In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur. The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real. But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often. doi.org/10.1126/scia...

Research Assistant position closing 25th: my.corehr.com/pls/nuimrecr... to work on the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social contract on access to global land meteorological holdings.

Great to be back @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social to present a seminar on understanding the physics of climate change over land. Catching 'Playboy of the Western World' @nationaltheatre.org.uk is an added bonus!

2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate ⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content ⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps ⬆️ Second warmest troposphere ⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs ⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

AI does math proofs. Very interesting thread from a top mathematician. mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1158558...

This study shows that the tropical meridional surface #temperature gradient remains stable across a wide range of climates. This robust feature is maintained by solar radiation and tropical dynamics and provides a fundamental law to study #ClimateChange. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Heavy snowfall events will occur throughout the 21st century, despite global warming ❄️⛄⛷️ Reason is non-intuitive and relates to the existence of an 'optimal' temp for heavy snow that is insensitive to warming (details: www.nature.com/articles/nat...) #climate #snow www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Open full Professor position in beautiful Scotland…

Tropical Temperature Distributions Over a Wide Range of Climates 🌡️🥵 Using theory + sims, we explore how temperature PDFs respond to climate change over land vs ocean. Work led by Josh Duffield! @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Starting 2026 with a bang, our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉 In it, we explored how polar amplification depends on the underlying climate state, with implications for understanding the past and future evolution of polar climate change! Enjoy! :) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118423

And speaking of future heatwaves. New paper alert! A tour de force by my (now former) PhD student Adam Bauer. We introduce SMACM (Soil Moisture Atmosphere Coupled Model): a simple(ish) nonlinear Hasselman model to explain the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture.

This is interesting -- and has parallels in physics and climate science w.r.t. the balance between science for understanding and skillful prediction. Comments @alisabokulich.bsky.social?

🚨Professorship at St Andrews🚨 We are recruiting a Professor in Earth Sci (incl atmos, oceans, climate) @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social Ideal candidate is a leading researcher with interests in impact/outreach. Deadline 23/3/26! www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...

2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5). Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).

It is likely that 2025 will be the warmest year on record for the UK. Why does this matter? Burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, including the UK, causing heatwaves to get hotter. For Central England this is happening 2x faster than the mean change. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

“NCAR has played a greater role in advancing weather prediction & atmospheric modeling than perhaps any other single entity in the world,” says @weatherwest.bsky.social Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH

📣 LEAP IS HIRING! 📣 Spread the word - we're looking to add to our Data + Compute team! ▶️ APPLY TODAY: academic.careers.columbia.edu#!/174775

Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH) iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...

📢Submit to our EGU session!📢 We are organizing a session at EGU 2026 in Vienna, with a focus on climate sensitivity, radiative feedbacks and the pattern effect! If you work on anything related to climate sensitivity, we'd love to have you! 🥳🥳🥳 Submit soon! :)

Excited to attend the inaugural Scottish Climate Conference! Organised by @annamackie.bsky.social and Alex Chaudhri, the event will take place over the next two days @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social #climate #science

A polar vortex of confusion simonleewx.com/2025/11/20/a...

We are convening an EGU 2026 session on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climates! Always a fun and vibrant session, abstract deadline is 15th Jan 💨🌎 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨 New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social: Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Apparently Hurricane Melissa was "engineered" as part of a land-clearing plot to build smart cities in Jamaica 🤔 Here is my attempt, via BBC Verify, to douse this conspiracy nonsense with some science facts: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c9...

Trends in October temperatures over land areas for the last 50 years... Data from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...

Excited to be visiting @universityofleeds.bsky.social today! I will discuss our research on the physics of tropical land in a changing climate, including hot-off-the-server results suggesting a drier future than climate models predict @earthandenvleeds.bsky.social @earthscista.bsky.social

Nice piece in @uk.theconversation.com by Nadir Jeevanjee about early models and their visionary predictions of climate change fingerprints (incl polar amp, land-ocean contrast, strato cooling). Also a timely homage to GFDL, driver of these early predictions 🌍 theconversation.com/5-forecasts-...

We had a fantastic research 'away day' at East Sands in St Andrews, where we discussed the future of extreme temperatures as part of GLOBAL-EX project. A lunchtime swim + cheese toasties on the beach was an added bonus! @erc.europa.eu @ukri.org @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social

“Human health can be seriously affected by high heat and humidity. Such a dramatic increase in the occurrence of these humid-heat events is bringing more societies into challenging, potentially life-threatening, situations.” - Dr. Kate Willett @metoffice.gov.uk #ClimateEmergency 🥵

Scotland is under a wildfire warning 🔥🌡️, fuelled by a very dry spring. I talked to BBC World at One about wildfires in Scotland which involve humans behaving badly, grouse shooting, and more than a hint of climate change. From 27min 25sec: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... @earthscista.bsky.social

Two new exciting job opportunities at @universityofleeds.bsky.social machine-learning forecasting for West Africa. ML is revolutionising forecasting, so this is a major opportunity. jobs.leeds.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx... jobs.leeds.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

Worth pointing out that thunderstorms and hail are very much not “unseasonal” in summer as reported here (hail isn’t wintry weather!) but quite dramatic scenes in Dundee and environs today www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

"The Climate Change Committee, the government’s statutory adviser, has repeatedly highlighted a lack of urgent effort to adapt critical infrastructure, from water, transport and communication networks, to the fabric of our buildings" www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Deeply honoured that our research has been cited in the new DOE climate report

Unprecedented continental drying since 2002 based on satellite data and dominated by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European #drought & groundwater depletion: doi.org/10.1126/scia... Consistent with earlier work: doi.org/10.1007/s107...

📣 New paper: 💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared? doi.org/10.1038/s432...

The Western Mediterranean has been record warm recently, shown here for the June averages from ERA5. This much warmth in the Mediterranean may predict a brutally hot summer for Europe. 1/ 🧵🧪🌊

As the UK prepares for an extended heatwave over coming days, interesting new @natgeosci.nature.com research suggests longer heatwaves as climate warms #climate #heatwave www.nature.com/articles/s41...

1°C of global warming does NOT mean that heatwaves 'just' get hotter by 1°C. Over large parts of the UK, global warming means that heatwaves are 3-4°C warmer, with worse consequences for people and ecosystems.

Western Europe summer high temperatures have increased ~2.6 °C (4.7 °F) during just the last 50 years. That's in a world with only 1.4 °C of global warming.

Some forecast models are showing the potential for record-breaking heat in the UK later in June 🌡️ Ensemble forecasts can help us better understand the extremes of the current climate. @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social, Paul Davies and I wrote about this last year theconversation.com/the-climate-...

Not a bad backdrop for pondering science at the Simons Symposium for Multi-Scale Physics ⚛️ I will be talking today about "Large-scale and local-scale influences on tropical land climate" www.simonsfoundation.org/event/multi-...

Great to be visiting beautiful @ethz.ch for a few days of science! I will be presenting a seminar on elevation-dependent warming followed by examining a PhD on the water cycle in a changing climate 💦🌡️🌤️

New #FATESmodel postdoc in Oslo! Come and join our team :) www.jobbnorge.no/en/available... Postdoctoral Research Fellow in terrestrial carbon cycle modelling (281332) | University of Oslo

Harvard president receives standing ovation during commencement.

My friend is in charge of the team that wrote the climate change adaptation plan for Switzerland and this is one of the things they expected.

Wonderful to be back (at a very soggy) @harvard.edu for the Continental Climate Workshop, where I gave a talk about elevation-dependent warming over land. It has been a bittersweet visit, given the unsettling and escalating situation at Harvard. Thinking about all those affected 🌍

Attending the amazing 'Philosophy of Climate Science' workshop @uniofstandrews.bsky.social this week! Today I gave a talk on 'Theory and the future of (land-)climate science'. Want to know more? Checkout the paper: rdcu.be/dWEZI @earthscista.bsky.social @standrewsphil.bsky.social

⚒️ Article: Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme precipitation explained by shift from stratiform to convective rain type @leibniz-zmt.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...