Bonds trading like shit. First time round it was bunds and gilts leading. Now it's Treasuries

Surely people should be more upset that they're removing a woman from all the banknotes and replacing her with a man

A war that starts on the first day of the month and ends before the end of the month so oil prices fall back before the measurement for CPI

Amazing they can do this considering their navy has been destroyed

the main global response to Trump's actions in Iran will be more windmills yes other renewable stuff too but given how much he hates windmills, it's fun

It appears that the binding constraint on a rogue executive's policy option set isn't congress or anything so prosaic as the people's electoral will -- it is what the market will allow him to do.

Trump talks shit and people just believe him

Interestingly, spot crude is trading lower but implied volatility is not

I'd be very impressed if Trump's war on Iran were an attempt to show the world that Asia was over reliant on energy imports and therefore the US was by far the best place to invest

He's realised that to end more wars, he has to start them first

Ground invasion map

If you think commando raids on Iran are a decent idea, take a look at Operation Eagle Claw. Iran is a big place and access isn't easy

No Red Sea means it won't look like this

The funniest thing about the response of energy markets to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is that Ofgem had just announced a 7% fall in the energy price cap

Strong and stable government with me or chaos with Kamala Harris

meme for the Trump presidency www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc...

At least they're honest about it this time

Ok this is the signal to buy toilet rolls

Sounds like there isn't a deal

When growth is slowing, this is the totally wrong approach but they have form

ECB hawks when they see an inflation shock

Tbf all economists forecasts look like this after a shock, which is why recessions are never forecast, but those are usually measured over quarters. In this case, a few days is very specific

Goldman on Hormuz: abracadabra

Easy: Clicks and likes

Imagine telling someone any time over the past 20 years that the Strait of Hormuz would get blocked and oil would only be $75

Erdoğan will be delighted

The US forcing US insurers to insure boats to go through the Strait of Hormuz is going to be a massive scam. People will be sailing heaps of junk and hoping/expecting to get a payment from the US govt

If unlimited, why is it not in my garden

This is the kind of language I expect from a senior member of the US administration

No insurance means only insane people want to transport oil which means no oil transportation

BBC called it

Of course. These channels are now only open to the Chinese

Please send your schadenfreude to all the tax exiles in Dubai

Under four months till Iran kick off in Group G of the World Cup, hosted by the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize winner.

Iran simply needs to speed up plate tectonics and the Strait of Hormuz will close

Cancelling policies is normal in a warzone. 50% price increase is rather less problematic

Bored of Peace

The big Q is just how badly the Tories will do at the local elections in May

Podcasters discovering that subs != votes

This spoof is fantastic, not least for the aging choices they’ve made for the tech broligarchs. youtu.be/zdkBUuWCZg4?...

Happy for the Greens but they're not a serious party in the UK. Otherwise G&D has somehow served up a bad result for Reform, Tories and Labour. The latter 2, after having trashed their reputations, have an excuse. Reform not so much and are probably hitting some sort of ceiling of support

Oil vol above 60 and going for the high the last time Trump destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities

Wild ranges

NVDA to go up in $ value as much as MSFT, AMZN, META, etc go down because their overinvestment is NVDAs gain

Why would we hold to our end of the bargain when you've lost your end and can't bargain any more?

Those Geneva caterers are doing great business

away from the bizarre existence of this, note how Trump never passes the puck to someone else

reading The Guns of August. Is it bad that I'm rooting for the Germans? The Allies are so useless

Reference for gold prices

Wild. From Only Connect