A 'fun' fact: Due to the slightly elliptical nature of Earth's orbit around the sun, sunset times in the UK have barely changed since the summer solstice, while sunrise times have shifted much more. E.g. in southern England sunrise is now ~7 mins later, sunset ~1 min earlier.

While there remains risk of it turning very hot at some point, the outlook for 2nd & 3rd weeks of July in southern UK is generally very fine if you like plenty of sunshine with daily max temps in high 20s or low 30s °C. (You can typically add 2-4°C to the peaks in this graph)

Noting down the predicted minimum & maximum temperatures for northeast Dorset in the 12z GFS run... I think there's something wrong with it 🤨 Either that or it's onto something that's somehow being completely overlooked by ECMWF's modelling (very unlikely).

Nothing to be concerned about but two days ago this was very green, a rapid transition. Pallid grass really adds to the ‘hot dry summer’ sensation because scarce rainfall usually means plenty of sunny days with hot sunshine have occurred.

The 00z ECMWF ensemble for Reading, England is yet another where only the largest pattern-forced temperature changes are able to bring the 850 hPa temperatures down below the 1991-2020 average. Yet very few runs head into 'very hot' territory - an interesting situation.

The GFS model is being very stubborn with its hotter scenario for France & the UK later next week. Compared to other models it's developing more of a 'heat low' that drifts northward, dragging very hot air with it. I've often seen GFS overdo those before, so I'm sceptical.

The UK weather this Sat-Tue could be described as "good fortune for the south at the expense of the north". The forecast trend has been toward a more pleasant very warm to locally hot outcome in the south, but this leaves the north rather cool & often rainy especially in west.

Unusual to see a large mean positive temperature anomaly persist through an entire ECMWF ensemble run. If the model has the right idea here, temperatures in much of western Europe are going to be well above normal for most of the first half of July.

June 2026, a month that was running very near average here as of 15th, has finished with the highest June mean temperature on record & the first in the 18s °C. This is testament to how extremely anomalous the heatwave of 21st-27th was. Hottest 3 Junes are in the past 4 years.

Relatively small scale detail on the position & shape of high pressure will have a big impact on how hot it becomes in the UK this weekend into next week. Plausible outcomes range from cool north, very warm south to warm north, hot south. Dry weather in southern UK regardless.

Local to me, June 2023 set a record highest June mean daily min temp 0.12°C above the prior record set 1960. June 2025 then exceeded that by 0.63°C, a huge margin for a monthly mean record. June 2026 is another 0.84°C higher. The record has increased by 1.59°C in 4 years 😲

Next week's southern UK heatwave potential strikes me as looking far more 'normal' than the last one, though there is a chance it escalates beyond that later on. I.e. unlikely to be as challenging as the June one. Uncertain whether northern UK & Ireland see a heatwave.

An unprecedented heatwave for June has set all-time heat records at 9 European nations or territories, and we expect a renewed resurgence early next week. For the rest of this week, it's the United States' turn to roast in a mega heat wave. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the details:

May-June so far has been quite something for temperatures in my local area (& widely in England I expect). The mean daily minimum is 0.5°C above the prior record (1960) & mean daily maximum 0.44°C above (2023). Meanwhile it's shattered records for days >= 30°C & nights >= 15°C.

There remains a strong signal from ECMWF for well above normal temps in E&W next week. However, the non-AI model isn't very interested in bringing in airmasses as hot as seen last week (Low 20s at 850 hPa), & the AI model only a bit more so. Emphasis is on duration rather than intensity.

With an air temp of 22°C & dew point of 10°C, the fresh Atlantic air has finally returned in full here in NE Dorset. My home is putting up a fight though, still 24.5°C despite a decent cross-flow between windows. Usually the way due to stored heat within the structure.

The ECMWF ensemble mean is very dry for southernmost England & northern France during the next fortnight. Seeing less than 3 mm on a mean of 50 ensemble members across such a long time period is quite something. Good thing June's first half was so wet.

As expected, yesterday was the last day of the heatwave here, & what a relief. Despite being in June, it was the most intense heatwave on record here across each of 4, 5, 6, & 7 days duration.

This animation shows how the next European heatwave may take shape. This coming week, a sustained easterly flow descending from Spain's high inner plateau leads to extensive adiabatic warming of descending air, building a lot of heat just W of Europe, which later returns east.

Usually, an any-month record-challenging/setting summer heatwave occurs July or early August. We then know that even if another heatwave occurs later, there’s a good chance it will be more constrained by shorter days, weaker sunshine. Right now in Western Europe, this isn’t so.

I've had a graph like this on the go for my local area each year since 2009 & not once did the 7-day mean temperature anomaly go off the top of the scale. Now it's done so twice & at an interval of one month.

We're already starting to see another pronounced hot weather signal emerge for 2nd week July, with the potential for v. hot conditions to return. You might think "surely we couldn't have another high-end heatwave so soon?" but the trouble is, extreme weather can load the dice...

The Azores high looks to become impressively strong for the time of year later next week. This will act to build a lot of heat over Iberia & the neighbouring area of the North Atlantic. In time this could well shift E or NE - the risk of that increasing toward mid-July.

As the peak temperatures occur in eastern England today, the dew points are some 2-3°C lower than during the peak temperatures in south-western England yesterday. So the peak heat stress of this heatwave has been in the southwest (& don't I know it 🥵).

Setting new temperature records by substantial margins is already impressive, but doing so with high humidity even more so. Reason being, with higher moisture content to the air, its specific heat capacity increases, meaning it takes more energy to raise its temperature.

The rainfall outlook for Europe in the next fortnight resembles ECMWF's seasonal modelling for July-August with deficits across the northwest. It's also akin to the pattern indicated by research into the most common summertime effect of the strongest El Niño events in history.

1976 remains top dog when it comes to sheer duration of a heatwave - & could feasibly do so for years to come - but it really has been pulverised when it comes to overall intensity across a 4-day period here. Minimums in 1976 were mainly in the mid-teens °C, so comfortable by comparison!

I've had to extend the scale of this graph twice in the past couple of months. The index of +1.4 for the daily min of 25th indicates that the observed value here (21.1°C) was 1.4 times the prior difference between the weekly record high & the weekly long-term average.

Some peak departures of daily max (°C) from average during hot spells in recent years here in NE Dorset: Jun 2020, 11.2 Aug 2020, 11.4 Jul 2022, 11.8 Aug 2022, 11.2 Sep 2023, 10.4 May 2025, 11.5 May 2026, 13.6 Jun 2026, 14.8

June dates now comfortably top both the highest daily max & daily min temperatures on record tables for my local area in summer (or any time of year), an extraordinary feat.

It’s now down to 25.5°C indoors entirely through natural ventilation, I’m so relieved 😄

Records are being pulverised all over Europe. This weekend historic heat pushes E the Euro forecasts 42C (108F) in Berlin, Germany. The city has never seen 40C before the all-time record high temperature at Berlin-Tempelhof is 38.5C in June 2019, measurements began in 1894. It’s just summer…. 🤧

28°C with 70% relative humidity at 11 pm 🫠

Hard work getting up here at 30°C with 56% RH but with it for this

Thunderstorms have begun kicking off over the western Channel & bordering Atlantic. The associated line is forecast to head northward (crossing England this evening & night) while activity along it generally heads north-westward.

Yeovilton now in the territory of what the July national record was not many years ago. 36°C in my local area, yesterday’s record high has already fallen.

Yeovilton at the top of the SYNOP stations for peak temperature so far today with 36.0°C at 2:10 pm BST. Given clear skies & an easterly wind, it's likely to reach even higher within the next couple of hours - the June record set in Gosport yesterday is already under threat.

For western Europe, large-scale forcing suggests it's more a question of when rather than if another heatwave kicks off next month. Current modelling suggests this could begin as soon as 10th July (~29% of ECMWF ensemble) but is more likely to begin at least a little later.

35°C with a 23°C dew point at Thorney Island (just east of Portsmouth) gives a heat index of 41°C. Genuinely dangerous heat if active outdoors, even for those in good health.

Tomorrow, the peak temperatures will focus more on the 'typical hot spots': Large urbanisations & eastern England in general. A part of what's making Wed-Thu so extreme is the focus of the peak heat in more (south-)western areas that are less accustomed to that.

Prior GFS run for Sunday on the left, newer on the right. Please can this stop happening.

Local area June record daily max exceeded by 1.2°C & any-month record by 0.7°C. Pre-2026 June record daily min exceeded by 3.1°C & any-month record by 1.2°C. This heatwave has no precedent in reliable records spanning 84 years - & not even close for June.

Kitchen window was open overnight & yet…

My idea of an optimal temperature… for a daily max, not 7 am 🫠

A sight I’ve not seen here before, perhaps behaving more boldly due to increased thirst.

Just shy of 30°C at nearly 10 pm in rural NE Dorset. Seeing a lot of people trying to cool their homes via open windows & doors… good luck with that 😬

Not the best sight to return home to

Bournemouth Airport’s true max has come in at 35.2°C for today, 1.1°C above its old record for any time of year & only 0.4°C short of the old national record that has now been exceeded by several official weather stations in SE England. Still 32°C outside here as I type this.

The 3 pm BST conditions at Bournemouth Airport give me a heat index of 39°C 🥵

Not liking GFS' trend over the past 48 hours. Ever slower to clear the very hot airmass away form England, with the latest run adding Saturday to the run of days reaching the mid-30s somewhere. ECMWF's model has also been trending slower but less aggressively. One to watch.