New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >

Don't forget to remind the Stephen Miller types that tomorrow is Independence Day, not Independent and Identically Distributed day.

Who else here is going to be at ICML in Seoul and might be up for talking causal? (Also feel free to plug your talk in the comments!) Info on my talk/workshop is here: sites.google.com/view/philmli...

RIP Robert Thurman. Back when I took his Indo-Tibetan Buddhism course at Columbia, my roomate Ben Stern did an epic remix of one of this recorded lectures. drive.google.com/file/d/1v7iL... www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/u...

No ChatGPT, I don't need you to tell me that I'm influenced by Herbert Simon :).

What are the implications of the fact that social media hooked us by making us anxious and depressed, while LLMs seem optimized to make us over-confident and manic? Any good discussions of this?

If you've been thinking of reading @add-hawk.bsky.social's the score, go ahead and do so. It's an extremely pleasurable read, without a wasted page. I'd like to consider one (AI-related) nuance that perhaps gets lost in his discussion of objectivity... www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/735252...

Selected papers: Homeostasis: tinyurl.com/342rmsth Discrimination: tinyurl.com/yscv658e Timescale: tinyurl.com/2rpj7874 DCMs: tinyurl.com/2s3p2wuh Mediation: tinyurl.com/3hz3rca8 Faithfulness: tinyurl.com/3n3de87m Causation and Time: tinyurl.com/58cfcw2r Psychometrics: tinyurl.com/ynjaf5xv

Try it again with an Oxford comma?

It's a relatively new course I give called Causal Thinking where the goal is to help them reason about whether or not the causal assumptions they rely on are satisfied and also how to reason when they are not satisfied. Basically I'm trying to address this gap: bsky.app/profile/jere...

Thanks to Will for the shout out. I had a great time at the @applied-causal-graphs.de conference, which really made me optimistic about the quality of causal work being done. That I got to give a keynote there is something I still need to wrap my head around, but I'm glad it was so well received.

Should you be interested in a a less 'dude, where's my equilibrium' approach to dags, I can recommend @dagophile.bsky.social's 2020, 2021, and forthcoming on homeostasis and causal control. We just got a great keynote from him at @applied-causal-graphs.de on those topics.

I’ve just finished this in the past week, but this is easily the best online course/series of lectures I’ve done. I’d tried it in a prior year and fallen on the wayside a bit, and I found the 2026 version with the split beginner/intermediate lectures much more approachable. Would recommend!!

This Thursday at noon I'll be presenting work on causation in physics at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. Feel free to join if you're around. www.philosophie.lmu.de/mcmp/en/late...

Mindscape 354 | Christian List @clist.bsky.social on Free Will and Levels of Reality. #MindscapePodcast www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2026...

This Thursday at noon I'll be presenting work on causation in physics at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. Feel free to join if you're around. www.philosophie.lmu.de/mcmp/en/late...

New collider bias example just dropped

Wimsatt: Perhaps, just perhaps, the best explanation of a phenomenon at a given level is to be found at the same level. Kendler: Noone would seek to explain hypertension at the level of quarks. A few of my favourite papers on this topic of absurd biological reductionism: 🧵

Transportability is by far the most ambitious concept I've covered to date. Feedback welcome! youtu.be/qD1X7IK1HQ0

C'mon gmail, be cool!

New video on how to generalize experimental results -- Why it’s hard to characterize the problem within standard causal models, how the transportability framework of Bareinboim and Pearl helps, and why extrapolation ultimately goes beyond transportability. youtu.be/qD1X7IK1HQ0

New BJPS Short Read! When are interventions evidence for their non-effects? Reuben Stern on correlation, causation, and choice www.thebsps.org/short-reads/... #philsci #philsky

At some point I want write a paper titled "In defense of the naive view". I don't yet know which naive view I want to defend, but at least I've got a title!

I'm tremendously excited to be giving an invited talk at the upcoming ICML conference in Seoul. Feel free to reach out if you are going to be there, or know people who I might want to look out for. @icmlconf.bsky.social sites.google.com/view/philmli...

This is what it feels like every time I google how to get better sleep and I find advice like: “I used to have trouble falling asleep, but then I stopped drinking three cups of coffee right before going to bed”

Bah! When I was young we used to have to cut of the box tops and bring them to school…

From a 1-star review of The Giving Tree

Few people are aware of how much progress has been made against cancers. Leukemia is probably the most striking example. Before the 1970s, most children affected by leukemia would soon die from it. Now, most children in rich countries survive. ourworldindata.org/childhood-le...

Super thrilled that my article "Prosody" is now available to read in the Open Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science! oecs.mit.edu/pub/1w4cqquc... Thanks to @asifamajid.bsky.social and @mcxfrank.bsky.social for the opportunity and for creating such an amazing resource for our community!

Writing philosophy is like 'thought archaeology'--each rewrite and revision dregs up more and more of the underlying thought process that produced the text. Good but tiring!

😂

New BJPS Short Read! Why Does Causal Reasoning Work? Naftali Weinberger, Porter Williams & James Woodward on the role of worldly infrastructure www.thebsps.org/short-reads/... #philsci #philsky

Saving until I find a reason to include in a talk theonion.com/archaeologic...

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

Please share it when you can! I'm a coauthor on the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy entry on the paradox, and every few years we need to update it. plato.stanford.edu/entries/para...

Useful life hack from an expert on data collection

In the newest episode, I consider the debate over whether demographic variables such as race and gender are causes. In it, I clarify what's at stake, and what the answer does (and doesn't) depend on. youtu.be/UzpReyvtKDU?...

@rmcelreath.bsky.social has one of the best communicators of causal methodology, and philosophy of science would be immensely improved if his Bayesian stats textbook became standard reading in grad school. So if he endorses the newest episode, who am I to disagree :)

in case you've never seen it, this is Roger Ebert on The Mummy

I’m at a philosophy conference and it is WILD. You philosophers are fascinating people.

I philosophize about #AI. Nothing that I have written or will ever write will ever use it. Not bc I distrust it or bc I think it couldn’t do it. Just bc, to me, figuring out ways to do some of the things it could do is part of the beauty, privilege, fun and the point of what I do. #philtech

One thing you learn studying scientific social norms is how different norms are across the sciences and how often scientists think every field shares their norms.

This edition featuring keynotes by: Karoline Wiesner, Mats Stensrud & Naftali Weinberger (@dagophile.bsky.social)!

Folks, some news. No, not that kind of news – what do you think this is, LinkedIn? It's this: 1. The applied causal graphs workshop deadline is 28th Feb. so get your abstracts in and hang out with us in Potsdam this May. Form and description is below 2. @dagophile.bsky.social is giving a keynote 🥳

I'm having so much fun writing this paper! For too long I was too intimidated to engage in depth with the philosophy of physics literature, but since the general quality of work in it is so high, that eases the entry into the conversation.

Has anyone explored the possibility that the decline of the film industry is solely due to the irreplaceable loss of James Rebhorn in 2014? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R...

With the precision of a philosopher and the geekiness of a game-lover, Thi Nguyen shows how gaming has quietly colonized the rest of our lives. Required reading for understanding how values are being redefined through metrics, rankings, and scoring. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/735252...

So much stupid stuff happens when your institutions are motivated by the haunting fear that someone, somewhere is getting something they don't deserve.

I'm kind of fascinated by the attempt to tank the score on this (see the number of 1 scores). What corner of the internet is spearheading this? And am I just revealing my coastal liberal bubble when I wonder if it's a response to the coming out scene? Also,... www.imdb.com/title/tt2191...