After 8️⃣ years as Social Media Editor of @wepsocial.bsky.social I am very happy to announce that @chdausgaard.bsky.social takes over from 1 January 2026 on. 🥳 It was a great pleasure to be part of @wepsocial.bsky.social journey & I thank the editors for the trust they have placed in me. 😊

Excited to be presenting my and Frederik's paper on elite rhetoric and group-party linkages in a few hours at the TaDa Spring Speaker Series! Tune in at the link below.

Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host @chdausgaard.bsky.social from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages. 📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time 🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool

🚨 New piece in TIME: AI progress hasn't stalled — it's just become invisible to most people. 🚨 I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵

In a new working paper, @fghjorth.bsky.social and I show that party elites have significant power to shape group linkages through their rhetoric, suggesting that such linkages are more dynamic and elite-driven than suggested by predominant structural accounts. 🧵

It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations. Some thoughts, if you are interested:

I also haven't heard of Zizek. Or Hegel.

Remember best practice in a power analysis is to plan not for the effect you expect, but for the smallest effect size of interest. The type 2 error is a conditional inference: If there is an effect I care about, I would have X probability to detect it. lakens.github.io/statistical_...

In causal inference there are row people: "I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻) and column people: "I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)

Great to see this out!

We've made a major update to the causal diagrams chapter of Causal Inference in R! Check it out to learn about DAGs! I think there's a lot in this chapter that is undercovered in other sources. #rstats #causalinference @lucystats.bsky.social @travisgerke.bsky.social www.r-causal.org/chapters/05-...

Over the course of my ERC project we collected panel surveys in BE, DE, ES, GR, IRE and PT in 2019-2021 on pol behaviour including voting in national and EP elections. Recently, those data have been deposited and are available here. dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/MA...

Special election results tonight were ambiguous, with Republicans overperforming partisan lean in 3 and Democrats overperforming in 4. Overall for the cycle, though, Dems are still overperforming bigly. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

🤔 Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals

New: Rs question the integrity of House races when their candidates lose at much higher rates than Ds, but candidate race and margin of loss have no measurable effect (w/@johncarey.bsky.social, B. Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and great Dartmouth students) sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...

Everyone knows about retrospective (economic) voting. We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions? Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...

A 🧵 on Israeli strategy or lack thereof. Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/

Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.

POV: you posted a chart of median real [insert data here] on the internet in 2023

This poll of Muslims in Britain, which is now being widely reported, is complete garbage. It is a self-selection social media poll, no better than the Daily Express "reader polls" showing "98% support for Brexit" or similar: x.com/MuslimCensus...

BREAKING: The GOP has decided to nominate rainfall as the new House Speaker.

📣 New WP alert 📣 osf.io/jq28n “Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does” With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli /Thread 🧵

I don't know who needs to hear this, but if you are writing a paper where there are two theories Theory 1: X-->Y Theory 2: Z-->Y Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.

I didn’t post much on the last place. I’m not entirely sure I’ll do better here. But hello. Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.

There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...

The program of the Causal Data Science Meeting 2023 (Nov 7–8) is now available on our newly redesigned website. Check out the fantastic list of presentations and register for free under causalscience.org 🔊 Please share with your network!

My God, my God, why have you forsaken me!? This rain, it moves everything at once!

Next week I'm teaching poverty measurement and I made a little shiny app where students can move incomes or the poverty line around and see how various common poverty measures change. Feel free to use or share or tell me what I should add or modify. ryanbriggs.shinyapps.io/Poverty_Meas...

You can find all the training material (slides, lecture recordings, workshop tutorials) of our week-long summer school on open science in this repository: osf.io/nymr5/ Happy self-learning! #OSCSummerSchool23

New preprint posted! A little note to help folks think about the consequences of using one design when many designs would test the same general claim. Example: For an experiment on party cues, you need to cue positions on a particular policy. Which policy? osf.io/zaykd/ #polisky #statsky

Current econTwitter drama is someone created a fake account to impersonate recent Nobel Prize winner Claudia Goldin, and used the attention to spread misinfo saying Amartya Sen had passed away??? Things are going great

What do MPSA and Kevin McCarthy have in common? Neither can make credible commitments

📉📈 #EconSky I have a new @IZA WP with my colleague Hao Dong. Some might find it shocking, but I really like the paper. A 🧵 "Embrace the Noise: It Is OK to Ignore Measurement Error in a Covariate, Sometimes" docs.iza.org/dp16508.pdf

Talking with a colleague about errors in conditioning and remembered this glorious example. His statement is conditional on encounter, but the rates shown are unconditional. This example is funny, but less funny when a judge makes a structurally similar mistake.

I wanted to consolidate a few thoughts on google, misinformation, large language models, enshittification, and the fate of the web as we know it. It started when @carlzimmer.bsky.social shared this remarkable example of Google being fooled by machine-generated bullshit online. 1/n

🚨Call for Papers🚨 Psyched to announce the CBS-Princeton Money in Politics conference to be held in Copenhagen, June 2024. Third iteration of the conference, always a fantastic experience. Send us your papers before Jan 5, '24! Link: shorturl.at/ampPV 1/2

Just concluded a 3-day workshop with the excellent @phuenermund.bsky.social on causal data science with DAGs. Even more bullish on this exciting research program now than I was before! And cannot recommend Paul’s workshops highly enough.

With citizens' perceptions of the economy in the news, I wanted to re-up my article with Eunji Kim & Soojong Kim. tl;dr: Public opinion tends to track real-world economic conditions--and the tone of media coverage *lags* public opinion. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... 1/

Do you want to analyze documents written in different languages, but you don't know what challenges you'll face and what solutions exist? Then @fabiennelind.bsky.social and I got you covered with our guide to multilingual text analysis in Comp Comm. Research. 👇👇 www.aup-online.com/content/jour...

Here's a fun assignment idea for seminar: give students the design section of a paper only; they write the theory -> predictions section (5 paragraphs max)

A query for the survey/behaviour people. What are the earliest, reasonably reliable, comparative measures we have for the strength of partisan identity in W. Europe? Anything that covers multiple countries before CSES Module 1 in 1996? polisky comparativesky behavioursky poldatasky

Brilliant example for any stats or data journalism class: Bloomberg reported that 94% of new jobs in S&P 100 in 2020/21 went to POC. Other journalists checked: this (astonishingly high) number appears to stem from getting the denominator wrong. www.dailywire.com/news/bloombe... cssky #Commsky 📟

Nice new study from Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg and @andyguess.com on the effect of source credibility on persuasion. Headline for me: successfully manipulating credibility doesn't seem to have downstream effects on persuasiveness doi.org/10.1017/XPS....

When do dictators use their oil wealth for social welfare, instead of repression? Ferdinand Eibl and Steffen Hertog's new APSR piece provides one answer: when they face mass mobilization seeking regime change (as opposed to secession). #polisky #menasky www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

These results challenge the CW on whether local control drive the housing affordability crisis. At a minimum, our results have two implications. 1. Local control can *sometimes* lead to more housing. 2. Local control leads to more housing in DK by shaping city interest.

⏰HOUSING AND LOCAL CONTROL⏰ Less local ctrl should translate into more housing, as the power of NIMBY activists wane. But in a new paper, Laura Kettel and I show that a reform that diluted local control over land use in Denmark lead to less housing??? osf.io/5adyg/

Positive spin: all the spirit of design-based causal inference, just without the design #almostthere

What is the value added of local democracy? Fascinating paper on a natural experiment in India: Local democracy aligns spending more closely with citizen preferences, but these gains accrue more to advantaged groups. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...

New pub on the effects of parties' election pledges on citizens' vote choice We propose - A theory of pledge-based voting - A design for studying effects of pledges in real-time - An effect size between 1.1 and 2.1 %points for most salient pledges averaged across electorate polsky dkpol behaviorsky