Peter Sainsbury
@petersainsbury.bsky.social
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📥 154
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Helping investors navigate 'The Currency of Decarbonisation'! 🏭 www.carbonrisk.world
pinned post!
Spread bets: Why "energy transition assets" could drive commodity trading returns
carbonrisk.substack.com/p/spread-bets
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Spread bets
Why "energy transition assets" could drive commodity trading returns
https://carbonrisk.substack.com/p/spread-bets
10 months ago
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There’s just a few days left to enter
#EUAPredict
2026! It's your chance to forecast the EU carbon price at the end of December. Here’s all the details you need to know
www.carbonrisk.world/euapredict-2...
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#EUAPredict 2026
What's your forecast for the EU carbon price in 2026?
https://www.carbonrisk.world/euapredict-2026/
about 6 hours ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Jan Rosenow
about 10 hours ago
I have been saying this for some time to students seeking career advice: the energy sector is one of the most exciting places to work with a huge transformation taking place right now. Electrification is a game changer and means a redesign of our energy system as we know it.
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Peter Sainsbury
Alex Turnbull
3 days ago
Venezuela has pretty great monazite / rare earth deposits so yeah that might be part of this
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Peter Sainsbury
Cargo Bike Ben
5 days ago
In news that should surprise no one…
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280 million e-bikes are slashing oil demand far more than electric vehicles
E-bikes and scooters displace 4x as much demand for oil as all of the EVs in the world.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/11/280-million-e-bikes-are-slashing-oil-demand-far-more-than-electric-vehicles/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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Happy CBAM day for those that celebrate 🎉
5 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Climate Home News
5 days ago
Climate change made 17 of the 22 major extreme weather events analysed in 2025 more severe or more likely.
buff.ly/vnqEjXt
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Peter Sainsbury
The Economist
7 days ago
The fires that tore across Los Angeles County nearly a year ago killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 buildings. Angelenos are still learning the full extent of the damage
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Los Angeles after the flames
A year after the city burned, the recovery has just begun
https://econ.st/4qjr8u1
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Jan Rosenow
7 days ago
2025 has been a historic year for clean energy in UK, with renewable project approvals reaching a record-high 45 GW — nearly double of 2024. This surge was driven by an exceptional rise in battery storage capacity, which almost doubled to 28.6 GW, alongside strong growth in offshore wind & solar.
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The nuclear mirage: Why SMRs won’t save nuclear power
www.theenergymix.com/the-nuclear-...
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#Encore: The Nuclear Mirage: Why Small Modular Reactors Won’t Save Nuclear Power
Don’t believe the hype around SMRs, says 50-year industry veteran Arnie Gundersen, calling them an expensive distraction from real climate solutions.
https://www.theenergymix.com/the-nuclear-mirage-why-small-modular-reactors-wont-save-nuclear-power-2/
10 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Sarah T. Fischell
15 days ago
Looks like the initial data on NYC congestion pricing say it’s working. 👏 🔌💡
#TalkAboutClimate
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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New York's Congestion Pricing Is Working. Five Charts Show How
Nearly a year ago, New York City embarked on a controversial program to toll drivers entering some of Manhattan’s busiest streets. The goal of the congestion pricing plan, the first of its kind in the...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-22/nyc-congestion-pricing-is-the-controversial-program-working?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2NjQyMzU0NSwiZXhwIjoxNzY3MDI4MzQ1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUN08zVzlLR0NURkswMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4RTRBQTgxRDkzMTA0QTk2QTE2NjAzQUMyOTg0NUE1RiJ9.6vfG4Qa5Bon5wBcYer97_l5_CQIH9hzUqD5CvxhHk5k
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The hard politics of climate overshoot: Net zero is difficult enough — but an age of net negative emissions goals would be far tougher
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The hard politics of climate overshoot
Net zero is difficult enough — but an age of net negative emissions goals would be far tougher
https://www.ft.com/content/45a3c78b-adf6-4bde-804d-6a7b8a549e7e
17 days ago
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Mark Carney's approach to climate policy shouldn't be dismissed as a race to the bottom. A strong industrial carbon pricing mechanism will reduce emissions in the most efficient way possible, and at the lowest cost to households and businesses.
www.carbonrisk.world/a-statement-...
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A statement of intent
What Mark Carney's 'variable geometry' approach reveals about the future of carbon pricing in Canada
https://www.carbonrisk.world/a-statement-of-intent/
17 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Dean O’Gorman
18 days ago
Important discussion paper dropped today from ECCC on how to strengthen carbon markets in Canada, as part of the 2026 federal pricing benchmark review of federal and provincial industrial carbon pricing systems. Comments due by Jan. 30.
www.canada.ca/en/environme...
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Discussion paper: Driving effective carbon markets in Canada - Canada.ca
Accompanying document for the consultation on driving effective carbon markets in Canada
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/transparency/consultations/comment-driving-effective-carbon-markets/discussion-paper.html
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Peter Sainsbury
Paul Lehmann
21 days ago
In often hear people saying that command-and-control policies should be preferred over carbon pricing because they signal a stronger political commitment. But apparently, command-and-control policies can be reversed as well. So maybe not the strongest argument in their favor/against carbon pricing.
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EU waters down plans to end new petrol and diesel car sales by 2035
Carmakers, particularly in Germany, have lobbied heavily for concessions to the planned rules.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crk78y7k8ezo
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The New Zealand carbon price has slumped by around one-third since early November to ~NZ$37 per tonne CO2 (€18) after the government shattered market confidence in its commitment to climate policy.
www.carbonrisk.world/new-zealands...
18 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Diane Coyle
18 days ago
This by the excellent
@jburnmurdoch.ft.com
confirms my view that political trends are being driven by the halting of the upward economic conveyor belt - striking charts:
www.ft.com/content/30a4...
Welcome to the age of zero-sum politics
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Welcome to the age of zero-sum politics
A stalled economic conveyor belt is behind the rise of anti-system, anti-growth parties on both the right and left
https://www.ft.com/content/30a49ab7-285b-4641-89f8-7375fc560ab9?shareType=nongift
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Peter Sainsbury
Cooper Lund
19 days ago
Things are going great over at X, The Everything App
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Peter Sainsbury
Dr Tom Harris
19 days ago
The US has already lost 12% of its current income due to climate change. Most studies project future losses, but new research from the University of Arizona has calculated the costs to date.
news.arizona.edu/news/climate...
#climatechange
#economy
#income
#impacts
#supplychains
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Climate change's hidden price tag: a drop in our income
By linking decades of weather and income data, University of Arizona economist Derek Lemoine shows how routine temperature shifts have already become an economic force.
https://news.arizona.edu/news/climate-changes-hidden-price-tag-drop-our-income
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Peter Sainsbury
Science Magazine
19 days ago
Science has named the seemingly unstoppable growth of renewable energy worldwide as the 2025 Breakthrough of the Year. Learn more about this year's
#BOTY
and other big advances in science:
https://scim.ag/493Tpgx
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Climate change is already imposing costs on U.S. households ranging from $220 to $570 per year, according to a recent report. Households direct and indirect insurance costs account for ~50-60% of the impact from climate change.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
19 days ago
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The climate tech rollercoaster - SVB (April 2025)
www.svb.com/globalassets...
19 days ago
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What if we're on a much worse climate trajectory than we realise? James Hansen argues that air pollution increased albedo by making clouds brighter, masking some of the global warming that we ought to have experienced due to rising GHG emissions.
www.onepercentbrighter.com/p/if-james-h...
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What if we're on a much worse climate trajectory than we realize?
What if we really are heading for a +5 degree hotter world after all?
https://www.onepercentbrighter.com/p/if-james-hansen-is-right
19 days ago
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I've been writing about carbon markets for a little over four years now. This year I decided to write a roundup of the most important themes covered this past year on Carbon Risk, as well as some of the things to watch out for as we move into 2026.
www.carbonrisk.world/carbon-risk-...
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Carbon Risk 2025 year in review
A look back at year four of the Carbon Risk newsletter
https://www.carbonrisk.world/carbon-risk-2025-year-in-review/
20 days ago
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Methane is thought to be responsible for nearly half of net global warming to date. Tackling this one super-pollutant is the fastest way to slow down the rate of warming in coming decades. Yet finance for methane abatement measures represented less than 2% of total climate finance flows.
20 days ago
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The ‘sailing ship’ effect – also known as the ‘last gasp effect of obsolescent technologies’ - occurs when competition from new technologies stimulates improvements in incumbent technologies and the firms that produce them.
www.carbonrisk.world/the-sailing-...
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The 'sailing ship' effect and the energy transition
The ‘sailing ship’ effect – also known as the ‘last gasp effect of obsolescent technologies’ - occurs where competition from new technologies stimulates improvements in incumbent technologies and the ...
https://www.carbonrisk.world/the-sailing-ship-effect-and-the-energy/
20 days ago
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In a survey of more than 900 institutional investors, Morgan Stanley found that around 80% expect to increase allocations to sustainable investments in the next two years.
www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/...
20 days ago
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I wish I read this book 7 years ago when it was published. Scarily prescient.
20 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Ember
20 days ago
As the year draws to a close, Ember presents some of the biggest clean energy shifts of 2025 and what they mean for the coming year 🗓️ 🧵1/8
ember-energy.org/lat...
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Peter Sainsbury
Caroline O'Doherty
20 days ago
Ireland’s faltering switch to clean energy laid bare by increase in oil and gas use
www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
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Ireland’s faltering switch to clean energy laid bare by increase in oil and gas use
Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland says energy emissions fell slightly in 2024 but progress not sufficient
https://www.irishtimes.com/environment/climate-crisis/2025/12/17/irelands-faltering-switch-to-clean-energy-laid-bare-by-increase-in-oil-and-gas-use/
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Peter Sainsbury
The Economist
20 days ago
As the first climate migrants from Tuvalu settle into their new Australian homes in 2026, the tiny island will face an unintended consequence: accelerating brain drain
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The world’s first climate refugees will arrive in Australia in 2026
The Falepili Union treaty allows 280 people from Tuvalu to migrate annually. The treaty could redefine sovereignty
https://econ.st/4q63Ffc
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Carbon pricing has come under increasing pressure amid affordability concerns, state overreach, and opposition parties exploiting the issue. But carbon pricing doesn't have to be taxing 💶 A new article from me on how governments can respond.
www.carbonrisk.world/carbon-prici...
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Carbon pricing doesn't have to be taxing
Carbon pricing has come under increasing pressure over the past 12 months amid affordability concerns, allegations of state overreach, and opposition parties using the issue to drive a wedge between v...
https://www.carbonrisk.world/carbon-pricing-doesnt-have-to-be-taxing/
20 days ago
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Amidst the rollback in climate reporting, removal of EV mandates, and other environmental policy reversals its good to see the workhorse of the EU's climate policy doing its job. EU carbon price heading back towards €100 per tonne CO2.
20 days ago
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Peter Sainsbury
James Murray
23 days ago
A Sunday afternoon read about how on its 10th anniversary the Paris Agreement has delivered real progress and still matters more than ever, even as it comes under fierce attack from some of the most morally bankrupt individuals imaginable.
www.businessgreen.com/blog-post/45...
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We'll always have Paris
As the Paris Agreement marks its 10th anniversary it is under greater threat than ever before, but it has already helped lay the foundations for a net zero economy
https://www.businessgreen.com/blog-post/4523139/well-always-have-paris
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Peter Sainsbury
James Murray
29 days ago
Big new study shows how a renewables-dominated power system can slash costs across Europe, and yes it does include the cost of grid upgrades, energy storage, and back up generation.
www.businessgreen.com/news-analysi...
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'There is no upside to delay': How a renewables-based energy system could save Europe $1.6tr
New study reveals how generation mixes with high shares of renewables will save money for consumers and businesses, even when grid upgrades, energy storage, and back-up power costs are considered
https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4522914/upside-delay-renewables-energy-systems-save-europe-usd16tr
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Peter Sainsbury
Adam Bienkov
about 2 months ago
We must copy Denmark Social Democrats' hardline anti-asylum measures in order to win back voters' trust, says Shabana Mahmood. Meanwhile in Denmark:
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Ember
about 2 months ago
Coal mines emitted ~40mn tonnes of
#methane
every year, EXCEEDING the global gas sector according to
@iea.org
Tackling CMM is one of the fastest and cheapest ways to slow global heating 🌡️⏳ Yet, CMM emissions could be much more than we think, urgently needing better reporting 📝🚨
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Peter Sainsbury
Patrick Reynolds for a greater Auckland
3 months ago
Not nearly enough is made of the incredibly impressive feat Indian Railways has made to electrify almost 100% of its 135,000km of track, while also growing renewable sourcing. Huge:
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/ind...
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Indian Railways to achieve net zero targets in 2025 itself - 5 years ahead of 2030 goal - Times of India
India Business News: Indian Railways is set to achieve net-zero targets by year-end, surpassing its 2030 goal through extensive electrification. Aiming for 95% electric tr
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-railways-to-achieve-net-zero-targets-in-2025-itself-5-years-ahead-of-2030-goal/articleshow/121481828.cms
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Peter Sainsbury
Alex Andreou
3 months ago
How is this not front page news?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Reform UK's ex-Wales leader Nathan Gill admits pro-Russia bribery
Nathan Gill admits eight charges of bribery while being a Member of the European Parliament.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6xwy015ngo
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Peter Sainsbury
Lauri Myllyvirta
4 months ago
As China prepares to publish its emission reduction targets for 2035, likely the most significant climate announcement of the year, here is a chart to compare the target to what needs to happen under different global climate targets.
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Peter Sainsbury
Kees van der Leun
4 months ago
To do for Linkedin users.
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California strikes back: Decision to reauthorise Cap-and-Invest Program an inflexion point for carbon markets in North America
www.carbonrisk.world/california-s...
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California strikes back
Decision to reauthorise Cap-and-Invest Program an inflexion point for carbon markets in North America
https://www.carbonrisk.world/california-strikes-back/
4 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Robinson Meyer
4 months ago
I wrote about the large number of incorrect or just plain weird claims from Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s X account. It’s starting to influence how actual energy professionals perceive the Department of Energy, I argue:
heatmap.news/politics/chr...
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Chris Wright’s Twitter Is Destroying His Credibility
You might even call the Energy Secretary ... Chris Wrong.
https://heatmap.news/politics/chris-wright-twitter
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Could transition credits solve Asia's coal dilemma?
www.carbonrisk.world/could-transi...
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Could transition credits solve Asia's coal dilemma?
Coal-fired power generation capacity accounts for around 40% of Asia's energy mix, well above the global average of 25%. Although the share has dropped by 10 percentage points since 2010 (in part due ...
https://www.carbonrisk.world/could-transition-credits-solve-asias-coal-dilemma/
4 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
David Weiskopf believes in you
4 months ago
hey
@jenka.bsky.social
add a skeleton here at some point
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Peter Sainsbury
acemaxx analytics
4 months ago
#FX
US weakness could support
#commodities
- chart
#MorganStanley
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Peter Sainsbury
Jay Van Bavel, PhD
4 months ago
Extreme views are heavily over-represented on social media Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism
www.ft.com/content/9251...
via
@jburnmurdoch.ft.com
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Peter Sainsbury
Jan Rosenow
4 months ago
Betting on hydrogen as the key solution for decarbonising industry looks increasingly like a very bad idea. Yes we will need to replace grey and black hydrogen used as feedstock with clean hydrogen but as a fuel the economics look terrible.
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Peter Sainsbury
Kimberly Clausing
4 months ago
Nice piece on the possibility of a coalition of the willing around heavy-industry carbon pricing, with quotes from my coauthor
@cwolfram.bsky.social
, a leader in this conversation. Talk of a global carbon pricing scheme grows louder ahead of COP30
www.ft.com/content/21b8...
via
@financialtimes.com
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Talk of a global carbon pricing scheme grows louder ahead of COP30
Brazil wants to use the presidency to push for an international framework
https://www.ft.com/content/21b8689f-a1f1-4e89-83c3-841f6d6bc6a1
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Batteries not included
www.carbonrisk.world/batteries-no...
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Batteries not included
The outlook for European carbon prices will increasingly depend on the rollout of batteries that can store surplus electricity generated by solar power. Solar was the largest source of electricity in...
https://www.carbonrisk.world/batteries-not-included/
4 months ago
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Peter Sainsbury
Kate Mackenzie
4 months ago
Looking forward to more on this from every bad faith actor who's claimed clean energy is intrinsically bad for developing countries
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