By linking Antarctic sea ice, cloud cover, deep ocean temperatures, and global warming, our new study led by @linusvogt.bsky.social finds that ocean heat uptake and thermal sea level rise by 2100 could be 3–14% higher, and global surface warming 3–7% greater than previously thought👇

And the associated press release for the highlight paper by Earth System Dynamics: www.egu.eu/news/1505/an...

🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics! We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean. This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends. 🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

And of course, I forgot the wave 🌊 to add it to the oceanography feed. So here is the post about this paper, which was published today, and highlights how the deep ocean impacts future atmospheric and ocean warming. We also show that future warming might be underestimated by past studies!

Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper: esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

It's scary how fast the earth is warming. For a long time, the 🌊 ocean surface was warming at a slower 🐌 rate but the warming rate appears to have caught up 🐇. ➡️ In our study about the jump in SSTs, we also estimated a 0.27°C per decade warming of global SSTs (www.nature.com/articles/s41...)

Informative and interesting news feature in @nature.com about the AMOC & large existing uncertainties about its past & future by @timkalvelage.bsky.social who accompanied oceanographer Kjetil Våge from @bjerknes.uib.no on the Norwegian ice-breaker RV Kronprins Haakon. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Updated Climate Visuals (1) Warming stripes for atmosphere and ocean (2) Climate indicators (adding land humidity for 2024) (3) UK climate indicators (adding some 2024 data) ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...

We explained what caused the unusual winds (persistence of NAO- conditions and blocking syste over the British Isles) and showed also that the key factor that boosted this event is the long-term stratification which is linked to anthropogenic activities.

If I can add something. Here we demonstrate that NATL warming was due to natural variability. The event was excepted and in line with climate projections (return period around 10 years). The processes are well known and we can explain it. www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Important new article in @nature.com: "...the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend." #TruthIsBadEnough (h/t @flowinguphill.bsky.social)

One thing that really bothered me about this discussion was the number of speakers who insisted that the gov attacks on US science are "unprecedented". They're not. Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Iran, Turkey & more all purged their academy. Surely learning from that history is essential. #EGU25

Much of the debate we've seen so far has posed Trump's attacks on science as an American problem - but it's not. It's a global problem. The stark reality is that US research underpins much of the world's science - and it's not just money. /1 www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05...

🧵 There’s been ongoing debate about the AMOC and what models really say about its collapse risk this century and beyond. Here’s a short thread responding to Stefan Rahmstorf’s recent comments on Science in Action (BBC) 🌊

Let's use bgcArgo floats to evaluat ocean biogeochemistry models! Simone Le Chevere: Evaluation of the interior ocean ventilation of biogeochemical tracers in a global ocean model using observation-based metrics Thursday, 16:48–16:58, Room 1.34 #EGU25 @awi.de @erc.europa.eu #OceanPeak

#EGU25 🌊 Come have a chat now and before 4pm at X4.37, I have cookies! 🗣Additionally I now have a last-minute talk at 17:43 today in room 1.34 in the same session

It appears that there have unfortunately been some misunderstandings about our recent paper about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (www.nature.com/articles/s41...) at #EGU25. I have tried to clarify these here: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Yesterday, I received the Ocean Science Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award at #EGU25. I am very grateful for this recognition about my work on the ocean carbon cycle, ocean biogeochemistry, earth system modeling, ocean-climate interactions, climate projections, and physical oceanography.

🌊 Great medal and award lecture at #EGU25! Congrats to @tatianailyina.bsky.social for receiving the Fridtjof Nansen Medal and @polarocean.bsky.social for the Outstanding ECS Award for their outstanding work in oceanography👏 Truly great scientists! Check out the interviews: bit.ly/3ScAwQp @egu.eu

Our Union Symposium at #EGU25 @egu.eu was moving, intense, but hopefully also empowering. it is clear that there is a lot to do, but as a community we can start to change things.

At #EGU25, I gave an interview with respect to the Ocean Sciences @egu.eu #EarlyCareer Award. It is about my past, present and future science and also being a parent in academia! If you want to hear more, please come to my medal lecture tomorrow: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

Attending #EGU @egu.eu & care about mental health & diversity in academia? Join our Union Symposium Monday, 16:15–18:00 in Room E1. Co-organized with @polarocean.bsky.social @geocarolina.bsky.social Sabine Hörnig and Anita Di Chiara. Read more on @lucialayr.bsky.social blog post @egubg.bsky.social

Moreover, this is part of a broader framework (see @polarocean.bsky.social 's publi) in which the mutual responses of internal variability and long-term trends allow such events to occur. The study of extremes also raises the question of impacts, adaptation & anticipation tinyurl.com/2mstn48a 12/14

🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime? We attempted to answer these questions in this study: rdcu.be/eh0e8 1/14

Harvard has set an example for other higher-ed institutions - rejecting an unlawful and ham-handed attempt to stifle academic freedom, while taking steps to make sure students can benefit from an environment of intellectual inquiry, rigorous debate and mutual respect. Let’s hope others follow suit.

Does the ocean warm when the AMOC weakens? 🌊 Our new ice-core noble-gas data say it does, at least during the last four deglaciations. A warmer ocean stores a lot of energy but also expands and has lower solubility, which has implications for CO2, sea level, and climate. doi.org/10.1029/2024...

A new estimate of the composite model-based estimate of the annually averaged ocean carbon sink. 🌊 This composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.

"Today it’s university faculty, immigrants and civil servants on the enemies list. Tomorrow, it could be you. Anyone who challenges power can be transformed into a threat with frightening speed. Just ask the Jan. 6 Capitol Police" - @andrewdessler.com www.statesman.com/story/opinio...

A detailed interview about our recent study in @nature.com about the sudden rise in sea surface temperature (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). The interview is in German! Thank you @kathrinkuehn.bsky.social and @deutschlandfunk.de.web.brid.gy

Erwärmt sich die Erde schneller als erwartet? Inwiefern greifen die Klimamodelle noch? Eine neue Nature-Studie liefert erste Antworten, am Beispiel der Rekord-Ozeantemperaturen. Genauer wissen werden wir es ab Herbst - Interview mit @polarocean.bsky.social www.deutschlandfunk.de/rekord-ozean... 1/

Can climate models reproduce observed trends? The answer can be challenging. Our new review paper in Science Advances led by Isla Simpson and Tiffany Shaw @drshaw.bsky.social discusses challenges and ways forward in confronting climate models and observations. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

The large increase in sea surface temperatures in 2023-24 was anomalous, but not completely unexpected when applying climate models, according to research in Nature. https://go.nature.com/3R5Hmqk 🧪 🌊

Yep. Recent warming records are not unexpected and fall within the expectations of climate models.

Nature research paper: Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected https://go.nature.com/4bLHLYx

🚨 🌊 Wonderful work by Jens et al on the 2023-2024 record of SST which shows that we were not in « uncharted territory » and that climate models are able to model such jump. However this record is exceptional and impossible by climate change. More to come soon

2023-2024 jump in ocean surface temperatures : rare but not unexpected. Global climate models successfully simulate such record-shattering jumps. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Key takeaways from our study on the record-breaking global sea surface temperature jump in 2023-24: • A rare 1-in-512-year event • Only possible due to human-caused global warming • Climate models capture it—no signs of unexpected climate change More details below 👇

Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊 Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇

🚨**Job advert** 🚨 We are hiring a seagoing technician in Hamburg! Interested in going to sea, handling instrumentation (ship-based, moored, glider) and logistics of research-travel to remote places? See the advert - contact me with any questions. Deadline 4 April. eleanorfrajka.com/post/2025-03...

👏👏👏 EGU celebrates the diversity of people needed to create truly outstanding science www.egu.eu/news/1259/eg...

📢 Postdoc Opportunity: Ocean Tipping Points & Impacts! We're hiring a postdoc in my group at the University of Bern, Switzerland, to study ocean tipping points and their impacts. The position is part of HEurope project TipESM (@tipesm.bsky.social). Feel free to reach out with any questions. 🌊

Less anthropogenic C uptake by the ocean and other interesting results when the role of ocean biology in the carbon cycle is addressed using fully coupled land-ocean-atmosphere simulations 🌊 @oceanrics.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Against the odds: 12 women who beat bias to succeed in science www.nature.com/articles/d41...

This is really sad news. NOAA GFDL is one of the world's leading climate modeling centers, home to exceptional scientists. If anyone directly affected needs support, I’m happy to help. www.science.org/content/arti...

Some people say, "Alongside rapid and drastic decarbonization, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be needed to meet climate goals." I say no! Unless we decarbonize drastically, CDR will be useless. So we say, "AFTER rapid and drastic decarbonization, CDR will be needed to meet climate goals."

There’s growing concern that we may (temporarily) overshoot the #ParisAgreement’s 1.5°C target. But what does this mean for marine life in the long run? Until now, we’ve had limited understanding of how stabilization & overshoot scenarios impact marine species🧵👇🌊 bg.copernicus.org/articles/22/...

🌊 Today in @nature.com: Is the AMOC on the brink of collapse? Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨 We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean "heat engine" running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise… tinyurl.com/yt6u4e7d Let’s explore 🧪👇

A Pacific MOC (PMOC) will develop in the future to counterbalance the AMOC weakening. However, the sinking associated with the PMOC is not strong enough to completely compensate for the upwelling in the Southern Ocean; thus, the AMOC will not collapse: 🌊🥼❄️ www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I receive numerous requests from journalists regarding the current situation with the Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change. I am not involved in the work of the IPCC for the 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7). 1/...

Thinking of doing a PhD or postdoc? #1 Tip: Find a good supervisor. Do some research on your supervisor before you start doing research with your supervisor. This will be the most important decision in your whole PhD or postdoc. #PhDchat #PhDforum #ECRchat #postdoc #MRes