New preprint! So, what's a multiverse analysis good for anyway?> With @jessicahullman.bsky.social and @statmodeling.bsky.social juliarohrer.com/wp-content/u...

Our paper on improving statistical reporting in psychology is now online 🎉 As a part of this paper, we also created the Transparent Statistical Reporting in Psychology checklist, which researchers can use to improve their statistical reporting practices www.nature.com/articles/s44...

“Google's strategic transformation into an AI-first company fundamentally conflicts with maintaining niche academic services like Scholar”

You are a Post-Padawan now!

In general I think it's hard to combat scientific misinformation when some of the best research is locked behind an academic paywall, while lots of nonsense gets published free for everyone to read in predatory journals.

The TARGET reporting guidelines for target trial emulation studies have arrived! #EpiSky #CausalSky jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Folks, always share your code. It doesn’t have to be perfect to be helpful. And if you feel that it’s still too messy or not sufficiently clean to be shared, you shouldn’t submit yet. After all, there could be mistakes in your mess.

Assistant or Associate Professor in Epidemiology Montreal, Quebec, Canada United States #Epijobs careers.apha.org/jobs/2125722...

Just discovered this excellent paper on mediation analysis in Psych Methods. The focus defining various effects; I really appreciate how the authors contrast the "traditional" approach with "causal" mediation analysis. Great job picking up readers where they are! www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Hot off the press! 📣📣In this tutorial we illustrate available multiple imputation approaches for handling longitudinal data including when they are clustered within higher level clusters. A reproducible example with R and Stata code provided! #OpenAccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

New research alert! Our study investigates the effectiveness of human-only, AI-assisted, and AI-led teams in assessing the reproducibility of quantitative social science research. We've got some surprising findings!

A strong contender, at least: arxiv.org/abs/2405.08675

📣 Do you want to learn about recent advances in causal inference? Colleagues at INSERM are organising a workshop gathering international experts in the field. Bonus: it's happening in two amazing locations 🌇🇫🇷

NEW PREPRINT A detailed overview of 32 popular predictive performance metrics for prediction models arxiv.org/abs/2412.10288

best I got for Schrodinger's regression

The "Leaky prognostic model adoption pipeline" by @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social and colleagues is probably one of my most used figures when discussing building useful clinical prediction models. See the full paper here: publications.ersnet.org/content/erj/... #MLSky #stats #rstats #statistics

Was recently reminded of David Hand's alternative missing data taxonomy renaming the (in)famous taxonomy MCAR/MAR/MNAR by Donald Rubin to NDD/SDD/UDD. I am not generally a fan of renaming things, but this might be the exception Source: rss.org.uk/training-eve...

You can't understand what tx effects can be estimated using clinical RCTs without understanding the REAL-WORLD context that clinical RCTs are conducted in. How patients are enrolled, and how medicines are "approved" are critical parts of this context. (ICYMI) statsepi.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

Since I have new followers, time to re-up this: do you want to use my textbook (EPIDEMIOLOGY BY DESIGN) to teach? I have materials to share! I will give you lecture notes and exercises and exams and more!!

There are so many people out there trying to "fix" how we teach statistics and statistical thinking. Here is just one of many many examples. Empower them! Sure, it costs money to revamp curricula, but we do it all the time in medicine. Why not for stats!? www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

If you're looking for a spoOoOoOoky epidemiology paper for Halloween, might I recommend this one TLDR: the Kaplan-Meier estimator (with late entries) is haunted www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles...

Every so often I'm reminded that a few of my tweets were included in a scientific paper and I'm still not exactly sure how I feel about that. trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

Words cannot describe how wonderful libraries are. They are true treasure of society. The fact that they are getting their funding cut so police forces can have tanks and tactical gear is a true crime against culture. Libraries are one of the greatest things in earth, no hyperbole.

"A random half of panelists were shown a CV and only a one-paragraph summary of the proposed research, while the other half were shown a CV and a full proposal. We find that withholding proposal texts from panelists did not detectibly impact their proposal rankings" link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Great post here. Touches on so many interesting points about causal inference, estimands, development of methods, operator skill, etc. I encourage people who work on methods to read it! @dingdingpeng.the100.ci www.the100.ci/2024/04/13/i...

Do you think that learning more about causal inference is not worth it because you're running experiments anyway, or because you're interested in predictive questions? In that case, I've written a paper just for you, out now in SPPC: compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Periodic reminder, episky medsky! If you teach epidemiology and might be interested in using my textbook (EPIDEMIOLOGY BY DESIGN) -- I will send you ALL MY TEACHING MATERIALS (lecture slides; practice problems; exercises; exams + keys; sample syllabi...) Just ask! And also --

“Neutral Comparison Studies in Methodological Research” Our special collection appeared in Biometrical Journal is now complete! Thanks to all authors and reviewers! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1... 1/n

Thank god for @khoavuumn.bsky.social

First substack post of the year! It's on simulation studies and reviews of methodology. tpmorris.substack.com/p/simulation...

Personal reflection: "Clinical prediction models & the multiverse of madness" Thanks to BMC Medicine for 'getting this' Many reviewers/Eds pushed for writing style & tone changes This thread delves into this & why we stuck to our original vision bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.... 1/n

 We argue that there is a replication crisis in methodological research, see this magazine style paper for an overview: rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.... 2/4

I'm not saying you can't possibly generate a worthwhile hypothesis from your data. I'm just saying that generating a hypothesis from the entirety of human knowledge that preceded your data is a much safer bet.

Here is a 1-page summary for your wall This talk is based on our Christmas article from 2022 t.co/y4GVFmTOfs

🎉 Thrilled to share that our manuscript on natural experiments has just been accepted at AMPPS! with @dingdingpeng.the100.ci Adam Ayaita @ruben.the100.ci @p-hunermund.com @azwpsy.bsky.social Susanne Bücker, Sven Rieger, Sandrine Müller, and Tobias Ebert! osf.io/preprints/ps...

I've been told my stats/ML work is readable as an insult. That if my methods are easy to understand, the work itself is perceived as easy. Writing technical work that is understandable is harder than making it incomprehensible! Being incomprehensible can also be a facade for lack of actual novelty

Great accessible paper on causal inference methods here. Absolutely brilliant R code in the associated github repo too github.com/ArthurChatton/CausalCookbook Chapeau @achatton.bsky.social @dingdingpeng.bsky.social One for Episky folks

New preprint! There are lots of interesting estimators that can be used to target causal effects, some of which aren't well-known in psychology. Arthur Chatton and I provide a (gentle) introduction to approaches commonly used in epidemiology: psyarxiv.com/k2gzp