Right now people are not taking risk, the distribution is too symmetrical. We're stuck in a holding pattern - most people believe we're in the endgame. A few days of relative stability can suck them back in. When I start to see it I'll start thinking about chasing risk off again.

I would say, "called it", but it's all so crashingly obvious bsky.app/profile/robi...

Well folks, it's been some time and it's half past midnight but here are my initial thoughts on the situation as I find it. bclmacro.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...

Oh yes good job everyone so in control here that only Iran can export crude. Outstanding work.

"After more than two weeks of consistent bombing, new US intelligence suggests Iran’s regime is now consolidating power, unlikely to collapse, and led by a cadre more extreme than before." 😬 www.cato.org/blog/strateg...

Private sector 'Efficiency'

In physical irony news, just managed to cut my finger by literally catching a falling knife as as I was washing up - very apposite given today's trading...

When people bemoan the lack of craft in modern manufacturing etc this is why right?

Was there some kind of adjustment or technical change that resulted in the participation rate moving so much in this nfp release?

Imagine telling someone any time over the past 20 years that the Strait of Hormuz would get blocked and oil would only be $75

Oh now I get it. Dubai is Golgafrinchan Ark B.

I think about this Tony Benn speech much more than I used to

do you know what would help!!!!!!!! living in a society that lets people experiment with their gender without treating it like the most important thing in the world!!!!!!! letting people get it right or wrong without politicising their decisions!!!!!!! just being chilled about gender!!!!!! aaahhhhhh

This is a 100% elite manufactured craze.

Further evidence that neo- liberalism is destroying itself. Privatisation has resulted in less house building, more expensive infrastructure and public transport, generated inter - generational inequality and hollowed out state capacity to respond.

The “as long as they pay their taxes” bit seemed to get a bit lost along the way?

God damn it I thought he'd been doing this kind of brown nosing in private. Hats off to the trump lot on this one they really managed to sell him as the moderate option.

I get the feeling we are all getting confused here. Risk on normally means buying assets with $ because your optimistic about returns. Selling $ because you don't have confidence in it is different.

We have a capacity to enjoy cruelty. Some people have never reckoned with it or recognised it in themselves. They are the rank and file of the right.

This map is a thing of beauty and explains so much about why norther rail is a thorny issue.

I seem to have been put on a follow list, grateful if someone could tell me whose so I can thank appropriately and welcome to bluesky all!

You have to understand that they do not and will not ever play ‘fair’. They will distort reality in whatever way suits them. Their side are martyrs and anyone else killed by their thugs is just collateral.

A 23 year old larping as a journalist made a misleading and inaccurate YouTube video that the administration full of chronically online shitposters used to justify the “largest immigration operation ever” and now someone is dead

There is a difference between "Michelin rated" and "Michelin stars". In fact, Boston has previsely one restaurant, with a single Michelin star. Same as Anglesey.

Further evidence that Reform voters are the most distinct political group in the country benansell.substack.com/p/odd-ones-out

Would also like to know...

the photographer was definitely like, "ok everybody, look tough!" but we know they're all just reading tweets with their arms crossed in a country club dining room divided up by bedsheets tacked to the beams

Does anyone know why empire manufacturing has a low print every 3 months? The timing shifted by one month since last year

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The 25th anniversary of Bush v Gore is today. The conspiracy mongering & corruption of the GOP has been brewing for a long time. Roberts, Barrett and Kavanaugh were all on Bush's legal team, where they pushed unfounded legal theories. SC justices were already enmeshed in voter fraud myths.

If Miran really believed that policy was enormously restrictive, he should allow his preferred cuts to compound over time. Should be at least a percentage point by now. Have the courage of your conviction man!

I don't really post anymore, but I would like to carry on writing books at some point in the future. Hate to be annoying, but any chance you could retweet so old twitter followers can find me if they want to? Going to delete my twitter, or at least abandon it on lock and let it die a slow death.

This week's post for paid subscribers: a recipe for pork and cabbage baozi that I pried out of Vivian's mum's hands

I think if we really tried we could just egspunge the so called letter 'x' from the English language

A cooler-sized machine on wheels is absolutely not the threat to accessibility either. Experience of these being rolled out in local authorities is they’re pretty good on that metric, because they create a large commercial demand for dropped kerbs, flat pavements, and unblocked footpaths

Whatever comes of today, this is worth celebrating.

A completely predictable collapse. Inconceivable to knock on doors for these people.

I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture. They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1

This is one of the big accounts boosting Tommy Robinson, Farage and Reform and ‘English Patriots’. It’s Russian.

Those who are pursuing increasingly racialised politics lecture the rest of us about how we are out of touch. All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public. Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.

Most people know whats up and politicians need to get off twitter and start talking to them like adults.

Seriously, and I cannot emphasize this enough, fuck this guy. He's a modern day Josef Mengele. Neurodiversity is part of human biodiversity. Autistic traits were evolutionarily selected for. They exist in every population, which means they existed when our ancestors left Africa millennia ago 7/x

Know nothing about equities. I’m a half decent study of human nature though. All of which is to say even a mild miss tom night on the world’s biggest announcement should see punters getting back in. Convincing themselves it’s all good. As good as it ever was.

“Have fun staying poor” is one of the repeated refrains you’ll hear from people doing this stuff. The conditions for collective action require that people believe in positive sum outcomes - and socially we are struggling to make the case that people should care about the greater good.

We're stuck with it, but determining someone's legal rights based on a nebulous combination of birthplace and parentage is actually pretty fucking weird, and it'd be better if we talked about it as an unfortunate practical necessity not a natural phenomenon

Currently 20-1 on Betfair markets you know what to do...

I often think about how the government hounded Aaron Swartz to death for scraping Jstor, yet all these AI companies scraped almost literally all of human knowledge (and continue to do so even when they're told to stop) and have had no criminal consequences.