"to those who will not have the benefit of two billion years' accumulated energy reserves" David MacKay Dedication of his book, Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air

"this one reviewer dragged it out for 18 months before the article was rejected. It is very hard to get work published that critiques the mainstream" We experienced our fair share of toxic reviews. Those publishing their unsubstantiated review on social media on the day publication are the worst.

In a functioning society, this would have been front page news everywhere. In our society, this didn't make the fine print. As @georgemonbiot.bsky.social pointed out once, it's quite depressing to check the headlines when you know what the real headline should be...

September was close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial While this is among the least warmed months and the Tropical Pacific Ocean is relatively cool. This indicates a global warming rate of about 0.4°C/decade. A warming rate increase of >0.2°C/dec. In line with a Global Aerosol Termination Shock.

"High profile statistics [e.g. drawing conclusions on the average of all IPCC model outputs] are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics." Hear, hear!

Tipping Point from the Stable Climate at ~280 ppm CO₂ (Holocene, during past 10,000 years) to a Stable Hothouse Climate at 560 ppm CO₂. We are already at 560 ppm CO₂ equivalent and will likely (and pass) 560 ppm CO₂ later this century. Simplified graph, adapted from @knmi.nl.

Yikes!

We used to throw this one around back in the day... He uses statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination.

A statistician drowning in a river that's, on average, one meter deep is bad enough. What's worse is them telling others that the chance of them drowning is negligible.

"It's has always concerned me that our use of the word 'conservative' has the opposite meaning in insurance to its meaning in climate science." Trevor Maynard youtu.be/-zvAIuYOzU8

Starting soon! Sunday 9/28 at 10am PT: "+3ºC by 2050?!" with hosts Dan Miller & @leonsimons.bsky.social. On German Meteorological Society and Physical Society warning. #GlobalWarming #ClimateChange

+3°C by 2050?! Tomorrow on Climate Chat we will discuss that we could face +3°C of global warming and/or 4 billion climate deaths. Please tune in and share. See the time in your region in the link below and subscribe and hit 🔔 to get a notification when we go live. youtube.com/live/TmZbwLC...

The fact that in our lifetimes, global temperatures could reach higher than ever over the past 3,000,000 years is hard to comprehend. The last glacial maximum, when sea levels were 134 m lower than today, was only 23,000 years ago. Figure from the latest IPCC report (AR6 WG1, TS)

'We therefore call on all political actors in Germany to discuss the withdrawal from low-lying coastal regions on the North and Baltic Seas.' [Living in the coastal region of the North Sea with my family, this hits hard] 5/8

3°C of global warming by 2050 could lead to >4 billion deaths. No one would put their family on an airplane that has a 5% (or 0.005%) chance of crashing. While most are complacently contributing to the destruction of our global life support system. bsky.app/profile/ghos...

Finally, a trace of humanity, responsibility and accountability in action. Thank you for sharing, @zoeatshine.bsky.social www.linkedin.com/posts/zblsvc...

CO₂ emissions increasing or decreasing a few percent won't impact the rate of warming over the next 25 years much. That's mainly driven by aerosols and (to a lesser extent) methane, which both have a much shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO₂ (aerosols only days) On China: bsky.app/profile/glen...

BREAKING 🌍🌡📈 The German Meteorological Society and Physical Society warn today that 3°C of global warming could be reached already by 2050! Global warming is accelerating - A call for decisive action 1/8

Angst voor oorlog? De klimaatcrisis bedreigt pas echt miljarden levens Vier jaar geleden uitte de president van Palau tijdens een klimaattop zijn frustratie over het gebrek aan actie tegen klimaatopwarming: ‘Je kunt ons net zo goed platbombarderen www.demorgen.be/meningen/ang...

Fujiwhara? "In rare occasions, the effect is additive when the hurricanes come together, resulting in one larger storm instead of two smaller ones."

During our Climate Chat, someone asked when we reach +3.0°C with current warming rates. Here I extrapolated the warming rate from 'Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly' by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf (2025 preprint) to up to +4°C (extending their table 1):

800 individual days have been at least 1.5C above the Pre-Industrial baseline Summer 2025 was largely under 1.5C > Will we pass 900 days in 2026? > Will we pass 1000 days by 2027? > Will the Loess 30-yr trend pass 1.5C before 2028? Data: Copernicus ERA5 - Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly

This is a probe. The IDF is dipping its toe in the water. If the public reaction is muted Israel very well may blow up a bunch of these ships for the “crime” of bringing food and medical supplies to starving/suffering children.

Brazilian activist Thiago Avilla reports six explosions on different boats of the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters

True (context is everything)

Thank you!

We don't make viral cat or police chase videos, but do provide free in-depth conversations with world leading climate experts. Please subscribe to Climate Chat. We're almost passing 5,000 🎉 youtube.com/@climatechat

Is anyone still blaming El Niño for this?

Does this help understand today's equinox? The day on which the lengths of day and night across the globe are approximately equal. Because Earth's axis is tilted by ~23.5 degrees, Earth's hemispheres receive an equal amount of irradiation only twice a year:

Climate Chat starts soon. I've uploaded some of the main graphs we will discuss on my Patreon page. Please let us know if you have any questions: www.patreon.com/posts/what-h...

This is what rapidly accelerating warming looks like. Another off the chart datapoint: NOAA Sea Surface Temperature data for the summer 2025. We will discuss this and more on Climate Chat today. See link for time and hit the 🔔 to get a notification when we go live 1/2 youtube.com/live/BNZ_biC...

Sunday 9/21 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: "What the Hell is Going On in the North Pacific?" with hosts Dan Miller & @leonsimons.bsky.social. On YouTube & LinkedIn. #ClimateCrisis #GlobalWarming youtube.com/live/BNZ_biC...

Greta Thunberg and Irish comedian and activist Tadhg Hickey sum it up in 28 seconds

'There are over 20 million Americans suffering from Long COVID and that number still increasing' Credit to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, HSS for taking Long COVID serious and organizing this: www.youtube.com/live/-eorSN8...

I remember being in a meeting with a number of scientists (incl Hansen) to discuss urgent climate risks, about 13 years ago. One attendee was adamant about the stability of the Greenland ice sheet this century. We tried to explain the first principles at play, to little avail.

🌊🌡️📈 The warming rate over the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) the past 25 years was about 1,000% higher than averaged over the preceding 150 years! It's the rate of regional warming and the resulting climate and weather impacts that pose such a threat. 1/

Does reduced sulfur pollution explain the divergence between climate models and observations? Not sure, but it likely explains at least some of it. The current generation of models did not anticipate the marine sulfur regulations, and so will not have included that impact. 7/

The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records. And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected. A short thread 🧵

The killing of court jesters continues until morale improves

When super moderate centrist shows like Kimmel and Colbert are being shut down you know we are chest deep in the fascist broth. What is SNL going to do? The entire foundation of that show for 50 years has been mocking whoever’s President.

This is based on an estimated linear anthropogenic aerosol forcing of -0.5 W/m² from 6,000 years ago to 1750, as presented in 'Global warming in the pipeline', Hansen et al. (2023). Compensating for the increasing GHG forcing over the same period & helping to stabilize the Holocene:

Humanity started to change Earth’s atmosphere about 6,000 year ago! This graph visualizes the total annual greenhouse gas forcings, aerosol forcings and the net effects of both. It also includes NASA CERES satellite observation based Earth's Energy Imbalance and how it changed:

It's even more extreme at more mid latitudes, as initially covered:

It's funny, my wife isn't great at maths, but she excelled at the Pythagorean equations in high school, because she could simply memorize that a²+b²=c² The date is September 16, 2025. 9+16=25 which is equal to 3²+4²=5²

Happy Pythagorean Triple Square Day!

'Fear of war? The climate crisis truly threatens billions of lives' In Volkskrant, Kas Bakx and I wrote about how European security debate ignores the greatest security threat of all. Climate change poses an existential threat, and we'd better address it as such. www.volkskrant.nl/columns-opin...

Climate Chat is now live:

As the Northern Hemisphere summer has ended with global temperatures 'only' +1.3°C above pre-industrial the past three months, anomalies are spiking upwards again. We could see the highest daily anomaly in 8 months soon. September 2025 will be about +1.6°C in the @ecmwf.int ERA dataset 👇 1/2

The alleged shooter of Charlie Kirk is 22 yo Tyler Robinson. Raised with guns. Every time this happens, I hear this Everlast song. I'm glad we were raised with peashooters.

The Limits to growth report to The @clubofrome.org was published in 1972. After Europe's largest gas field (2,740 billion m³!) was discovered in the Netherlands and our coal mines closed. Many found it hard to imagine limits to growth of fossil fuels were real. But here we are: