No prizes for guessing where this sprawl of wet weather is headed for tonight through tomorrow🙄

A: Anomalously weak polar vortex in troposphere & lower stratosphere, supporting blocked weather patterns B: Sudden stratospheric warming event hitting upper stratosphere C: Possible troposphere-led breakdown of blocking pattern in troposphere in mid-February To elaborate...

A by-decade, per-region analysis of Hadley UK daily precipitation data since 1936 reveals that in England & Wales, 2016-2025 widely has the highest number of exceedances for thresholds of 5, 10, 15, & 20 mm regional mean total. Interestingly this is not true for Scotland.

Still keeping a wary eye on the potential for a major SSW event in mid-February that could delay or set back the spring warmup in northern Europe. The latest ECMWF ensemble mean doesn't get as close to a major SSW, but a larger number of runs have a long duration event.

Run after run, the theme of a very wet southern Europe continues. It appears this will be the state of play until mid-February. Concerning amounts for some areas. Still rather unsettled in southern UK too, but (hopefully!) with lower rainfall totals than in the past few weeks.

For the sake of those beneath I'm hoping the radar is acting up in the Portsmouth area at the moment. Such widespread 60+ mm per hour rates would be extremely unusual for this time of year.

No surprise that the lakes at Moors Valley are overspilling at the end of the 2nd wettest January on record for the local area.

As a meteorologist & weather enthusiast, January 2026 has been a tale of massive capitulation from a local (southern UK) perspective. It started very well, with plenty of dry, sunny weather & some interesting iciness. Then the weather turned, with a soggy 9th (16.4 mm here)...

Overall, the next 7 days don't look as wet across the UK & Ireland as the last 7. However, it's uncertain how the wet weather will be distributed, & there's a chance it focuses across southwest UK & eastern Ireland to give those areas yet another very wet week.

Yet another compact low approaches southern UK today. This one not nearly as deep as the previous two, but set to bring further wet weather to the already heavily drenched southwest this afternoon into evening, before heading northward tonight through tomorrow.

According to the Hadley UK Precipitation dataset, last Monday was the wettest January day in southwest England since at least 1931. 2 of the 10 wettest January days in that region have occurred this month. The 8th was also within the top 10 for the other southern & central UK regions.

For 12-15 days ahead in time you'll rarely see a stronger signal for cold UK weather than the AI version of ECMWF's ensemble model currently has for 10th-13th Feb. The non-AI version is a little more restrained but still a notable signal. A good test of these models coming up.

So it begins. No snowdrop sightings yet.

On the face of it this is a strong signal for a blocking high to establish in the Greenland-Iceland area by 10th February. Traditionally this has translated to cold weather in northern Europe, but in recent winters this has been much more hit-&-miss.

Current forecast modelling for 1st half February in Europe suggests very cold weather continues for north-eastern parts while it's warmer than average further southwest. To some extent or other, the cold conditions *might* spread west in 2nd week February.

South-western UK & southern Ireland continue to be one of the focal areas for rainfall for the remainder of this month, with another 20-30 mm possible, perhaps locally near 40 mm. Here in NE Dorset it looks to be the 2nd wettest Jan on record with nearly 200 mm (2014 saw 233.5).

Really did catch the thick of it here these past 24 hours. The very highest radar-estimated totals are around 15 miles to my northwest. The event total looks likely to exceed 50 mm here. If this was all within one calendar day I'd be looking at the 2nd wettest day on record.

As if storm Chandra didn't drop enough rainfall, heavy showers continue to pile into south-western UK this evening & with higher frequency than this afternoon. They're also elongated along-flow, making for some lengthy spells of rain. Could easily add another 5-10 mm for many.

Incredibly trivial fact: We're 19.2% of the way toward the summer solstice from the winter one, but have only seen 12.5% of the change in day length. This is due to the rate of change being non-linear, accelerating until the equinox, then decelerating until the solstice.

Radar estimated 24 hour rainfall amounts through to noon GMT today. Suggests 20+ mm widely in western UK & near-coast Ireland, with many spots topping 30 mm. My local area in NE Dorset has topped 40 mm, with weather stations reporting up to around 50 mm locally.

There was an intriguing right-angle in the cloud structure associated with storm Chandra at 9:30 GMT today. A very sharp leading edge to the drier air being drawn into the storm's circulation.

Over 30 mm rain from storm Chandra on top of over 100 mm in the there weeks prior has resulted in overland flows on a scale I’ve not seen here in Verwood before.

A bit hard to read (alas no zoomed version exists), but most ECMWF ensemble runs bottom out tomorrow's low by Ireland below 960 mb, with some below 950 mb. Fortunately for Ireland, most runs keep the strongest winds - which may be near hurricane force - to the south.

This weekend brings an opportunity for the thoroughly wet pattern over western Europe to break down, as a high over Scandinavia attempts to take over proceedings. However, most forecast models have that failing. The biggest exception this morning is the AI GFS model (top right).

Regarding the buzz around a potential major sudden stratospheric warming event in February, it would likely take a strong zonal mean zonal wind reversal within 1st half Feb for a significant cold spell to affect northern Europe pre-spring. Only ~10% of the latest ECWMF ensemble predicts that.

Judging by recent forecast modelling, increasingly likely that some southern & western parts of the UK & perhaps eastern Ireland record a top 3 wettest January on record.

Storm Ingrid is extremely impressive this morning, with a minimum sea-level pressure of about 954 mb which is around 4 standard deviations below average. This implies that for that area, such low pressure occurs in less than 0.1% of years.

January 2026 hours of sunshine here in NE Dorset First 10 days: 45.9 Following 11 days: 8.1 What a fall from grace! ☀️📉 😔

We're nearly there with sorting out the finer detail of the UK & Ireland weather this weekend into early next week. The uncertainty mainly relates to how much of a weakening area of low pressure near or over the SW heads south-eastward, & how quickly that happens.

Cold weather in NW Europe is often a precarious act & we're seeing a good demo of that regarding early next week. The Atlantic trough being slightly closer & the European one a little less far south makes for a considerably less cold outlook, except perhaps in Scotland.

Will cold weather reach southern UK for at least a time early next week? The latest GFS ensemble says 'small chance' but the latest ECMWF one says 'more likely than not'. Only a few of the GFS ensemble runs are as cold or colder than the mean of ECMWF's. Some disagreement! 🤷‍♂️

Just like last year, early 2026 is competing for date record low Arctic sea ice extent. For how many more years will we avoid the hard-hitting combo of a weak sea ice freezing season followed by a strong melting season?

While there are drier scenarios in the ensemble modelling, the potential is there for January 2026 to become among the wettest on record in some western parts of the UK. E.g. these runs would have my local area (NE Dorset) reach around 160-170 mm, 2nd or 3rd wettest on record.

The deep Atlantic low early next week continues to cause havoc with the forecast models this evening. UKMO on the left has brisk south-westerlies extending across the UK & Ireland on 26th, while IFS (ECMWF's det. model) has a cold easterly holding firm. Can't call this one yet.

Wondering if winter may prove reluctant to depart from northern Europe. Forecast modelling has been trending toward a weak polar vortex state in February, while we look to enter the month with high latitude blocking in play. A recipe for above normal cold weather probability.

Next week's weather continues to be very challenging to anticipate for WN Europe. Most guidance now has cold conditions arriving ~26th January, but beyond that there's not much coherence. For starters, models disagree on how close a large low in the Atlantic will be on that day.

An interesting case study for the non-AI versus AI modelling next week. For a week today, the AI models have much more westward transport of cold air across the central swathe of Europe compared to the non-AI ones. Are the AI onto something, or making incorrect deductions 🤔

When predicting for late January in the UK, ECMWF's deterministic model (IFS) has rarely been near the ensemble (EPS) mean in recent days, & the latest update is no exception. It brings in Atlantic low pressure systems more than nearly all ensemble runs.

Here in CS England, 11th December 2022 brought one of the most interesting ice-related weather events I've experienced in recent years. A heavy hoar frost after a very cold night, while more unstable conditions arrived from the west, leading to a rare visual combination.

One potential reason to expect Atlantic-driven weather to continue across NW Europe through late Jan has been forecasts of a 'wave reflection' in the stratosphere, which tends to turn N. America colder & 'fire up' the Atlantic polar jet stream. BUT this has trended weaker...

Latest forecast modelling suggests UK temperatures remain near to above average through ~Sat 17th Jan, then drop to slightly below average. From 22nd Jan there's a gradually increasing chance of cold weather.

Tomorrow could turn out pretty wet in the far SE & NW of England, plus the far NW of Wales. Elsewhere, some rain but not all that much by January standards. Thursday looks to bring a more substantial event, potentially over 20 mm across a wide swathe. Uncertain where that'll be.

With the tend toward high pressure having more influence from the northeast, the outlook for western Europe during 16th-23rd January has shifted markedly drier since last Friday. Meanwhile, the opposite is true for the central-western Mediterranean.

After a few days insisting that a westerly-driven (milder) pattern takes over the UK's weather starting next weekend, ECMWF's det. model has made substantial adjustments that have made a mixed or even easterly-dominated (colder) pattern more likely. Still an evolving story.

Meteorological trivia: Yesterday was the first day this year that the Isles of Scilly didn't record the UK's highest official temperature. During UK winter cold spells, the highest temperatures typically occur either there or at St Catherine's Point on the Isle of Wight.

The last time I saw a full covering of snow in my local area (NE Dorset / W Hampshire) that lasted more than a day: 1st February 2019. Most of it stuck around through 3rd February. Nearly seven years ago.

The ECMWF ensemble is pretty confident in cold weather in Europe remaining limited for at least a week starting Monday. Beyond that, many runs return cold weather to Scandinavia by 20th, then ~39% of them advance it as far west as the UK by 24th. Just something to keep an eye on.

A big change to the feel of the weather for much of Europe next week, temperatures widely above average. More variable for the UK & Ireland with some mild days & some chilly ones as weather systems move through. Anomalously wet in western parts of Europe but mostly not by much.

🚨 The Met Office have just issued a red warning for wind, affecting the Isles of Scilly plus western reaches of Cornwall this evening into tonight. It will be very hazardous to be out & about in that area as winds gust to 80-100 mph. Most of all, stay away from the sea.

In recent days it's been uncertain to what extent milder, wetter weather advances into northern Europe next week. The past 24 hours has seen subtle yet highly impactful changes to the predicted shape of a trough just west of the UK, to one that more readily pushes eastward...