FWIW the Kalshi order book is not actually *that* deep. If you wanted to bid "Trump out before 2027" from 18% to 30%, it'd be around $7500. [not investment advice. do not do this. but like, you *could*]

by Bircher standards, this is in fact very normal, yes

I! I believe! I believe that! I believe that it! I believe that it will happen! I believe that it will happen! I believe that it will happen!

There's apparently a specific noise historians make when they find out how legal scholarship gets published.

Translating Davos speak www.ft.com/content/ab4f...

This graph makes me want to cry.

New Haven ppl should be advised that that new Yemeni coffee shop (Arwa) absolutely whips ass

I think the moment I fully lost it with American elite culture was when there was a no-shit bipartisan panic attack over Colorado throwing Trump off the 2024 ballot because of this stipulation

The existence of these people in large numbers is basically a self-censoring fact. The left doesn't want to acknowledge them for basic omnicause reasons, the center because it implies there are cross-pressured voters who could be won by moving left on Israel/Palestine.

But my neighborhood is better for having brick oven pizzas and craft breweries

But also yeah my neighborhood is better for having nice shit in it and being a relatively functional multiethnic place. That's not limited to the North, nor is it everywhere up here. Dixie isn't a place so much anymore, it's a state of mind that needs to die.

Some of you are telling “Go Miami!” Or “Go Indiana!” but I’m yelling “Go to Union Station with the bus full of passengers or lose your job!”

i think this MLK day the thing to focus on is the strategic focus and tactical brilliance of the civil rights movement and the way it was laser focused on a set of achievable goals

Nuanced take: I think it's really important to give *normal citizens* who supported Trump and off-ramp and *professional writers, pundits and politicians* who supported Trump should have to wear it like a scarlet letter for the rest of their lives

the thing is if you want a university orientated around the classical curriculum and the Great Books, St John's already exists! but what they wanted was somewhere where they could be intellectually fellated 24/7. this is the opposite of an actual classical education, which should be humbling.

i'm fucking dead

Everyone uses this meme when POTUS "implements his agenda," but it was made for Kyrsten Sinema simultaneously being both a US Senator and a horny bisexual chaos demon

Nobody that can stomach living in these towns has ever had an insightful thought in their lives. These places are crucibles where only the dullest and most ignorant can survive. The ones that hang out in bars all day are especially stupid, spending all day holding court with other morons.

This is gonna sound harsh but you gotta stop talking to these hicks out in bumfuck towns. I know these people. They know less than nothing, it all comes from newsmax and facebook. They live in a fantasy world and everything they have is because of the cities they hate. They aren’t real Americans.

Everyone who is politically attentive should canvas at least once if for no reason other than to see firsthand how utterly incoherent the politics of the modal American are. "Homer Simpson webpage" incoherent is the baseline and it either pleasantly surprises you or deeply horrifies you from there.

While many of you are likely yelling "GO SOCIAL CONSERVATISM" or "GO CHILDCARE SUBSIDIES!" I'm yelling "GO VAT CHILDREN!"

Price stability and maximum employment, I whisper as I pick up the rifle of my fallen comrade

When NIMBYs say that California is full and their cities can’t accommodate more housing, they are saying that queer people trying to get out of red states are on their own.

okay I'm actually serious this time

hell yeah

more and more people are saying that radical social democracy with RAND corporation characteristics is the wave of the future

We’re often wrong to console ourselves that the poor in Trump’s base vote against their own interests. Financial wellbeing is merely one kind of interest. They know what they’re voting for.

I grew up around hordes of guys like young poor JD Vance and then I went to college with hordes of guys like petulant striver JD Vance. I can tell you both groups are consistently prepared to endorse violence when a “fucking bitch” doesn’t obey. The difference is merely decorum.

I would basically be fine with a system where (1) you have to present yourself at a specific location and get in a physical orderly line; (2) you have to submit to a background check; and (3) if you pass the background check, you are cleared to enter with a six month renewable work permit

You are obligated to watch the video *iff* you have any remaining empathy toward the people who voted for this. You are also obligated to show it to anyone in your social circle for whom this is true.

truly tragic that calling him Governor Reddit is at this point doing Reddit dirty

many such cases

In fairness, these people are still the core of the antivax movement. They just moved to Idaho and started voting Republican

jg ballard

He's been identified as Jonathan Ross. www.startribune.com/ice-agent-wh...

Don't have much to say that hasn't been said already. But it's vital, esp with less engaged ppl, to maintain the separation between "abolish police/prisons" (deranged), "abolish borders" (normatively good but politically DOA), and "abolish ICE" (winnable/the literal state of affairs 23 years ago)

I am really sorry for the faculty there, but Texas A&M should lose accreditation.

Cool and good that we’ve made the word “eugenics” functionally meaninglessness at the same time “Let measles rip and purge the weak” became official government policy.

Gonna try to be less online today because I have another draft to finish

hearing about the CSAM shit ongoing on X and im slowly coming around to "well, it's nice they're already building camps for us to repurpose" as an unironic position for groypers

Doing a last minute day trip to NYC, because gf needs a specific book and it'll take too long to get it at the Yale library

i think that the tragedy of the Scott Alexander extended universe is that one interpretation of rationalism is a group of people that wanted to come up with a utopian online environment that wasn't subject to these kinds of forum dynamics

if you call for doxxing someone *who you then go on to misgender* because they offered an explanation of something *that is not an endorsement*, i don't think you should be allowed to use this website, and if you follow someone who does that, i think worse of you as a person [sad trombone noise]

Was Jared Polis was always like this? Or do I just have rose-colored glasses because he was my congressman the first time I moved to a blue area?

the other tech companies working on AI will — not now, but eventually — regret having chosen not to draw a bright line between what musk is doing and what they're doing, and google, of all companies, really should know this firsthand, given how much tesla's self-driving informs opinions about waymo

For CFTs specifically, I'd probably say: 1. Celestial holography, but like, from the CFT side 2. Rigidity/uniqueness of conformal data 3. Better tools for bootstrapping gauge theories 4. Fractional N_f and fractional d 5. Conformal blocks in odd dimensions

It’s not even the Nazi bar analogy anymore, it’s like if the owner of the Nazi bar succeeded in murdering hundreds of thousands of people and now installed a machine that produces CSAM on demand. It’s insane that people are still on there.

it's about oil (superstructure), not oil (base), to put it in marxo terms