"If this shift represents an excursion into a new normal, our future could be hotter faster than expected." A year after this insightful study was published, the albedo and net flux over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude oceans keep decreasing: www.science.org/stoken/autho...

📢 New paper on the impacts of AMOC collapse on European hydroclimate. 🌊 We find an AMOC collapse would exacerbate drought conditions across Europe, linked to reduced precipitation. In combination with climate change droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe. doi.org/10.5194/hess...

“We have observational evidence and ocean modeling results to document that kilometer-scale seawater intrusions beneath grounded ice generate a high melt in the [grounding zone of Thwaites Glacier].” www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....

In the past year we've had a series of papers with results that've shocked #climate scientists - the globe is heating #FasterThanExpected & we don't fully know why The public discourse is not keeping up. Here's a series of 5 new studies that climate hawks & journos need to have on their radar 🧵

Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning.​​ This effect is usually absent from models. Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)

Would you believe it: just 10 days after #EarthCARE went through the eye of Hurricane Humberto, it did the same with Hurricane Priscilla in the East Pacific on 7 October! A very different beast this one: a huge eye around 100 km across, and very lopsided, with much more rain on the southern side.

Read our editorial on #climate research in the Global South, and take a look at the collection of papers on #weather and climate extremes published in @natcomms.nature.com and @commsearth.nature.com www.nature.com/collections/...

I just updated this NASA CERES graph. The regional level of Absorbed Solar Radiation increased by 4.2 W/m² in 20 years!! That's more than the global greenhouse gas forcing increase since 1750! The 2 W/m² Net Flux increase indicates that there is a lot more regional warming in the pipeline.

Finally, some excellent resources on the 2023 SST anomalies: @polarocean.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/pola... @trackow.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/trac... bsky.app/profile/mice... @tguinaldo.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/tgui... @profmattengland.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/prof...

🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎 Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇 doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Hope you enjoy exploring this cool 3D app of the ocean focusing on NOAA World Ocean Atlas water column measurements of temp, salinity, dissolved O2, and nutrients! #voxels #EcologicalMarineUnits www.esri.com/about/newsro... 🌊 🦑 🌎 🌍 🌏 #GISchat #geogchat #geogsky

Enfin, la température de l'eau à la surface de la mer Méditerrannée entre la France rt l'Afrique du Nord a été historiquement élevée (tous mois confondus) en juin : jusqu'à 27 °C, soit +3,7 °C par rapport à la "normale". 3/3

New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes. We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

#FIMC2025, Sarah Keeley (@‌copernicusecmwf.bsky.social) showed how coupling ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere boosts forecast accuracy. Storms, heatwaves, even sea ice changes—what lies beneath shapes what’s above. AI is now taking it further. #CoupledForecasting #ECMWF #AI4Weather #UNOC3

To celebrate the kick-off of #UNOC3 and #OOSC in Nice, we share a striking, mesmerising perspective on Mediterranean Marine Heatwaves —and their clear amplification by climate change. From @awi.de storyline simulations, visual by @jawijan.bsky.social

If I can add something. Here we demonstrate that NATL warming was due to natural variability. The event was excepted and in line with climate projections (return period around 10 years). The processes are well known and we can explain it. www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Important new article in @nature.com: "...the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend." #TruthIsBadEnough (h/t @flowinguphill.bsky.social)

If only people valued peer reviewed scientific papers and regional data more than tweets and blogs and global averages... This is barely ever addressed. Helge Goessling gave a great presentation at the EGU yesterday. More soon.

It's a wrap for this year's European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, where we have been presenting developments from across #ECMWF. Our team have been involved as speakers, poster presenters and conveners, but found time to get together for this great group photo!

Today @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social gave a great talk on the ocean carbon sink during the record-warm year 2023 & an outlook for 24. #EGU25 This relates to our joint work @awi.de @ecmwf.int that is presented Thursday morning, room 0.14. See you there: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

Our editors are calling for submissions to help build a robust, peer-reviewed evidence base for the forthcoming IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities. Read more 👇 latitude.plos.org/2024/11/call...

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

I will be presenting our results at #EGU25 in a poster on Wednesday. 🌀 So if you'd like to chat about the Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 models, find me there! The poster: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-... The paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

We will be at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly next week, presenting developments from across #ECMWF. Find out which sessions we are involved in as speakers, poster presenters and conveners ➡ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med... #EGU2025 @egu.eu

For a new visualization project @awi.de, I’m currently experimenting with satellite imagery, elevation data, and OSM. Exciting! @blender.org

Exploring ways to visualise wind together with my colleague @sbeyer.net at AWI. Here’s a glimpse: IFS-FESOM wind speed visualised as coloured particles.

Our new study is out: The Arctic Beaufort Gyre is projected to weaken or vanish in most CMIP6 models under future climate change. The gyre would thus stop storing freshwater in its centre, with possibly large impacts on the Arctic and beyond. Read: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊 Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇

How will interaction with geophysical data evolve in the age of AI? 🤖🌍 In our latest preprint, we explore this question - not just conceptually, but with a hands-on prototype using the PANGAEA archive. Check it out! arxiv.org/abs/2503.05854

Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week. "...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"

@carbonbrief.org lists our December paper among the most featured 2024 papers, current score 2,644 - top of the charts for @altmetric.com mentions on @bsky.app 🤯 📈 www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the... 🔓A free-access reprint link to our paper can be found on Helges website www.awi.de/en/about-us/...

Saying my first hello to BlueSky, and hoping it is a saner place than what the other site has unfortunately become.

Despite the recent El Niño episode being weaker than previous ones, we have seen record global sea surface temperatures in the last two years. Read the analysis in the Global Climate Highlights 2024: bit.ly/40kQpcz

This is the description of our km-scale coupled climate model configuration. A lot of details in a thread from @trackow.bsky.social 🧪

Our article is out in @eurogeosciences.bsky.social's GMD journal, on global multi-year kilometre-scale modelling with @ecmwf.bsky.social’s IFS coupled to FESOM2.5 (finer than 5km). See the paper here: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... This is what we found: (🧵1/n)

The Global Climate Highlights 2024 report is now online. Delve in the analysis and access all the charts, information, and data on temperature, sea ice, precipitation, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Explore the data that defined 2024: https://bit.ly/40kQpcz #C3S #GCH2024

@nature.com examines whether the temperature spike is a blip or an enduring trend. On our @science.org study (doi.org/10.1126/scie...) - comments from @andrewgettelman.bsky.social, @hausfath.bsky.social @berkeleyearth.org & @metoffice.bsky.social's Y. Tsushima / data @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social :

🌡️ 2024 saw repeated record breaking temperatures. 📈On 10 January, we're releasing the Global Climate Highlights, covering the key data from the 2024 climate, including temperature, sea ice and greenhouse gas d#CopernicusClimatelimate

For the first time ever all the producers of operational surface temperature products will coordinate their 2024 releases on Jan 10. This includes NASA, NOAA, Hadley Centre/CRU, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus (ECMWF).

Last year was really hot, and no one knows why. New paper says it's because there were fewer sun-blocking clouds, and no one knows why www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Fair enough! There certainly seems to be an acceleration in global warming & its impacts, with scientists still trying to allocate temp. increases to various possible drivers, including some, such as a reduction in reflective cloud cover, that may involve feedback www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Interesting paper suggests a reason for why 2023 was so exceptionally warm - less low-level cloud-cover: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/.... These results may be related to our own papers which also find that daily precipitation has fallen on a shrinking golbal surface area: doi.org/10.1038/s416...

“While X currently dominates altmetric mentions, the observed growth on Bluesky suggests a potential shift in the future, underscoring its emerging role in academic dissemination and the challenges of adapting scholarly communication metrics across evolving platforms” #AcademicSky #Altmetrics

The ocean was unusually hot in 2023 👇 We found that this caused an unexpected decline of the ocean carbon sink, primarily driven by anomalous outgassing of CO₂ in the northern hemisphere extratropics. ▶️ doi.org/10.21203/rs.... Feedback on our preprint is more than welcome! 🌊

Some new climate news: In 2023, temperatures neared 1.5o >pre-industrial times. Research out this week says cause is loss of albedo. Albedo? you ask? Think of wearing white while in the sun (cooler) compared with black (hotter). Earth has lost more of its white coat. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Sea ice meets ocean eddies, part II! Folllowing @oceanographer.bsky.social's idea I used the data from my simulation (still #FESOM2 but 10km this time) to explore the flames of the frozen ocean. 🧊 🔥

We have a new paper out in @science.org today, led by Helge Goessling from #AWI: The recent global temperature surge in 2023 was intensified by a record-low planetary #albedo 👉 doi.org/10.1126/scie... @thomasjung.bsky.social @ecmwf.bsky.social This is what we found (🧵1/8)

Our work will also be (remotely) presented at #AGU24 ! agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me... Dec 11, 01:30pm - 02:30pm (Central Time) Dec 12, 07:30am - 08:30am (Central Time)