“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules. Thread:

1/ The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) leaked yesterday. The draft is still very raw: major provisions are missing, placeholders run throughout, and key annexes are empty or absent. This is clearly not the final word ahead of its presentation on 29 Jan – more below.

Our outlook for the year is out, with key things to watch in 2026. I look at the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act and why lead markets & european preference will be central to the EU's clean tech push. The full outlook by our great team: bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th... @bst-europe.bsky.social

Mein Blick auf den MFR Vorschlag der Kommission für das ACI Quarterly: weniger Programme, mehr Wirkung, gezielte Investitionen in Wettbewerbsfähigkeit & mehr Flexibilität. 2026 wird ein Schlüsseljahr in den MFR-Verhandlungen. audit-committee-institute.de/html/de/quar... @bst-europe.bsky.social

So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have. How so? Short thread:

Very insightful thread on why a reparations loan would be the most viable solution to the Ukraine financing problem.

Great to talk to @kirataylor.bsky.social about our paper on the challenges for European clean tech: listen to our chat on the Foresight Jolt podcast (a must listen, always!): foresightmedia.com/story/srolvn...

For electric vehicles transatlantic divergence is even more stark (left hand panel) The US is essentially closed to Chinese EVs - given the 100% tariff and a de facto ban (US rules to prohibit the import of connected vehicle hardware and software systems). The EU imports a lot of Chinese EVs.

The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵

News from the best EU economic policy collaboration in town with @bertelsmannst.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. This time @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and @ph-jaeg.bsky.social look into cleantech challenges and how to tackle them.

Europe’s clean tech industry is caught between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity, and EU producers are in trouble. A new policy brief by @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social plots a path forward ➡️ bst-europe.eu/competitiven...

Faced with China's distortions, US tariffs, and the IRA rollback, should the EU stay in the clean tech race or throw in the towel? A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question. By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger

New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social. We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:

New analysis with @cdgeiser.bsky.social: The EU’s current drive to cut red tape at all costs is weakening Europe. Last week’s failed vote on the Sustainability Omnibus in the European Parliament was the culmination of extreme pressure, poorly designed proposals and political polarisation. Thread:

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Thought-provoking piece by Bloomberg. With some points from my work. The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. 🧵

Die Bundesregierung sagt, Sie könne den Kommissions-Vorschlag zum neuen EU-Haushalt nicht akzeptieren, weil ein "umfassender Aufwuchs" in Zeiten der Konsolidierung nationaler Haushalte nicht vermittelbar sei. Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:

Last I checked, the EU was highly regulated a decade ago too, when German automakers were dominant. Last I checked, Chinas car sector gained global prominence thanks to a web of tariffs, subsidies, forced tech transfer and gov innovation support. How’s EU regulation to blame?

It seems that the Commission will indeed propose one big fund to cover all existing structural funds and the CAP and to organise the payout from this fund via a single national plan That would mean a huge departure from how the EU budget and the MFF negotiations have worked so far. Here is why:

The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive. Thread:

1/ The leak for the European Competitiveness Fund has just been made public. Here's a breakdown of the main elements of the proposal. As expected, the COM proposes consolidating several of its directly managed programmes. The draft points to 12/14 programmes merged under a single legal framework

Wer Lust hat, in einem tollen Team an EU-Finanzpolitik zu arbeiten! Wir suchen einen Project Manager für das Europa-Team der Bertelsmann Stiftung. jobsearch.createyourowncareer.com/BertelsmannS...

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10% across the board seems to be EU‘s best case scenario now - wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with something considerably worse, especially if there is no credible signal on retaliation if this doesn’t hold. UK has been there and done that with steel and alu.

The pretty concise position paper of the new German government on the next long term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. It lends clear support to the Commission's bold reform ideas on the MFF architecture while unsurprisingly also remaining German in a few crucial areas. Here are the main elements:

New Policy Brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social with recommendations for a smart European Competitiveness Fund: Clear scope, full toolbox, agile governance—read more here: bst-europe.eu/competitiven...

1/ The EU wants to bundle R&I funding into a new Competitiveness Fund (ECF). The idea: less fragmentation, more strategic focus. The ambition is right. But whether the ECF delivers will depend entirely on how it's designed. Here are four principles that should guide it. bst-europe.eu?p=38401&prev...