Doug Altman - an eternal inspiration for all medical statisticians and non-statistician medical researchers. #StatsSky #Statistics

End of year reminder: the TRIPOD+AI reporting guideline is reporting standard for all clinical prediction model studies, including those using machine learning and AI. --> www.bmj.com/content/385/...

"The making of a statistician: Doug Altman" - just published in @bmj.com celebrating his 1 million citations and reflecting on his remarkable career and legacy. One of the most influential statisticians in modern medical research. --> www.bmj.com/content/391/... #BMJChristmas #methodologymatters

Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...

ICYMI: "Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations" --> bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/4/1/... #machinelearning #digitalhealth #predictionmodels #methodsmatter

"How can funders avoid crossing the Szilard point?" The Szilard point is "the threshold at which the total cost of competing for a grant equals (or surpasses) the value of the available funding."

Doug Altman was an internationally renowned statistician who served as The BMJ’s chief statistical adviser. Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire" #BMJChristmas www.bmj.com/content/391/...

ICYMI: NEW PAPER "Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance" --> doi.org/10.1016/j.la... #AI #Machinelearning #predictiveAI

NEW PAPER: A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - part 2: time-to-event outcomes * Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions rdcu.be/eUVam

Our guidance regarding performance measures for medical AI models is finally out! - Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things - Calibration and clinical utility are key - Show risk distributions - Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Machine learning has developed remarkable new ideas about how to develop prediction algorithms. But always baffled me why the field had to reinvent how to evaluate models. Here we show F score should not be used to evaluate medical prediction models link.springer.com/epdf/10.1186...

NEW PAPER The use of explainable AI in healthcare evaluated using the well known Explain, Predict and Describe taxonomy by Galit Shmueli link.springer.com/article/10.1...

What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma. It's *scientific publishing*. We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing. Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_... Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇

NEW PAPER: "Reporting guidelines for studies involving generative artificial intelligence applications: what do I use, and when?" --> www.nature.com/articles/s41... #HealthTech #ClinicalAI #MachineLearning #MedAI #AIinMedicine #TransparentAI #HealthInnovation #GenAI

Periodic reminder....😀 #Transparency is one of the six core principles underpinning the WHO guidance on #ethics and #governance of #ArtificialIntelligence for health --> who.int/publications... Important to adhere to the TRIPOD+AI reporting standards🙏 --> bmj.com/content/385/... #trustworthyAI

NEW paper "Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations" --> tinyurl.com/2h2mcy5h #machinelearning #prediction #statssky #MLsky #methodsmatter

Health tests on the high street: Convenient or confusing? Public Webinar 🗓️ Tuesday 14 October THIS EVENING 6-7pm Register here www.eventbrite.com/e/health-tes... This evening, we are presenting the findings of our evaluations of supermarket self tests, summarising our BMJ papers

Giving a talk today which anyone can watch online: 1pm - 2pm "The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models" - intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research) imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Peer review of prediction model studies in oncology needs improvement: a systematic review of open peer review reports from BMC journals - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...

Saddened to hear of the passing of Drummond Rennie, a quite influential figure. retractionwatch.com/2025/09/15/d...

NEW PAPER "The STARD-AI reporting guideline for diagnostic accuracy studies using #artificialintelligence" --> www.nature.com/articles/s41... #machinelearning #MLsky #statssky #digitalhealth #transparency

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... INSPECT-SR: A tool for assessing trustworthiness of randomised controlled trials.

Job available for a statistician to work on a clinical trials methodology project on improving statistical methods for paediatric cancer ttrials. Cancer Research UK Clinical Trials Unit, University of Birmingham Closes 22 September edzz.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

📌 The SPIRIT 2025 statement updates the guidelines for randomized trial protocols to enhance their completeness, transparency, and consistency, benefiting stakeholders involved in clinical research. ja.ma/4fzMVZS

Reporting guideline for chatbot health advice studies: the Chatbot Assessment Reporting Tool (CHART) statement bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/... #llms #chatbots #bioinformatics #healthcare

UKRI award rate halves in seven years as grant applications double. www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-r...

NEW PAPER: the CHART reporting guideline for studies evaluating generative AI models like #ChatGPT & other #LLMs for providing health advice --> bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/... The explanation & elaboration paper --> www.bmj.com/content/390/... #genAI #chatbots #healthadvice #reporting

New paper in BMJ (Research Methods & Reporting): “Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide” led by Pedro Lopez-Ayala & Tobias Zimmermann with & myself www.bmj.com/content/390/...

Many high street health tests are unfit for purpose and need greater regulation, warn researchers in two studies. These studies highlight issues over accuracy and suitability for public use, they say www.bmj.com/content/390/... www.bmj.com/content/390/...

Post just up: Is multiple imputation making up information? tldr: no. Includes a cheeky simulation study to demonstrate the point. open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...

This article provides an overview of the current state of handling continuous variables in healthcare research. It discusses the potential limitations of assuming a linear relationship between independent and dependent variables www.bmj.com/content/390/...

NEW PAPER in @bmj.com "Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide" --> www.bmj.com/content/390/... #methodologymatters #StatsSky #EpiSky

**NEW OPEN-ACCESS PAPER** “A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk—part 1: binary outcomes" - published in Diagnostic & Prognostic Research - implemented in pmstabilityss 1/n

NEW PAPER in @jclinepi.bsky.social looking at the content of open peer-review reports of RCTs in the field of oncology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089... Peer review reports [...] were short (median 276 words), superficial, and rarely constructive #metascience #peerreview #RCTs

Very nice summary of the confusing and often ill-posed metrics.

* New preprint led by Joao Matos & @gscollins.bsky.social "Critical Appraisal of Fairness Metrics in Clinical Predictive AI" - Important, rapidly growing area - But confusion exists - 62 fairness metrics identified so far - Better standards & metrics needed for healthcare arxiv.org/abs/2506.17035

NEW PREPRINT "Critical Appraisal of Fairness Metrics in Clinical Predictive AI" -> arxiv.org/abs/2506.17035 We identified 62 fairness metrics (and growing) - unsurprisingly it's all a bit of a mess...with most metrics not fit for purpose #predictiveAI #fairness #machinelearning #StatsSky #MLSky

And the exciting announcement! The 9th WCRI is set to take place in Vancouver, Canada, in 2026! Look forward to seeing you all there!

For researchers with limited background in statistics, we have written this gentle introduction to simulation studies (with @timpmorris.bsky.social and other people from the STRATOS initiative): bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/1...

REF 2029: splitting staff from outputs ‘distressing’ in jobs crisis. Decision to hold fast on portability prompts criticism over potential impact on early career researchers. One of our most-read articles this week. www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-r...

Medical research is special because it's too often led by high-status novices that don't know they are novices. The worst of these are also arrogant and insecure. Literally everyone else involved in the research has to work around these people. Good morning! 😀 (ICYMI)

The CONSORT 2025 Statement is here. Essential reading for those involved in the reporting & reviewing of randomized trials. We're proud to see so many #UKCTUNetwork units & individual researchers contributing to this crucial update! 🔗 tinyurl.com/yc3cbh33 #CONSORT2025 #ResearchTransparency

At #CCR25, we saw some trials use a #CompositeOutcome (an endpoint that combines more than one outcome into a single measure) & also saw some of the problems these can throw up. I have discussed these before but thought it would be useful to revisit 1/9 #MethodologyMonday #120

Authors, editors, reviewers, and other potential users should use CONSORT 2025 when writing and evaluating manuscripts of randomized trials to ensure that trial reports are clear and transparent. Learn more in this Special Communication. https://ja.ma/3TlnKQe

How long is acceptable for a journal to make a decision on whether to even review your article? We've got an article under submission for 5 weeks now, and still 'With Editor' for deciding whether to send out for review Surely too long (journal even promises 'quick turnaround for initial decision')

Do Large Language Models (Really) Need Statistical Foundations? arxiv.org/abs/2505.19145 #llms #statistics #artificialintelligence

🆕New CONSORT & SPIRIT 2025 Guidelines Our colleagues helped shape these updates, making #ClinicalTrial reporting more transparent & useful for everyone. Key changes: ✔️More open science ✔️Better reporting of harms & missing data ✔️Greater harmonisation between guidelines More info: buff.ly/HC1rx31

Is anyone willing to share their experiences of submitting to the new RSS journal, Data Science & AI? Thanks 🙏 academic.oup.com/rssdat

Item 10 of the TRIPOD+AI asks (www.bmj.com/content/385/...) "Explain how the study size was arrived at, and justify that the study size was sufficient to answer the research question. Include details of any sample size calculation" Here's why it's important 👇