Phenomenal 3-part lecture series by Dr. Hong Wang hosted by Institut des Hautes Etudes Scientifiques (IHES) going through the proof for 2D, sticky, and general Kakeya sets. Probably the biggest math breakthrough in 2025! #math #academicsky #mathsky www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9xK...

The web version of this text is incredibly high yield. Block quotes from other statisticians. Audio-inputs. Also an excellent table at the end (which I can only partly screen cap on my phone). #academicsky #statistics #statssky

#Statistics thought of the day: For longitudinal studies, don't treat the baseline measurement as the first follow-up measurement. Baseline cannot be considered a response to treatment. You'd be surprised how often this in done in #pharma. hbiostat.org/rmsc/long#mo... #StatsSky

Anyway, I really feel like the whole environment, including the state of the published literature, is really colluding against students learning how to do proper research. That’s a shame; I always have the impression our students really do want to learn how to do things the right way.

End of year reminder: the TRIPOD+AI reporting guideline is reporting standard for all clinical prediction model studies, including those using machine learning and AI. --> www.bmj.com/content/385/...

A first for both of us, @alicemeadows.bsky.social! 🎉 In it, I talk about how ORCID is making it possible to share other types of research outputs relevant to the arts and humanities scholars (like musical compositions, imagery and film, and teaching materials.) info.orcid.org/new-work-typ...

Our guidance regarding performance measures for medical AI models is finally out! - Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things - Calibration and clinical utility are key - Show risk distributions - Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

A good title for a chapter on estimation: "What to expect when you're expectation value"

Translating written / whiteboard statistics to Latex is still an incredibly painful experience. #academicsky #mathsky #statssky

One thing @statberry.bsky.social does a lot that we should all be doing more is showing investigators the results of simulating their trial several times. When you know the true treatment effect but you get wild estimates with non-large N it usually gets their attention.

I didn't realize this until the other day but I usually keep matches and a candle on my coffee table (an old wooden chest) and it is essentially all the ingredients you need to estimate pi and solve Buffons Needle problem. I can't unsee it now. My poor future houseguests. #statssky #statistics #math

#rstats It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week. He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly. www.john-fox.ca

Interesting move of a preprint server to ban papers on AI, apparently due to record numbers of submissions of which low quality content was generated using AI #academicsky #AI #statssky

This whole interaction. Is exactly why I am on this platform. Experts, discussing and debating. Sharing resources. 👏 👏 More of this please

Because @laurewynants.bsky.social and @benvancalster.bsky.social do no get on here much #DataScience #MachineLearning #MissingData #Imputation #Rstats #Python #AI journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

One of the most upsetting articles I've read in a long time www.theargumentmag.com/p/when-grade... UCSD report senate.ucsd.edu/media/740347... We are failing a generation of kids.

@f2harrell.bsky.social you were right. Coverage for TMLE xgboost grid search size 5 appeared better than 20 but still the coverage is disappointing. I’ve updated this examination for my learning. Thanks again for the guidance. www.kenkoonwong.com/blog/tmle/

I was thinking about the efficiency of nonparametric tests and remembered this SO post about the Wilcox being 96% as efficient as T test, even in small samples. For those who have a copy, Lehman & Romano did an thorough job in <5 pages detailing situation. #statssky #statistics #rstats #AcademicSky

We wrote the Strain on scientific publishing to highlight the problems of time & trust. With a fantastic group of co-authors, we present The Drain of Scientific Publishing: a 🧵 1/n Drain: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Strain: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/... Oligopoly: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...

I have been a reviewer on 5 papers this year for AI/ML validation and each time they used R or R Squared. Had to request a Bier Score, Emax, even slope and intercept would be more ideal. Would be nice if ICI was more popular too

Survey Statistics: weights and MRP for voters statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/11/s...

It’s fascinating how cohorts of statisticians have parallel pockets of hyper-specific knowledge due to textbooks, like the collective familiarity with blue fiddler crab mating patterns, courtesy of Agresti. Palmer penguins, iris data, ect, any others I'm missing? #statssky #statistics #rstats

Well, it's official. #UNL Chancellor Bennett submitted his final proposal and it includes eliminating the #statistics department. budgetprocess.unl.edu/final-budget... Guess it's time to go look for jobs. Anyone looking for a couple of very talented #datavis researchers?

Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments: One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.

One thing I have noticed a lot in meta-analysis (thinking of those involving comparison of prognostic models) is that most focus on Embase and Medline, but no mention of Compendium (think IEEE) WoS or Scopus. Granted the sheer volume for data extraction would be astronomical.

Does anyone else automictically reach for the PDF symbol when opening a new article on a journal site? It just seems like I can read the them faster. #AcademicSky

It's a shame I didn't find this before Oct. 31st. And also a shame the term "Ghost-time bias" never caught on.

NEW PAPER: "Reporting guidelines for studies involving generative artificial intelligence applications: what do I use, and when?" --> www.nature.com/articles/s41... #HealthTech #ClinicalAI #MachineLearning #MedAI #AIinMedicine #TransparentAI #HealthInnovation #GenAI

Probably the papers I share the most often are @f2harrell.bsky.social 1996 on how to effectively develop multivariate models and @benvancalster.bsky.social 2019 paper on Calibration. Both extremely well written and informative. What are you most shared stats paper? #statistics #statssky #academicsky

I recently rederived the poisson pdf distribution from the binomial. Reminds me of @kareemcarr.bsky.social recent blog about memorization vs proof. No computer around and needed it for something. Certainly there are times where knowing something will be time saving then re-deriving it from scratch.

Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery? What's Your Guess? In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching: 1/ #CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky

We wrote an article explaining why you shouldn't put several variables into a regression model and report which are statistically significant - even as exploratory research. bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... How did we do?

I have hiked and led hikes up Mt Washington about 30 times now. Fall is definitely one of the most deceptively dangerous times of year to hike it and you need to be prepared for overnight and winter weather!

I went into the office recently and I realized that the depth of my answer to a question a generally related to my proximity to a whiteboard. Anyone else? #statistis #statssky

This reminds me of a Penn & Teller quote related to the Gilbert-Shannon-Reeds model, where in 1955, they showed 7 "riffles" were needed to fully randomize a deck of cards. Below is a fascinating extension by Rick Wicklin showing how my riffles are required to restore a deck to its initial order

Excellent app!

Robert Frost was certainly more familiar with iambic pentameter than he was with estimated parameters, but in 1942 he wrote a couplet that sounds very much like a poet's perception of a confidence interval: #statistics #statssky #academicsky

Great piece on the absurdity of brute force multiverse analyses. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Since efficiency is defined in terms of variance (the second moment) and typically used to assess the performance of estimators for the mean, would estimators of higher-order moments such as skewness or kurtosis require an efficiency criterion based on correspondingly higher moments? Are these used?

This paper’s been popping as “evidence” that you can’t do real #causalinference w/ obs data. To me it shows you need rigorous pre-specified design (in addition to the willingness to fold when your hypothesis is not possible to answer with the data at hand). #EpiSky, #CausalSky, #AcademicSky

TOMORROW! 📢 R Consortium webinar: J&J’s Hybrid SAS/R FDA Submission: What Worked and Why Most pharma teams live in a mixed world of SAS and R. Go inside a successful hybrid SAS/R FDA submission and see exactly how the team made it work! r-consortium.org/webinars/jnj... #rstats #pharma #sas

Would be curious is anyone has follow through with this suggestion from this excellent @significancemag.bsky.social article from August 2011 by Alan Karr and S Stanley Young rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

ggplot(data, aes(x,y)) + geom_jitter(velocity = units(17000, "mph")) help, my data is stuck in LEO #RStats #ggplot #dataviz

Here is a regular reminder of my deconstructR package, which offers self-destructing plots in R (gravity plot, black hole plot, ...). You'll find the sources here: github.com/brandmaier/d... No need to thank me. And here is a gravity plot attached. #rstats #academicsky #phdsky

My fav starter packs so far, a thread: stats: go.bsky.app/Ki7PjpS stats: go.bsky.app/7TBN5rX causal inference: go.bsky.app/FdemGAZ package devs: go.bsky.app/N1569Qh data peeps: go.bsky.app/8TdEfdK medical stats: go.bsky.app/ArqEz36 bioinformatics: go.bsky.app/Ha64Gmv r-ladies: go.bsky.app/Vgxwa2F

Great to see @significancemag.bsky.social on bsky.

We’ve discussed who owns the *means* of production, but what about the *skews* and *kurtosis* of production? 🤔

For anyone who has not read Stigler's wonderful paper on the Epic Story of Maximum Likelihood, I cannot recommend it enough. You will laugh, you might cry, and you will certainly walk away learning something new. #statssky #statistics www.mit.edu/~18.655/pape...

Still one of my favorite blog posts: simplystatistics.org/posts/2019-0... #datascience #StatsSky #statistics #Academics

I feel like plotting the histogram of the error, squared error and absolute error is so much more informative then viewing the MSE or the RMSE.