Peter Sainsbury
@petersainsbury.bsky.social
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📥 159
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Helping investors navigate 'The Currency of Decarbonisation'! 🏭 www.carbonrisk.world
pinned post!
Spread bets: Why "energy transition assets" could drive commodity trading returns
carbonrisk.substack.com/p/spread-bets
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Spread bets
Why "energy transition assets" could drive commodity trading returns
https://carbonrisk.substack.com/p/spread-bets
12 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
David Watson
1 day ago
China's push toward electrification has reduced its oil exposure, meaning its 1.4 billion-barrel reserves provide 120 days of import cushion. Its dominance of clean energy supply chains also gives it growing leverage as hydrocarbon reliability erodes.
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How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance
Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era.
https://buff.ly/BTe7rFB
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Peter Sainsbury
Simon Evans
27 days ago
🤡🤡🤡
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Cap-and-Invest: Europe set to leverage its carbon markets to boost investment in decarbonisation
www.carbonrisk.world/cap-and-inve...
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Cap-and-Invest
Europe set to leverage its carbon markets to boost investment in decarbonisation
https://www.carbonrisk.world/cap-and-invest/
29 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Ember
30 days ago
NEW | New technologies are unlocking the EU’s geothermal potential 🇪🇺 Across the EU, new geothermal tech could access 43GW of deployable geothermal capacity - replacing 42% of ALL coal and gas electricity generation.
ember-energy.org/lat...
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Peter Sainsbury
James Murray
about 1 month ago
Some actual bona fide good news. The domestic clean tech market is absolutely booming and is poised to keep growing.
www.businessgreen.com/news/4525218...
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'An extraordinary signal': UK homes installed renewables every 90 seconds in 2025
Solar panel, heat pump, and battery storage installations grew 34 per cent year-on-year, driven by government funding and new build installations
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4525218/extraordinary-signal-uk-homes-installed-renewables-90-2025
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My article from Monday in which I discuss how hedge funds have had too much of a good thing with commodities. No tree grows to heaven: EUAs caught in cross-commodity liquidation
www.carbonrisk.world/no-tree-grow...
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No tree grows to heaven
EUAs caught in cross-commodity liquidation
https://www.carbonrisk.world/no-tree-grows-to-heaven/
about 1 month ago
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Peter Sainsbury
James Murray
about 1 month ago
£4bn is a rounding error in an economy the size of the UK’s and in return the UK would get a leadership position in booming global industries, enhanced climate resilience and energy security, and multiple co-benefits. It’s a very good deal.
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Peter Sainsbury
Will Jennings📉🗳️
about 1 month ago
Now your turn UK government.
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Adam Vaughan
about 1 month ago
How much will it cost the UK to reach an 87% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040? In a new letter,
@thecccuk.bsky.social
confirms about £4bn a year (£26bn a year of costs minus £22bn a year of savings).
www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/u...
87% by 2040 is a stepping stone to net zero by 2050
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Peter Sainsbury
Richard Delevan
about 1 month ago
Ah yes. That woke IMF. Can't trust anything they say.
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Peter Sainsbury
MingTheMerciless
about 1 month ago
'The Albanese govt could make deep emissions cuts & restructure an ailing federal budget by taxing polluting companies more than $35bn pa for the damage they cause...'
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Sounds fair to me, as does taxing billionaires & ending welfare for the wealthy programs
#auspol
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‘Not radical, it’s fair’: Australian households would receive compensation in proposed ‘polluter pays’ levy scheme
Superpower Institute report fleshes out 2024 call from Labor heavyweight Ross Garnaut to re-embrace carbon pricing 12 years after Tony Abbott axed it
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/29/australia-polluter-pays-levy-fossil-fuels-rod-sims-ross-garnaut-superpower-institute-report?utm_term=697ab113f3169cf5fe503f4f061ab50a&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayAUS&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTAU_email
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Peter Sainsbury
Simon Evans
about 1 month ago
HUGE moment for the EU car market as battery EVs overtake petrol cars for the first time ever But there's no "natural" demand for EVs amirite? Article by
@mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...
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Peter Sainsbury
Richard Delevan
about 2 months ago
Bravo
@ben-cooke.bsky.social
. Brilliant scoop, and hard to imagine a more important one. “This government is hiding the true danger of climate change from the people”. Spooks don’t mess about when they leak.
www.thetimes.com/article/4a1c...
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Peter Sainsbury
Michael Pettis
about 2 months ago
1/2 There is nothing wrong with the world importing EVs from China. If China has a comparative advantage in producing EVs, it should be a net exporter to the rest of the world. That's how global trade works best.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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China Makes Too Many Cars, and the World Is Increasingly OK With It
Concerns about overcapacity were justified. But now, no matter?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-22/china-makes-too-many-cars-and-the-world-is-increasingly-ok-with-it?taid=69722e287707d0000112205a&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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Peter Sainsbury
Leo Hickman
about 2 months ago
As ever, Private Eye sees through the way the usual-suspect media are happy to swallow wholesale and then amplify the BS from Tufton St lobbyists when it comes to net-zero And, as ever,
@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
made all these points the moment the coverage landed
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Peter Sainsbury
James Murray
about 2 months ago
Within hours of Trump's bizarre rant about European 'windmills', new data confirms wind and solar provided more power than fossil fuels in the EU last year, helping to drastically reduce its reliance on costly fossil fuel imports.
www.businessgreen.com/news/4524566...
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Wind and solar generate more power than fossil fuels in Europe for first time
New Ember analysis attributes increase in renewables to 'staggering rise' in solar power
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4524566/wind-solar-generate-power-fossil-fuels-europe
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Peter Sainsbury
Akshat Rathi
about 2 months ago
America, the land that is catching up with developing countries.
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Peter Sainsbury
Eoghan Daltun 🌍
about 2 months ago
All those who wrongly believe that nature collapse might be 'sad', but won't really affect them in any way, badly need to wake up. Nature isn't just 'nice to have'. Planet Earth is only liveable – for *us* too – due to the regulating effects of natural ecosystems.
share.google/NoVLRatfUoH5...
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Biodiversity collapse threatens UK security, intelligence chiefs warn
Ecosystem destruction will increase food shortages, disorder and mass migration, with effects already being felt
https://share.google/NoVLRatfUoH5ZXmdX
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Peter Sainsbury
Ed Zitron
about 2 months ago
Microsoft CEO says AI “risks becoming a speculative bubble unless its use spreads beyond big tech companies and wealthy economies.” Brother you’re the one building this dogshit, we’re three years and hundreds of billions in, how have you not worked it out?
www.ft.com/content/2a29...
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Peter Sainsbury
Stephen Bush
about 2 months ago
Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.
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The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney-doctrine
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Peter Sainsbury
Edward Harrison
about 2 months ago
US households pay 96% off tariffs. “the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last year’s U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%.”
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
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Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs, Study Finds
New research contradicts President Trump’s claim that foreigners are footing the bill.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/americans-are-the-ones-paying-for-tariffs-study-finds-e254ed2e?st=YiDUQN
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Peter Sainsbury
General Boles
about 2 months ago
"Look, I get it, he's mental but what the fuck do you want me to do?" - Labour +45%
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Peter Sainsbury
Akshat Rathi
about 2 months ago
Plenty that is baffling these days, but few things are more baffling than some major auto companies looking at this global trend and deciding NAH, NOT FOR ME
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Peter Sainsbury
about 2 months ago
@gilesyb.bsky.social
this is what the inflection point looks like - chinas emissions will be tanking very soon
e360.yale.edu/digest/china...
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Photos Capture the Breathtaking Scale of China's Wind and Solar Buildout
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/china-renewable-photo-essay
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Poor Elon.
about 2 months ago
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Low oil and LNG prices a huge headwind to greener alternatives (green methanol, batteries, etc). A shame there isn't a global tax on shipping emissions IMO 🤔
about 2 months ago
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€100 carbon draws near: Europe's most important climate policy shrugs off the gloom The median forecast (based on 38 responses) in the
#EUAPredict
2026 competition for the final 2026 EUA settlement price was €96.85.
about 2 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Nat Bullard
about 2 months ago
Do you like charts? Oh yes you do. I've just published hundreds of them, as I do every year.
www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
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Peter Sainsbury
James Murray
about 2 months ago
The actuaries are frankly terrified at our collective failure to understand the true scale of the climate risks the world faces.
www.businessgreen.com/news-analysi...
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'Planetary solvency is threatened': Is financial risk from climate change even greater predicted?
The planet is warming faster than many realise, and actuaries and risk experts are worried global financial markets remain deeply underprepared for the climate impacts that will result
https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4524152/planetary-solvency-threatened-financial-risk-climate-change-predicted
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Peter Sainsbury
Kevin J. Kircher
about 2 months ago
Fine-particulate and ozone air pollution from fossil fuels causes 4-6 million avoidable deaths per year: 7-10% of all deaths worldwide. At an ~$11 million statistical value of life, this is a 44-66 trillion $/yr (38-56% of ~117 T$/yr global GDP) cost that appears nowhere in fossil fuel economics.
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Coal-fired power plants killed at least 460,000 Americans between 1999 and 2020. Remember that as the EPA stops considering the benefits of halting air pollution.
hsph.harvard.edu/news/particu...
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Particulate pollution from coal associated with double the risk of mortality than PM2.5 from other sources | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Exposure to fine particulate air pollutants from coal-fired power plants is associated with a risk of mortality more than double that of exposure to PM2.5 from other sources, according to a new study ...
https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/particulate-pollution-from-coal-associated-with-double-the-risk-of-mortality-than-pm2-5-from-other-sources/
about 2 months ago
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Recoupling? Rhodium estimates that US GHG emissions grew faster than the economy in 2025, breaking a 3-year trend of economic growth outpacing emissions growth.
rhg.com/research/us-...
about 2 months ago
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Trading hazes A new article from me on how environmental markets are being leveraged in India to tackle PM2.5 and sulphur dioxide emissions.
www.carbonrisk.world/trad/
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Trading hazes
Commuters in New Delhi, the capital of India, coughed and spluttered through the worst air pollution in nearly a decade this winter, the smog hanging deeply over the crowded city streets. The city's ...
https://www.carbonrisk.world/trad/
about 2 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Emily Atkin
about 2 months ago
Trump has been promoting air pollution denial since at least 2017. It’s taken different forms over the years, but the goal was always the same: to stop regulatory agencies from treating air pollution as a public health problem. The Trump EPA has now reached that endpoint.
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Air pollution denial is now EPA policy
Dirty air may kill people, but Trump's EPA won't count the bodies.
https://heated.world/p/air-pollution-denial-is-now-epa-policy
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Peter Sainsbury
Jan Rosenow
about 2 months ago
China is now the leading clean energy powerhouse with the West falling behind. The transition is inevitable; the key question is where and how fast it happens. I look forward to discussing this in Davos next week at the World Economic Forum, facilitating a live-streamed session on electrostates.
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Peter Sainsbury
Gernot Wagner
about 2 months ago
Narrator: That's not how benefit-cost analysis works.
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Peter Sainsbury
Lauri Myllyvirta
about 2 months ago
NEW: Coal-fired power generation fell in both China and India in 2025, for the first time since 1973. The drop came after record clean energy additions in both countries, and was the first time that clean energy was a major driver of falling coal power use.
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Peter Sainsbury
Victoria
2 months ago
The White House's withdrawal from 66 different international bodies will come back to hurt the US on climate and other issues,
@markgongloff.bsky.social
says
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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The White House Is Making a $7 Trillion Problem Worse
At the end of 2025, a year when the Trump administration relentlessly jackhammered an architecture of environmental protection and climate action that took decades to build, it was tempting to hope th...
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-08/trump-is-making-a-7-trillion-climate-change-problem-worse?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2Nzk5MzQxNywiZXhwIjoxNzY4NTk4MjE3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUOEsyT1hLR1pBSzMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJFM0UxQUQyNDNBRTg0RENFQURFMzVEOEZCNkFENEZCNyJ9.nmzX_mAcWOMn6bQ6TlR8K27KadLsLtROhZeBOP3d1S4
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Peter Sainsbury
Gernot Wagner
2 months ago
Nobody ever said the death throes of the fossil age would be pretty or peaceful
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Peter Sainsbury
Zeke Hausfather
2 months ago
The US stands alone in dismissing the problem of climate change.
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Peter Sainsbury
Otto English
2 months ago
Make this go viral. Labour MP Louise Haigh.
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WRI Climate
2 months ago
📢 Yesterday, President Trump signed a presidential memorandum directing the United States to withdraw from 66 international organizations and treaties, including the UNFCCC and the IPCC. Read the full statement from David Widawsky, Director WRI US:
bit.ly/3YrmIVx
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Peter Sainsbury
Leo Hickman
2 months ago
NEW by
@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
for
@carbonbrief.org
Analysis: World’s biggest historic polluter – the US – is pulling out of UN climate treaty "the largest contribution to the Earth’s warming climate by far"
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wor...
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Peter Sainsbury
Robinson Meyer
2 months ago
The US is withdrawing from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the treaty that has governed international climate diplomacy since 1992, per the AP:
heatmap.news/sparks/us-wi...
George H.W. Bush first signed the pact, and the Senate unanimously ratified. US has been a member since then.
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The U.S. Will Exit UN’s Framework Climate Treaty, According to Reports
The move would mark a significant escalation in Trump’s hostility toward climate diplomacy.
https://heatmap.news/sparks/us-withdraws-unfccc
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Peter Sainsbury
Democrats
2 months ago
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” —George Orwell, 1984
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The annual
#EUAPredict
forecasting competition has an average error rate of 23%. That's much better than pro carbon analysts (35.5%). Have you got a view as to where the EU carbon price could be at the end of 2026? Entries close 1700 GMT
www.carbonrisk.world/euapredict-2...
2 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Private Eye Magazine
2 months ago
Venezuela: How it unfolded From the new Private Eye, in shops now.
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There’s just a few days left to enter
#EUAPredict
2026! It's your chance to forecast the EU carbon price at the end of December. Here’s all the details you need to know
www.carbonrisk.world/euapredict-2...
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#EUAPredict 2026
What's your forecast for the EU carbon price in 2026?
https://www.carbonrisk.world/euapredict-2026/
2 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Jan Rosenow
2 months ago
I have been saying this for some time to students seeking career advice: the energy sector is one of the most exciting places to work with a huge transformation taking place right now. Electrification is a game changer and means a redesign of our energy system as we know it.
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Peter Sainsbury
Alex Turnbull
2 months ago
Venezuela has pretty great monazite / rare earth deposits so yeah that might be part of this
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