Done with my last talk before leave! This one was fun and I'm glad I added Columbo last minute. Slides here, in case you're curious: juliarohrer.com/wp-content/u...

A well-reported update on the 15 South American people ICE sent to DR Congo two weeks ago. Trapped in a rat-infested hotel by the airport with no options but going back to the countries they fled. This is what we're doing to legal asylum-seekers who "followed the rules." www.npr.org/2026/04/28/n...

It’s infuriating when a woman comes forward about a man raping her in his hotel room after drinking and the response is “Why would she go to his room?” “Why would she drink with him?” This is Mike Pence logic. Women should be allowed to hang out with men without expecting they will be raped.

Exclusive: The acting director of the CDC has delayed publication of a report showing the covid-19 vaccine cut the likelihood of ER visits and hospitalizations for healthy adults last winter by about half, according to two scientists.

I like this because it articulates the conservative concept of freedom in a nutshell. You have the freedom to do x, except you don't, because I don't want you to. bsky.app/profile/atru...

i’ve been asked a few times recently about why it’s so important to me as a journalist to describe things plainly—like referring to the planned ICE warehouses as concentration camps. seeing the term used in a letter to the secretary of defense is proof that journalists’ word choices have impact.

“I am political,” Ms. Rachel told me of her new effort to free kids from ICE detention. “It’s political to believe that children are worthy of love … and that our care shouldn’t stop at what we look like, our family, at our religion, at a border. Mr. Rogers was very political.”

If you like watching actors break, you'll enjoy this

Afghan special forces soldier who worked with U.S. Army Special Forces - 3rd Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne) has died after less than 24 hours in ICE custody. The enemy couldn’t kill him - but ICE, through action or inaction, did.

New in PN: The irrational strongman we’ve been warned about is here "The fantasy monster that president after president has conjured up is real, and he is squatting orangely over his phone in the bathroom at Mar-A-Lago."

And it reaches beyond that. About 3/4 of my little free library children’s board and picture books are imagination library books, passed on once kids outgrow them. Since Imagination library changes their booklists yearly, this is a steady and growing collection of good books at the right level

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.” What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.

Video shows ICE leaving behind an infant and broken glass after arresting a man with no criminal history. “There was a car seat in the back... There were broken glass shards all over it... There was just this tiny peanut of a baby. He was crying.” My latest: www.pressherald.com/2026/01/28/i...

I have a great idea for retraining ICE agents: defector.com/i-have-a-gre...

My friend Sara posted this about the superb care her father received from with Alex Pretti Absolutely heartbreaking

New YouGov poll: Abolish ICE is now at a *record high* level of support in the United States 46% support 41% oppose Independents are +12 on abolishing ICE 19% of Republicans now support abolishing ICE as well

I've seen several popular movements in my lifetime and history now as someone who teaches comparative politics. When people show up in the dead of winter, on a workday, when it is the most inconvenient because of cold, it shows how strongly they are motivated against the government.

Breaking MS NOW: Aides to Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche directed the U.S. Attorney's office and FBI agents in Minnesota to shut down the civil rights investigation into the fatal shooting of Renee Good and instead alter it to probe Good for possible criminal liability.

People who say this are clearly speaking aspirationally about a shared American creed they hold dear. “Have you heard of the Trail of Tears?” is not a very helpful response, because they probably have and the priority right now is moral opposition to fascism and not fake-educating each other.

A buddy in MN shared a drawing a classmate of his kid made. They've been making thank you notes for parents who have volunteered to carpool them to school so their own parents don't have to risk waiting out by the bus stop.

I really want ppl w/o Minneapolis connections to understand You might've heard that Mpls public schools went hybrid bc so many families are in hiding. Well, a coworker just told me that today, during his kid's hybrid class, a kid's apt building was raided onscreen *Everyone has stories like this*

People who aren't in Minnesota might not know that if you drive or walk past pretty much any school, there's going to be a group of people, parents and childless, standing guard to make sure the kids are safe from feds. It's pretty remarkable. And very disturbing. www.mprnews.org/story/2026/0...

ICE kidnap 17-year-old U.S. citizen working at Target then dump him bleeding and crying miles away in a Walmart parking lot… 🤬

🚨 NEW VIDEO 👇🏽This puts an end to all the lies. Horrific. They were having a calm exchange seconds before he murdered Renee Good, and she was barely moving and clearly avoiding him. Stop the lies.

@marisakabas.bsky.social managing to concisely lay out what's going on, without screaming and cursing like when I do it

Spent 6 months in detention waiting on a decision on his asylum application until he was deported to CECOT The detail that they sent out an asylum seeker who presented himself to immigration correctly also seems new. Again, did we know this? Seems like a weird thing for a terrorist to do

This has been made available, so for purposes of commenting on Bari Weiss's decision to spike the story, here's a live-post of that segment. It begins with a "you may recall" summary of the deportation to el Salvador. Describes the admin's claim that it could deport the men without due process

ICE pepper-sprayed this 1-year-old girl. Once at the hospital, the doctor had to call in a poison control specialist. They had never seen anyone that young pepper sprayed. Another horrific story. More details below.

Armed ICE agents trapped US citizens in a restaurant and demanded their papers. Federal agents walked into East African restaurants in Cedar-Riverside, MN. They closed and blocked the doors. Then they demanded to see everyone’s papers. Every person present was a US citizen.

The news has entirely failed to grasp the unprecedented scope of the ICE and DHS budgets. Nothing like it in modern history. A galaxy of public/private surveillance and caging institutions for $100,000,000,000s unleashed on a public that will be forever changed. www.brennancenter.org/our-work/res...

This is murder. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

BREAKING from PP We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens* The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied: Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado www.propublica.org/article/immi... by @nicolefoy.bsky.social

What if the unidentified masked men with guns don't accept the validity of your papers?

During a military-style raid on a building in Chicago’s South Shore, one resident heard a knock on his door. 

It wasn’t the feds —  it was a mom and her 7-year-old daughter, pleading for help. He let them hide in his unit for the next 3 days. chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...

In case anyone thinks this is paranoid, Trump’s junta has defined terrorism to include trespass, naming ICE agents on the internet, and whatever “civil disorder” is.

Really funny to ask a “Public Intellectual” what the last interesting academic paper they read was and for them to respond “I only read substack”

A United States Senate investigation has identified more than 500 credible reports of human rights abuses in US immigration detention since January, including alarming allegations of mistreatment of pregnant women and children.

He's such a piece of garbage. www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

Amen - coefficients from different (often non-linear) models don't mean the same thing, but they get compared all the time. The "effect" of interest is a marginal effect for an explicit target population, not a parameter. Software guided workflow could help, plug into tools like marginaleffects.com

Inflicting bad feelings on yourself is often a way to discharge the desire to do something without actually doing it It’s the reason middle-school Andrew insulted himself for being bad at math to avoid doing his math homework Feeling bad felt like work, and I could do it while playing video games

The Iowa GOP advanced a bill making it a misdemeanor for a healthcare provider to administer a Covid vaccine. Even when a person has requested a Covid vaccine.

When you cut government spending, you're pulling money out of the economy. And unless private sector growth offsets it, that means people have less money to pay for goods and services, which means the economy contracts. There's no "but that was government spending" exception to the laws of gravity

Roses are red, But that's not quite true, They absorb every wavelength of the visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, *Except* for that hue.

Hey #StatsSky, what are you favorite papers to cite when you need to justify something that is obvious (I once had a reviewer ask we justify the use of logistic regression on a binary outcome) or when you need to push-back on silly reviewer requests (e.g., asking for p-values in table 1)?