Never forget they gave a Riksbank Nobel to the guy who said we could calculate the magnitude and consequences of global warming with such precision it would be possible to decide how much of it we wanted.

Two crucial differences between China shocks #1 and #2: - Export prices falling instead of rising - Imports flatlining instead of rising www.ft.com/content/4687...

In a world of fossil price shocks and Chinese cleantech dominance, carbon shock therapy emerges as the default stance of states unwilling, or unable, to support their industries through a green transformation. New with @danielagabor.bsky.social on green macrofinancial regimes in the Hormuz crisis.

📣 Call for Papers 📣 The OBFA-TRANSFORM research group is hosting a workshop on 12-13 June at the Freie Universität Berlin! The title is "Monetary Architecture. Mapping the Web of Interlocking Balance Sheets in Times of Change". See the CfP here: tinyurl.com/5n7aab2r ▶️ Apply by 10 April

"How does hiking rates help with oil price shocks" It's not that central bankers don't have any answers to such questions. It's more they often seem embarrassed to give those answers

I have a new review paper out in @environmentalpol.bsky.social! ✨ What would it actually take for states to pursue green transformations? I identify 5 capacities — planning, disciplinary, strategic, legitimation and adaptive — and their respective policy elements, capabilities and institutions

At the OBFA-TRANSFORM group, we sometimes do videos on our publications - now it was my turn, with @olanmcevoy.bsky.social interviewing me on our paper on the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the limits to incremental fiscal integration in Europe! www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT7P...

Excellent summary of the large body of work @steffenmurau.bsky.social and colleagues have done on the Offshore (US) Dollar Syatem www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru... @phenomenalworld.bsky.social Look here for the bigger body of work: steffenmurau.com/portfolio/in...

“Those who want to translate their nativist politics into monetary precepts have failed to reckon with the credit-based, offshore, nature of money today.” @steffenmurau.bsky.social on year one of Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...

I'm don't think we should get too excited about this. Eurodollar structure is dollar assets funded by dollar liabilities. If Europe moves to dump dollar assets it's left with ... large dollar liabilities. Not a great position to be in, particularly if access to dollar swap lines is questionable.

📝 Our report on the transformation of South Africa’s monetary architecture (1983-2024) co-authored with Mark Swilling for the National Planning Commission of South Africa has been launched last week! 📝 Find the full report here: www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/assets/Docum...

We recently published a study on the transformation of the Eurozone architecture (🔗 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...., with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano & @rikereimer.bsky.social) and launched an accompanying interactive online tool (🔗 monetary-architecture.com). This is how it came to be 👇

📝 New publication 📝 We have now published our study on the Transformation of the Eurozone Architecture, co-authored with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano, and @rikereimer.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

📣 News from the OBFA-TRANSFORM project 📣 Our Emmy Noether research group is fast approaching its halfway point and we’ve recently received confirmation of funding from @dfg.de for the second project period from 2026 to 2029 🎊 That's why we are launching our new website at obfa-transform.eu

things are happening in the OBFA-TRANSFORM film studio today... 👀 @steffenmurau.bsky.social @olanmcevoy.bsky.social @ fanny without bluesky

+++ Neuer Artikel für die SWP +++ 🌍 Viele Staaten stehen heute vor großen geoökonomischen Herausforderungen, von resilienter Energieinfrastruktur bis zur Handelspolitik. Historisch wurden hierfür immer wieder bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen geschaffen, für dringend benötigten finanziellen Spielraum.

Der US-Dollar verliert an Dominanz. Schlägt die Stunde des Euro? Unser Report zeigt: Eine stärkere Euro-Internationalisierung bringt nur kleine Nettoeffekte für's BIP. Globarer Euro ist nicht automatisch ein Vorteil. Zum Report von Nils Gerresheim, @maxkrahe.bsky.social, @jvtk.bsky.social ⬇️

Da ist der endlich: Der neue Leviathan-Sonderband "Politische Theorien öffentlicher Finanzen - Zur (De-)Politisierung von Geld, Eigentum und Steuern" ist ausgepackt! @nomosverlag.bsky.social www.nomos-shop.de/de/p/politis...

Was macht nachhaltige Staatsfinanzen wirklich aus? @steffenmurau.bsky.social und @moritzkapff.bsky.social wissen weiter 👇

Brad of course agrees Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels. I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know

It is a pretty dire indictment on the quality of German policy-making if we blast billions on stay-at-home subsidies and gastronomy tax cuts. And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century

"China is the only large country driving the energy transition at anything close to the necessary speed and scale." It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability. Coincidence? I think not.

Energy sector advantage by continent 2/

Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France. Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.

beantrage vier monate sabbatical um meinem lesestapel hinterherzukommen

CBI is legitimised by 2 arguments. Progressives should defend 1 and keep fighting against 2. 1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly 2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands

NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️ x33 rise in Algeria solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths. x8 in Zambia x7 in Botswana x6 in Sudan x3 in each of Liberia, DRC, Benin, Angola, Ethiopia 🧵

None of this is to say the US tariffs won’t hurt European exports — they will. Europe had legit cause to retaliate now. But I doubt a militarily more independent future Europe has the will, impetus and import-competition concern to reopen a broad trade war on the US. 6/

The whole China green manufacturing thing is understood - I think? - as a key factor in the energy complex, geopolitics, and climate. People have heard of the Pakistan story; where a quarter of electricity is now solar compared to >10% in 2023. But, like: things keep happening!

Die EZB hat dafür kein gutes Werkzeug: Laufen lassen ist sozialer Sprengstoff. Mit dem Zinshammer draufhauen bremst die ganze Wirtschaft und löst das grundsätzliche Problem nicht. dezernatzukunft.org/en/der-zinsh...

Im September erscheint ein von @huhnholz.bsky.social, @aaronsahr.bsky.social und Eva Weiler herausgegebener Sonderband zur Politischen Theorie öffentlicher Finanzen. Es geht darum, ökonomische, geldpolitische und fiskalische Fragen endlich wieder zum Gegenstand politischen Denkens zu machen.

Ha-Joon Chang on the neglect of climate and the environment in today's economics degree @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/9aab...

Ganz eindrücklich, in diesen Tagen sein Fahrrad in der Werkstatt zu haben: Man ist urplötzlich aufgeschmissen in Berlin, wo es immer wunderbar ging mit Nextbike. Wie einsam ist Berlin jetzt unter Metropolen mit Anspruch auf Welt- oder wenigstens Westgeltung ohne taugliches Leihradsystem?

Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte.

Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte, schreiben @steffenmurau.bsky.social und Moritz Kapff.

they need to just spend one day in shanghai and that problem would be solved

🚨 Out now: Die dritte Surplus-Ausgabe »Wir kümmern uns« ist da. Neoliberale schaffen einen Staat, der die Menschen allein lässt. Doch es braucht gemeinsame Fürsorge. In den nächsten Tagen im Briefkasten, am Kiosk oder sofort online auf: 👉 www.surplusmagazin.de/surplus-3-wi...

Very happy to see that the article @moritzecon.bsky.social and I have written on Germany's "fiscal ecosystem" has just been published online and in print in Surplus Magazine www.surplusmagazin.de/staat-schatt...

Striking back hard at MAGA's Miran/Bessent plans, @steffenmurau.bsky.social and I propose a SUERF User's guide for euro internationalisation (based on our recent JEPP article) www.suerf.org/publications...

Might start referring to myself as having been 'radicalised by the macro intelligentsia'.

We propose a typology organized around 1. the scale of green public spending 2. the degree of discipline imposed on private capital: This yields four green macrofinancial regimes:

Really great piece by @katie0martin.ft.com on our recent euro internationalisation paper, rightly concluding that fear of "industrial amounts of arguing" remains the EU's biggest obstacle www.ft.com/content/16e7...

Droughts could wipe out nearly 15 per cent of economic output in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank has warned. Via @kenzabryan.ft.com. www.ft.com/content/2b19...

Here's a couple, from various pieces of research with @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @johnspringford.bsky.social and Brad Setser, that I've been sharing at conferences: Clean technology exports already account for 4% of Germany's GDP, a figure unmatched by any other G7 country or even China. 2/

🚨 New open access article 🚨 Out now in Journal of Financial Regulation with Alex Goghie and Matteo Giordano 'Encumbered Security? Vertical and Horizontal Repos in the Euro Area and Their Inherent Ambiguity' academic.oup.com/jfr/advance-...

Nils' point is accurate. The math is simple: no, even with Germany doing its part, Europe can't fill the gap left by fading US demand. The US accounts for ~50% of global trade deficits. DEU's expected trade surplus decline will provide incremental demand to the global economy similar to FRA.

Dear WSJ Editorial Board, your April 25th piece on Germany's energy transition fundamentally misunderstands both renewable energy systems and modern grid architecture. Your "hostage to weather" narrative misses the mark. 1/