Escalation Dynamics in Maritime East Asia Join experts on sea power, East Asian security & geostrategy and their relevance for Europe with Prof Alessio Patalano @sophgaston.bsky.social @ianbowers.bsky.social & Prof Øystein Tunsjø 📅 Thu 11 Dec,17:00–18:30 📍Melbourne House 🎟️ csns.uk/event/escala...

The reality of North Korea punditry is that *very* few people *remotely* have an idea of what Kim Jong Un is up to, and even then, they haven’t had an informed take since probably 2019-20. Yet “experts” are asked to opine and speculate and it becomes headline news. Yes, the media fuels this, I know.

The Future of Defense Is Coincidentally Made By My Company by Every War Industry Executive

A nuclear promise is only as strong as it is believable. And right now, South Korea isn’t convinced. warontherocks.com/20...

A great smorgasbord of strategic thinking in the latest issue of Survival. Key words: time is of the essence. The piece on "NATO's vulnerable space assets" is ground-breaking (@IanBowers & Henrik Stålhane Hiim) re the baleful consequences for Europe of 🇨🇳space operations in a Taiwan crisis.

NEW satellite imagery and AIS data provide the first complete timeline of how China has systematically deployed structures in disputed Yellow Sea waters despite S. Korean objections, according to @csis.org Beyond Parallel analysis. cc: @victordcha.bsky.social, AMTI, Jennifer Jun ↓ Findings below

Check out our new article in Survival written with Henrik Hiim. We examine the knock-on risks of a US-China conflict to NATO's space operations and the potential impact on NATO's warfighting capabilities. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Exit polls have Lee Jae-myung as South Korea's next president. There will be plenty of pieces in next few days saying why that's good/bad-most will say bad-for US-ROK alliance. For now, enough to say this starts to bring closure to a very turbulent few months in South Korea's domestic politics.

Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...

🇩🇰Danish shipping giant Maersk apparently has offered Danish defence shipbuilding capacity in South Korea for the new air defence frigates. The hulls could be built in 🇰🇷South Korea and then fully assembled and equipped in Denmark to speed up the proces. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

ONP Doctoral Research Fellow @frhoffmann.bsky.social, together with @marksbell.bsky.social, has published a new article in Foreign Affairs examining the implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the European continent for European nuclear deterrence.

An important finding. "...officials from several European countries on the North Sea and Baltic Sea told Recorded Future News there is increasing confidence among their governments that the incidents were accidental and not directed by the Kremlin." therecord.media/european-off...

Velkommen til bokbad på Litteraturhuset! 📖 23. april, kl. 15.30 lanseres boken "Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry". Meld deg på her👇

This would seem to be a sub-optimal result for long-term US strategic goals towards China (assuming long-term thinking is still a consideration in Washington). 🤦‍♂️ China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...

Tomorrow, Norwegian F-35s will escort American B-52 Stratofortress over Eastern Norway. The aircraft will make a low pass over Oslo city centre at 12:00 noon. The flight is part of normal training activities and gives Norwegian and US forces vital training. #StrongerTogether #WeAreNATO

This is a solid argument for a French/Anglo-French European extended nuclear deterrent.

Coming round to the view that a French/Anglo-French extended deterrence system is the best option vs. continued reliance on an inconstant US, or opening the door to European (and global) nuclear proliferation.

A mother & son in Ukraine 🇺🇦, 1993 vs. 2025. Whose side are we on, America🇺🇸?

In a "quiet but seismic recalibration," Trump has rolled back constraints on American commanders to authorize airstrikes & special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted according to US officials with knowledge of the policy shift

📆Happening tomorrow, Feb. 25, 9-10am. ❓How should Europe engage with Russia amid its ongoing war with Ukraine? ☢️Join us in Oslo for a timely panel discussion with experts from the Peace Research Institute Oslo & ONP. Learn more and register ➡️ prio.org/events/9215

French Navy aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) coming into Subic Bay - February 21, 2025 #fscharlesdegaulle #r91 SRC: TW-@MarieFontanelPH

I’d like to think I’m the first person to get into a flame war with VPOTUS from the swimming pool of Woburn Center Parcs at half-term.

Want to live in New Zealand and work with me? ejye.fa.ap1.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

(Paywalled article) NATOs third CAOC will be established in Norway and the Norwegian government has to decide on the location by the end of February. There are two candidates: Alongside Joint HQ outside Bodø but the mountain facility is at capacity. Rygge, with an empty hardened site.

USS Harry S. Truman Collides with Merchant Vessel - USNI News news.usni.org/2025/02/13/b...

warroom.armywarcollege.edu/podcasts/war... Please check out this episode of War Room from US Army War College where my vague notions are given form and structure by the brilliant JP Clark @jpclark97.bsky.social @warroomeds.bsky.social

Join the Oslo Nuclear Project @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social and YATA Norway’s upcoming expert discussion on the third year of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine 🇺🇦 www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/...

📅 Save the date for a panel! On 11 February (17-18:30 CET) ONP is co-hosting an in-person panel with YATA Norway on the three-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine. 👉 To register: t.co/XxwIyZ6g8y

Hanwa Aerospace has been visiting Oslo, trying to sell its K239 Chunmoo MLRS. This after Norway went wider in their search for MLRS after the US did not want to supply the longest-range missiles for the HIMARS system previously thought a shoo-in. www.altinget.no/artikkel/soe...

Deadline is 1 March - there's no conference fee! #CivMilSky #MilSky

South Korea’s DAPA has initiated a major upgrade program for the KDX-II destroyers, replacing outdated systems with advanced domestic technology 🇰🇷 www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

The loading of the what the US Army described as a “credible, land-based maritime strike capability” onto a vessel for the first time is a crucial step for the Typhon Missile System’s future deployment in coastal and amphibious operations across the Indo-Pacific 🇺🇸🚀 www.navalnews.com/event-news/s...

“By January 2024, agents working at the behest of India’s intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), began quietly discussing with Maldivian opposition leaders the possibility of removing [Maldives president] Muizzu” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...

Excellent article on the challenges of planning and cyber warfare at the operational level. Emphasises doctrine, people and process. Valuable for any PME course. warontherocks.com/2024/12/cybe...

Explosions detected in the Murmansk area, near Severomorsk, pretty close to the Norwegian border. www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...

Developments in the Yi Peng 3 case:

Good thread on the operational realities of ASW

The Swedish Army is turning to Hanwa of South Korea to replenish stock of artillery propelling charges while creating production capacity closer to home. www.fmv.se/aktuellt--pr...

Incredible: Outside the South Korean presidential office in Yongsan, there’s about a half-mile row of wreaths sent by his supporters as he faces a likely successful impeachment vote tomorrow. It goes on and on and on and on, on both sides of the road. (Quick thread on wreath culture in Korea)

Norway is in the process of acquiring rocket artillery. Last year the US offered HIMARS, but without the newest PrSM and ER GMLRS missiles. So the FMA now sent out an ITT (invitation to tender) to German and South Korean suppliers. www.tu.no/artikler/nor...

Excellent article on the need for fresh combatant command-centric approaches to C2. warontherocks.com/2024/12/empo...

Call for Papers: we're seeking submissions for our NATO in the NORDICS conference in Oslo, 17/18 September 2025 Please check out the themes, submit your proposal, and share this call! sjms.nu/conference #CivMilSky

Hello, new followers 👋 We are SJMS, an online, open-access journal in the multidisciplinary field of military studies. Our journal is Scopus-indexed, and we don't charge for publishing. We are here to promote our authors' work and seek new submissions. Learn more 👇 #milsky #polsky #civmilsky

As much as political elite threatens South Korea's fragile democracy, it's also the resilience of its people that protects it.

Language from Yoon's impeachment bill. This is why domestic politics needs more attention in eval. of foreign policy (h/t @joelatkinson.bsky.social). Relations with Japan now radioactive. Many of us argued Yoon's approach ensured better relations would be short-lived despite importance.

@kfriedhoff.bsky.social is spot on with all of the comments in this thread.

The short of this up front: this is the end of Yoon's presidency. Full stop. He had a razor thin margin in the National Assembly--8 votes I believe--to prevent impeachment. That margin will disappear. The only question is how his presidency will end and how much violence it will entail.