At this point traders are being crushed under the weight of the Fell For It Again awards theyve accrued

This week, Trump painted a more dire picture of Iran's situation, saying “their economy is crashing,” their currency is “worthless” and "their missiles are mostly decimated." But U.S. intelligence offers a much more sobering assessment:

U.S. intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers & about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles, per a U.S. official. The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities & repair damaged missiles

Wow I cant believe all the "itll be over tomorrow!" people in the Trump admin are full of shit. Who could have forseen this.

I dont have any extra insight vs the next person, but i think what we've seen of voter sentiment/behavior not just now but over the last several years tells us that whats happening rn isnt a mirage or a temp thing. This isnt year 2 or even 6 of Trump—its year 10. And a lot of ppl are v tired of it.

We dont really have to wonder about this. We saw a significant price rise for gasoline in 2022, topping out around $5/gallon. It came down during the back half of the year & voters economic sentiment stayed bad. Dont see a lot of reason to suspect that theyd respond too differently now.

Congressional Democrats have launched an investigation into whether Trump's pardons were driven by "pay-to-play dynamics."

Gas prices have hit another new high, averaging $4.56 a gallon, according to AAA. 81% of Americans say they're feeling a financial strain because of the cost of gas, according to a new NPR/PBS/Marist poll.

“I live in constant fear that I will be subjected to further baseless detentions just for going about my daily life." On May 2, Leonardo Garcia Venegas, a Florida-born US citizen, was detained by ICE in Alabama for the third time (!) in the span of a year. And he's suing the federal government.

On Earth 2, President Harris has middling approvals amid complaints that prices have come down but not enough for peoples tastes. Republicans & news media claim we'd be better off under a Trump II presidency & all I wanna do is invent a technology to hop universes & show them that no they wouldnt be

It seems like a lot of news media and the financial world cant come to grips with this either. Just a fundamental inability to understand that ppl other than Donald Trump exist and have agency in situations like these.

🤔Blowing up the alliance with Saudi Arabia to.. own the libs?

Good to know this nonsense cope behavior isnt limited to American traders

“.. Inventories for both motor gasoline and distillate fuels (e.g. diesel, heating oil, etc.) are declining faster than the seasonal trend, both at or near 10-year lows.” ⛽️ (via SoFi)

WaPo-ABC-Ipsos poll: 87% of Americans have a negative view of Trump's social post appearing to depict himself as Jesus 69% dislike Pete Hegseth praying at the Pentagon for 'overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy'

The full context for this quote was given the costs associated with horse-race coverage, when you put a race in the context of probabilistic prediction, you need to have a good reason. Statistical forecasting is useful as a way to explain that polls are not perfect. Markets are just profit machines

Is the Strait of Hormuz open? You be the judge:

Someone is insider trading on crude oil shorts using Iran War announcements from the White House…and making a LOT of money. You better bet we’ll be investigating ⬇️

* SHELL CEO SAYS WE HAVE DUG OURSELVES A HOLE CLOSE TO A BILLION BBLS OF CRUDE SHORTAGE, HOLE DEEPENING EVERY DAY * SHELL CEO SAYS WE ARE SEEING DEMAND CURTAILMENT OF ABOUT 5% IN AREAS LIKE JET, AIRLINE INDUSTRY @reuters.com

Holy shit it's really happening: The MTA is gonna pick a contractor to renovate the notorious Chambers Street J/Z station nyc.streetsblog.org/2026/05/07/o...

There is a surprisingly easy pattern journalism is learning to follow with this administration: write an article about the tip of the iceberg, wait for the administration's players to loudly deny it, and then publish the rest of the iceberg. Free advertising. www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

Wall Street continuing to just whistle past the graveyard on this war

BREAKING: Rhode Island Hospital is appealing Judge Reed O'Connor's order enforcing DOJ's subpoena seeking invasive information about trans minor patients and has asked O'Connor to stay his ruling by Friday. Background: www.lawdork.com/i/196237187/...

"One no longer needs to be a Bill Clinton or Kamala Harris to engender rabid fandoms or anti-fandoms. You no longer have to be a Kennedy to find yourself at the center of the deranged conspiracism of total strangers." www.liberalcurrents.com/the-parasoci...

Not a single one of the people complaining about a thing Walz didn't do would ever, in a million years, allow themselves to say a positive thing about Schumer or Jeffries or any Dem who isn't Mamdani or AOC.

Part of what's so galling about the whole "they stopped saying 'weird'" discourse is that the people most likely to indulge it are the exact same people who absolutely refuse to amplify Democratic talking points *right now,* in real time, because they would get looked down on by their mutuals.

Page One. @wsj.com

This is really no less than what Donald Trump—one of the biggest pushers of conspiracy theories there is—deserves

Nobody in Washington can imagine that anyone exists except Donald Trump.

"The biggest obstacle to water being dry is the fact that it is wet."

I know no one wants to think about Sinema any more, but I think she was a canary in the coal mine for something that didn't particularly used to exist but I think will get commoner: the Senate one term wonder

Protesters are singing civil rights songs in the Tennessee Senate State and Local Government Committee.

“.. hyperscalers’ earnings growth this quarter was boosted by an unusually large contribution from equity stakes in private companies .. another sign of just how comically codependent the AI tech industry has become.” @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/be97...

Calling it now: this site is going to be uniquely bad at handling an unfolding story of a dangerous virus. Just gonna be full on cognito hazard and doomer spirals from huge chunks of the user base.

Interview about journalism and prediction markets in the Columbia Journalism Review this AM. Many in the media are using this new “forecast” data incredibly irresponsibly, and are failing to wrestle with the ethics of the companies they are dealing with www.cjr.org/tow_center/a...

Some of the data center discourse on here is pretty wild. I assure you that data centers existed before AI, before Palantir, or even Facebook. They are actual buildings - not a "marketing term".

“We follow, worship, and loathe everyday strangers—because, ultimately, the two-way relationship is frequently illusory. We don’t really know most of the people with whom we interact and perform online. And we have all become ourselves characters to whom someone else could form the same attachments”

The federal government has turned over evidence from the shooting death of Renee Good by ICE agent Jonathan Ross to a magistrate judge in U.S. District Court for Minnesota, according to an attorney involved in a case tangential to Ross. www.startribune.com/federal-gove...

still thinking about that Goldman Sachs “analysis” that predicted we would be at 120% of normal traffic in the strait of Hormuz by now

Things continue to look more and more bleak for the GOP by the day....

The way that Republicans gain social capital with other Republicans is attacking Democrats. The way that Democrats gain social capital with other Democrats is attacking Democrats.

The shamelessness of Republicans truly never ceases to astonish. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/n...

The South Carolina Senate president went on record recently saying he was against this, but Trump is threatening him. Unlike Tennessee, this is one of the states where a dummymander really is possible (SC-01 is mildly competitive as it is).

oh gosh, what happened to the one page memo everyone was so hype about this morning?

lol Trump is an incredibly weak pushover and everyone knows it

NEW: DOJ can retain the 2020 election ballots it seized from Fulton County a federal judge ruled tonight, finding the seizure — while flawed — fell short of the “callous disregard” required to order the records returned. www.politico.com/news/2026/05...

Fuck off directly into the fucking sun, John

She's had shaking hands for awhile at this point. Visible in basically any video of her these days. Sounds like whatever this was was significantly worse though.