Are you interested in seasonal forecasts and how they have advanced over the past two decades? Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Big for AI at the @metoffice.gov.uk Fastnet dropped on the arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2509.17658

🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨 Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Meet the motley crew of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences – ready to kick off the new academic year! 🌍👋 Special mention to our Head of School, Prof. Rob Wilson, who is cleverly disguised a a responsible adult (the T-shirt says it all) 😅🤦‍♂ www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...

It looks as if we're in for another autumn of attacks on climate action, with Reform and the Tories trying to blame decarbonisation for everything and The Times yesterday running sensationalist headlines about a falling belief in climate science. www.businessgreen.com/analysis/451...

Frozen chicken

Looks like it may be a mild and wet Autumn / early Winter for the UK and particularly Scotland 🙄. Probably depends quite a bit on the placement of that high over the Atlantic.

We need to talk about geoengineering ⚠️ In a rapidly warming world with looming net zero due dates, there's growing polarised debate about whether we should intervene in Earth’s natural systems. This is a thread about the state of polar geoengineering, and how we should be talking about it ⬇️ 🧵 1/6

What is forecast-based attribution? And did climate change influence the devastating monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, summer 2022? Find out from NCAS climate scientists @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social & @nickleach.bsky.social: ncas.ac.uk/climate-chan...

Machine Learning-based weather models have the potential to revolutionise global seasonal forecasting, according to new Met Office-led research. Get the full story below or check this short thread for the highlights 👇 🧵 @ai2.bsky.social | #WeatherIntelligence www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

A true pleasure to be visiting National Taiwan University this week, alongside Ioana Colfescu @ncas-uk.bsky.social, as part of our project on stratosphere-troposphere coupling & machine learning, funded jointly by @uniofstandrews.bsky.social & NTU. The hospitality and the food has been outstanding!

This map shows which year had the warmest summer on record, for mean temperature, area by area. Note that for many areas, it was summer 2025. 1976 is no longer the warmest summer on record for any area.

NEW Summer 2025 was the UK's hottest on record This year's average summer temperature of 16.1C was made around 70 times more likely because of climate change, the @metoffice.gov.uk has found www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

Summer 2025 will 'almost certainly' be the warmest on record for the UK, according to provisional data from the @metoffice.gov.uk This would mean that the 5 warmest summers for the UK will have all occurred since the year 2000, and the records go back to 1884. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

The UK's new normal is here: hotter and drier summers. The summer of 2025 will almost certainly be the warmest on record (we'll get confirmation next week). As this @metoffice.gov.uk graph shows, it looks set to break the record by a big margin too www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

It can be simultaneously true that individual AI prompts use minuscule amounts of energy, and also that the growth of AI in general threatens global progress on decarbonisation.

The moment that weather forecasting began climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-storm-...

Our recent paper @natgeosci.nature.com shows that over the Med, marine heatwaves are linked to subtropical ridges rather than atmospheric blocking, the typical cause of atmospheric heatwaves in central Europe. The brilliant ECRs Giulia Bonino and Ronan McAdam led this work! 🌊Link in the comments.

New paper in ASL on assessing temperature trends in Seasonal Forecasting systems by me, @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social Daniel Befort, Julia Lockwood and John Slattery. We find that 7 out of 8 systems overestimated global temperature trends rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... 🧵

Two postdoc jobs available on our Arctic Butterflies project! (Not actual butterflies - basically Arctic dynamics and predictability - the butterfly effect in the Arctic...) Oxford job: tinyurl.com/yc6h4b35 Reading job: tinyurl.com/ypn75jh2 Please help spread the word!

A warm day across the UK but look at the cooling effect of the sea along the coasts! istheukhotrightnow.com

1) 🔥 New research in Earth’s Future! We show that AI weather prediction models, combined with climate simulations, can be used to estimate the influence of human-made climate change on heatwaves. 👉 tinyurl.com/a5b5ndby @csic.es @igeociencias.bsky.social #ClimateChange #AI #Heatwaves

Not sure how many scientists here have tried Claude Code or similar command line coding assistants. I had a complicated family property tax problem that was best solved by a brute force Monte Carlo simulation approach, so I spent a few days coding up and analyzing a model with Claude Code.

🧵THREAD on agri-methane and ‘no additional warming’ Why is it so important to reduce methane (CH4) emissions from agriculture in the near term? What happens when countries like #Ireland use ‘no additional warming’ to set climate targets? PAPER: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... (1/18)

Will summer 2025 end with no Greenland High regime days? Forecasts suggest it might: simonleewx.com/ecmwf_north_.... This would put 2025 in the company of 2024 and 2018, and in stark contrast to 2023 and 2019.

Useful look at the dangers of overheating buildings - even modern ones - in London. This will just get more important. www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

NEW ANALYSIS: Wildfires have already scorched a UK-record land area in 2025, double the previous high – and 4x above average By Orla Dwyer, Ho Woo Nam + Tom Prater www.carbonbrief.org/...

A few years ago my colleague @codrinacretu.bsky.social wrote about the rise of Climate Inactivism which has, sadly, proven very astute. Rather than outright denying climate change, inactivists argue we just need to go slower. Gonna make a thread of some classic tells of an inactivist argument…

July has been a warm month, sunnier than average and a bit drier than average. Summer is continuing the warm trend from Spring. Here is a climate/weather summary for the past year. #dataviz #climatchange #globalwarming

Warning upgraded to Amber across much of Scotland for #StormFloris Potential for 90mph gusts in some areas BBC News - Amber warning issued ahead of Storm Floris www.bbc.com/news/article...

Once upon a time, not so long ago, people tweeted about the effect that climate change would have on food and coffee prices. Now it happened big time (take olive oil and coffee prices in my country), but it doesn't seem to be attributed to climate change by the public. It's bad, but it's "inflation"

Right then... A quick review of the DOE's new 'critical review' of climate science. Whether it's worth a formal community response - I'm still not sure, but here's my first thoughts /thread/

First it was Oasis, now the BBC and the Met Office are getting back together!

It is rather remarkable that one would write a report on the "Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate" and never once bother to show either measured historical or projected future changes in US mean temperature. Here's such a plot from the NCA for reference.

Job alert: we are looking for a postdoc to join the Atmospheric Dynamics group in Oxford to study Arctic atmospheric dynamics. The focus is on energy transfers between scales and implications for predictability. More details here: tinyurl.com/yc6h4b35

“Wait,” I said, before clicking the link. “What does Google have to do with earthquake emergency alerts in Turkey?” spoiler alert the answer is “giving us all a haunting glimpse into the privatization of science and emergency management”

This is fine -dot- gif

As the hosepipe ban kicks in over parts of Reading we look at how this summer so far compares to the UK’s infamous hot, dry summer of 1976 in this week’s @unirdg-met.bsky.social blog: blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...

How does the UK’s summer of 2025 compare to the legendary heatwave of 1976? 🌡️💧🐞 We asked climate scientist Laura Baker: ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...

Under climate change, the polar regions warm *faster* than the rest of the world ("polar amplification", PA). But, is this always the case? In this preprint (with Tim Merlis) we studied the 'state-dependence' of PA—feedback welcomed! :) andrewilwilliams.github.io/papers/pa_widerange_main.pdf

www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/ho... An analysis of how unusual this summer has been compared to long running @metoffice.gov.uk datasets 🧪

As a teenager I spent a week at Armagh Observatory. The people there were passionate about their work. The experience was part of what inspired to pursue a degree in physics and then a research career. It's a place with a very long and proud history in meteorology as well as astronomy.

This framing is misleading. It's super important that we recognise that there's no 'new normal' until we stop burning fossil fuels - it just keeps getting worse & worse! As the scientists quoted in the article say "today’s high temperatures are likely to be average by 2050, & cool by 2100"

The east of Scotland dodged the heat today due to a cold sea fog (haar). A high of 32C in Aviemore (inland) but only 20C in Leuchars (near the coast)!

Looks like they’ve clarified this now! Parts of England =/= the UK

Isomorts diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/09/i...

📣 New paper: 💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared? doi.org/10.1038/s432...

On The Climate Brink: What to know about the flooding in Texas? What's the connection to climate change? www.theclimatebrink.com/p/update-on-...

New study by Liu and Wang (@leiwqg.bsky.social‬) shows that diabatic heating strengthens ridge blocks, while it dampens dipole blocks in the Northern Hemisphere. #AtmosphericBlocking #DiabaticHeating www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Toddlers are nature’s way of making sure that entropy continues to increase in the universe.