#Statistics thought of the day: Virtually all of single-event survival analysis (including Kaplan-Meier, Cox PH, AFT) is a special case of cumulative probability semiparametric ordinal regression models: hbiostat.org/rmsc/ordsurv #StatsSky

Very Excited for the next Causal Inference Seminar at @jhubiostat.bsky.social on May 21st! #statsky #academicsky #skystats

Came across this gem again today. Still makes me giggle @richarddriley.bsky.social @gscollins.bsky.social Yes, it is published: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32817260/

Wonderful manuscript on the need and power of Statistical Methodology Groups in Pharma , authored by Jennifer Davenport at Roche, @numbersman77.bsky.social, and others! Below are some of my favorite quotes #skystats #statssky #statistics #EpiSky

Great to see this investigated. I suspect we'd see it everywhere if we bothered to look. More thoughts below, in the context of diabetes. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... (with @f2harrell.bsky.social and @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social)

"Conventional statistical practice, which systematically ignores certain sources of error ..., is bound to yield overconfident results that will often fail to replicate." New preprint by Knief & Forstmeier (2026): doi.org/10.1101/2025... #stats #MetaSci

I absolutely love this. Caregiver grants for those who need it to join @amstatnews.bsky.social JSM this year. I hope more conferences move in this direction. #academiceky #skystats #statssky #JSM2026

Starting in 5 minutes @jhubiostat.bsky.social Zoom link: publichealth.jhu.edu/events/2026/...

glmmtmb has always been my go-to, would love to see how this compares

This is the clearest and most accessible introduction to DML I've ever read: arxiv.org/abs/2504.08324 Congrats to the authors @aahrens.bsky.social, @markeschaffer.bsky.social, et al on this amazing paper and great accompanying R package! I'm now DML-pilled.

Stunning! Definitely, thanks for sharing.

I did not know this.

"The algorithm did not become compassionate; however, the medical profession has drifted so far from the bedside that an AI language model can now outperform physicians on the very quality that medicine assumed would remain uniquely human." Great viewpoint @jama.com #skystats tinyurl.com/4yv8b6y5

Regression Modeling Strategies 4-day virtual course May 14-15, 18-19. More than regression:principled flexible modeling, accuracy, interpretation, selection, stability, validation, Bayes, contrast w/ML &more. hbiostat.org/course @amstatnews.bsky.social @instats.bsky.social #Statistics #StatsSky

Just learned that Oscar Sheynin died a couple of years ago. I always enjoyed his pieces on the history of statistics. As an associate editor for Biometrika in the min 1990s I had no hesitation in recommending this academic.oup.com/biomet/artic... coauthored with Pfanzagl for publication.

8 workers on a 1 GB dataset no longer means 8 GB of RAM - it means 1 GB, shared. Massive step forward for simulation studies. #statssky #slystats

Thrilled to realize my JHU schedule overlaps with @pwgtennant.bsky.social for my first in-person causal inference seminar! @jhubiostat.bsky.social

Estimating prevalence is really really really difficult

I’m so glad to see more attention being paid to the data being used to train AI models. The results will only be as good as the data going in.

This might not seem like a big win, but I learned how to make custom .csl files in Zotero today #academicsky

Interesting read. Would be curious to hear other takes. Also, what about REMAP!? 😀 cc @andygarrett.bsky.social @marionkcampbell.bsky.social @stephensenn.bsky.social @vcornelius.bsky.social @f2harrell.bsky.social @gsmaclennan.bsky.social

Regression Modeling Strategies 4-day virtual course May 14-15, 18-19. More than regression:principled flexible modeling, accuracy, interpretation, selection, stability, validation, Bayes, contrast w/ML &more. hbiostat.org/course @amstatnews.bsky.social @instats.bsky.social #Statistics #StatsSky

This is really, really good.

hbiostat.org/bbr/dx. Related to the great statistician Dawid's article explaining why probability of disease is the diagnostic problem while sensitivity & specificity are part of the "sampling model". Sens & spec are only consistent with outcome-based sampling.

Inclusion bias in #GWAS of #EHR traits "By weighting the sample using inverse probability weights derived from probabilities of enrollment, we replicate 54% more known GWAS variants" 😱 #statgen www.cell.com/ajhg/fulltex...

Doing statistics well is hard. Avoiding egregious errors in analysis, reporting and interpretation isn't. Just read, understand and follow the guidelines. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32451178/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37286459/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40914655/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30580902/

I am grateful to Scott Berry for inviting me onto his podcast 55: A Visit with Stephen Senn: Time, Concurrent Controls, and the Bayesian Guidance www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnb0...

Frank Harrell on why and how to do Bayes for clinical trials and the recent FDA draft guidelines statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/26/f...

#rstats #dataviz Titanic data examples:

I recently found out after the fact that I was the sole reviewer on a paper (major revision) and I wish I had known before the reviewer as I am not an SME on the entire paper, it makes me hesitant. Any thoughts on this? #academicsky

For anyone who is doing statistical simulation work, I honestly cannot recommend @timpmorris.bsky.social's elegant 2019 manuscript on ADEMP framework enough. Outlining a structured approach to planning sim studies, w/in-depth examples+how to display Monte Carlo SEs. #statssky#statistics #academicsky

Celebrating the draft FDA Bayesian guidance document with our perspective in @jama.com. Honored to co-author w/Jack Lee (MD Anderson), Lisa LaVange (past director of Office of Biostatistics FDA CDER&president of ASA),& my Bayesian inspiration Sir David Spiegelhalter jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

I worry that a strongly informative prior, if wrong, could heavily influence results in a small dataset, whereas in a much larger dataset it would have much less effect on the posterior. I imagine you are stuck using uninformative priors? Sad to have missed the talk! #statistics #statssky #skystats

Just listened to this excellent profile of Meitner in Naomi Alderman’s Human Intelligence (the whole series is great) www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

It used to be that only at most three or maybe four people read a PhD. The author, the supervisor, the examiner(s). Nowadays even the “author” might not have read it.

"The Grad Student Who Never Said 'No'" was a blog post by Brian Wansink in which he praised a grad student for coming up with new ways to reanalyze the data. This attracted quite a bit of attention which eventually led to Wansink's downfall: www.npr.org/sections/the...

While working full-time & raising a child, Grace Wahba earned advanced degrees, completing her PhD at Stanford and becoming the first female faculty member in statistics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. #womenshistorymonth #statwomen magazine.amstat.org/blog/2026/03... #statssky

Stats teachers, are you looking for real-world data for your students? Leticia Perez, Freida Reichsman, and Cynthia McIntyre introduce data biographies—a collection of curated data sets. Create activities for your students www.statisticsteacher.org/2026/01/29/d... #statssky

Application deadline: March 31 2026 New Researchers Conference Asia sites.google.com/uw.edu/inrc-... in Hong Kong on June 17-18, 2026, right after the IMS-APRM 2026 (IMS Asia Pacific Rim Meeting).

And make of this what you will.

if you're gonna write a paper claiming "LLMs can generate a statistical analysis plan for a clinical trial", and then provide THIS as an example of good output... big yikes

After nearly 400 episodes, "Stats + Stories" has become a space in which statisticians, journalists, and the curious come together to make sense of the world around them. Read this behind-the-scenes look at what it takes to produce a podcast. magazine.amstat.org/blog/2026/03... #statssky

@glenmartin.bsky.social is giving an online seminar: "Missing Data: The Missing Component in Guidance for Developing, Validating and Implementing Prediction Models" 📅 Date: Tuesday 10th March 2026 🕐 Time: 1–2pm GMT 📍 Location: Online 🔗 Register here to receive the Teams link: lnkd.in/ejk7EFzC

What if you combine open datasets with AI? Apparently, a 3 fold increase in low quality research papers, mass-produced by paper mills. Interesting study in @jclinepi.bsky.social #academicsky #episky #medsky #Skystats Thanks to @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social for initially posting this on Linkedin!

Join us 3/26/26 from 10:30a to Noon to hear Dr. John Jackson present, "Using Causal Decomposition Analysis to Identify Points of Intervention to Reduce Mental Health Disparities" at the next Advanced Methods for Mental Health Services Research Webinar. Register Here: jhjhm.zoom.us/webinar/regi....

The critique of unmeasured confounding is often levied in a lazy/broad way. It is trivially true in any observational study. But if the critic can't think of a plausible such confounder and posit a reasonable direction/magnitude of its bias then they're not doing productive science.

Any suggestions as to great resources (lectures on YouTube, short didactic papers etc), to teach novice researchers about RCTs? Design, endpoints, consent, eligibility criteria, IRB etc etc any and all of it.

#stats Here's a nifty interactive demo of confidence intervals by Kristoffer Magnusson rpsychologist.com/d3/ci/

Grading some real analysis homework and someone wrote "-M is the l.u.b. ......(of my life)" has be absolutely cackling. Maybe its bc am over-tired from being a mentor/judge for a 48hr Med/AI hackathon over the weekend, or maybe its bc I am stuck in Ithaca for an extra 2 days due to a snow storm