desperation. A wonderful, historic landmark of tremendous cultural value being attacked out of fear and what must be a growing understanding of Russian failure.

Socioeconomic status/environment explains more variation in childhood brain organization than IQ. 4.5 million children live in poverty in the UK (UK Gov's own data) >30% - it is an absolute disgrace! This should the the top priority of every govt minister & policy maker, not more money for bombs.

We are seeing a near-record early melt-out of sea ice in the Barents Sea region of the #Arctic this summer. This is at least partially in response to the anomalous warmth there the last several months. Map of the general location: zacklabe.com/arctic-clima...