The first rain in 15 days here in NE Dorset has also ended a notably dry run extending all the way back to 16th March. In that time only 3 days saw 1+ mm & only one more than 1.2 mm (15th April, 3.5 mm). However 11 days with 0.2-0.8 mm prevented an exceptional run of dryness.

Local to me - & widely in England & Wales - April 2026 has joined those of 2025 & 2020 at the high end of the historical range for mean daily max temperatures. 3 in 7 years. Probably mostly down to natural variability, overlaid unto the long-term trend.

Whenever GFS predicts an unusually chilly airmass without anticyclonic descent suppressing convection, it rightly predicts widespread development of showers, but tends to underestimate sunny spells in between. The result, wildly low predicted max temps, as per this example.

Outflow from moist convection over France has moved over parts of England & Wales this afternoon, interrupting the otherwise mainly crystal clear skies. Where it's pushing up against the dry airmass arriving from the east, a convergence line has developed some cloud along it.

Hate to say it but I think UK gardeners need to keep an eye on the possibility of some late frosts during the middle to late stages of next week. Signs are we could see a slack northerly with a chilly airmass & clear nights, a recipe for overnight minimum temps near freezing.

Humidity Wars: Return of the Very Low Humidity In a galaxy we call home, less than a week since the last instance, an island known as the United Kingdom again finds itself swathed in considerably dry air, with relative humidity as low as 22%.

Still a lot to be sorted out when it comes to how much it rains across England & Wales during the long weekend. Some forecast models drift a weak low across from the south on Sunday, while others keep it to the south. If it does move across, some spots could see over 30 mm.

Cloud cover remains one of the most challenging aspects to weather forecasting. See here how UKV has missed the sunnier breaks this mid-morning, while ARPEGE & GFS hinted at them but didn't capture the distribution well - most notably the L-shaped partition to the cloud.

Neat system moving generally southward across central parts of England at the moment. A very sharp leading edge & a decent clearance not far in its wake. Radar suggests some very heavy rainfall in places but not lasting long.

The sunshine has just been fully blocked by a cloud. Usually unremarkable in England, but the last time that happened here in NE Dorset was last Tuesday!

The latest ECMWF ensemble clusters point toward settled conditions either side of a more unsettled spell of UK weather coinciding almost perfectly with the early May BH weekend. Could be a classic in that regard, though it's not looking like a washout - mostly just showery.

UKV's take on tomorrow's showery conditions in parts of the UK. Initially just some light activity over Scotland, before pepping up while journeying south, but nothing very feisty predicted. For SE England where it's been very dry of late, it arrives in decaying form. Not ideal!

Signs of more unstable weather for NW Europe in the opening week of May. The distribution of associated wet weather is very uncertain, with the GFS 12z det. run leaving parts of southern England parched, in stark contrast to the ECMWF 00z det.

Runs of 3+ 20°C+ days in April here in NE Verwood... 1945 15th-20th (6) 1984 22nd-26th (5) 2003 15th-18th (4) 2007 14th-16th (3) & 28th-30th (3) 2011 19th-25th (7) 2015 14th-16th (3) 2018 18th-21st (4) 2019 18th-23rd (6) 2020 8th-12th (5) & 21st-24th (4) 2026 23rd-25th (3)

The very dry air of recent days over southern England is now being replaced from the west by some markedly more humid air. A big jump in dew points for some! This plus some high-based cloud should keep temps higher tonight. A more 'traditional' feel to the air tomorrow, you could say.

The precise moment some high based cloud put a stop to the clear sunshine in Verwood this evening. Tomorrow is set to look markedly different for much of the UK with extensive high based cloud hazing the sunshine. Despite that, it'll be nearly as warm as today for most.

In weather & climate, a powerful El Niño is almost certain to be among the biggest stories of 2026. Here's a detailed look at the way these events develop, how they're monitored, & what the upcoming event means for global weather patterns. www.metswift.com/2026/04/24/p...

Vibrant scenery & cats, what a glorious day.

The air across the UK & Ireland today is even drier than it was yesterday. Air temperatures are similar yet the relative humidity is lower, in places below 30%. Up on the Pennines it's as low as 14% at Spadeadam. Head there without lip salve at your peril 😄

Seeing a consistent signal from ECMWF's ensemble for the predominantly dry run of weather in NW Europe to cease sometime within the first 4 days of May. It'll take some luck for it to hold on through the early May BH in the UK. A more unsettled spell could then last 1-2 weeks.

A brisk north-easterly wind coupled with some cloud hugging the North Sea coast while it's sunny elsewhere has made for some large temperature differences across England this afternoon. From a chilly 7°C at Loftus in North Yorkshire to a cosy 21°C at Chivenor in northern Devon.

Looking south toward Verwood and beyond, not that you’d know it! 🌳

This month has so far felt quite sunny to me, yet it's barely above the local 2003-2025 average. The poorest runs of sunshine have been 11.4 hours 1st-4th & 11.2 hours 14th-17th, hardly tragic. Despite a very sunny 2025 it seems 2023-24 still skews my idea of 'normal' downward.

In the ECMWF 00z deterministic run for Europe, something is missing over most of Ireland, the UK, & parts of France: rainfall. There are places with zero or trace amounts all the way out to 5th May. This has been true of several recent runs from the model.

Parts of Ireland & southern UK are having to be patient as a dry airmass displaces a relatively moist one that's been delivering mostly cloudy skies today. Where exposed to the brisk wind, it feels cool out of the sunshine, & only just warm within it. Classic mid-spring weather.

April 2026 has so far been notably warm for the Hadley mean Central England Temperature, ranking 12th as of 18th. The week ahead will attempt to drive it downward as the nights dip close to freezing. However, the days might offset that, more so than GFS predicts (biased low).

Had a surprisingly sunny mid-afternoon onward here in Verwood today, thanks to some more stable air drawn from the Bristol Channel. This phenomenon requires just the right wind direction & speed. This is the most pronounced I can ever recall seeing it on satellite imagery.

Conditions generally became more stable each side of a weak weather front crossing the UK this afternoon. Result being a particularly pronounced belt of cloud along the front, with fair weather & temperatures widely reaching at least 14°C either side.

Forecast modelling has been coalescing on a scenario that places high pressure just northwest of the UK for much of next week. An increasing number of runs have the high extending toward central Europe later on, which steers cold air toward the eastern half of the continent.

Some lightning over Nuneaton area, scaring off all the birds 😂

A fair bit of lightning is being detected along portions of a squall line currently departing Wales. Cardiff appears to have had some thunder. The section over southwest England was also showing some activity but this has recently quietened. All heading ~north-eastward.

I've not seen such an angry-looking weather front in these parts since well before spring. It's moving quite quickly, taking about 30 minutes to pass through, which at a mean rain rate of around 8 mm per hour suggests around 4 mm accumulation. About 7% of the April LTA here.

The latest ECMWF ensemble leans cooler than average for all of 19th-29th April in the UK (Reading shown as an example), with some notably chilly scenarios in the mix. OTOH there are enough warmer ones that a cool outcome can't yet be presumed with good confidence.

Forecast models are keen on a high latitude blocking pattern setting up for the Atlantic-Europe sector for next week, with high pressure to the NW of Europe. This comes with either a low or a high just W of Europe - there's no agreement on which it will be...

Last year was the 4th driest on record for 16th March to 10th April in my local area. This year is now the new 4th driest. Talk about a familiar scene! Driest on record 2020 with just 3.5 mm (this year 5.1 mm). 3 of the 5 driest within the past 7 years, intriguing.

Well this just happened 🌅

Observed 2 m temps at 1 pm BST today show the huge change in airmass taking place across the UK today (having already occurred in Ireland). Summerlike warmth is clinging on in the SE corner while western Scotland & Wales has temps more typical of early March, a very fresh feel.

After a cool, showery sort of weekend, UK weather prospects become rather vague for next week. Signs of warmer, drier weather returning around Wed 15th, but to what extent is unclear; there's a lot of scatter in the ECMWF ensemble for Reading for example.

Just been walking in a calm low 20s °C… after 7 pm, just over a week into April, in rural southern England. Properly wowed by the feel of it, a true ‘lazy summer evening’ atmosphere.

Today's impressive warmth in southern UK is the product of an exceptionally warm airmass coupled with well above normal sea surface temps in the vicinity. The second very noticeable here, about 15 miles inland in Dorset, where there's no sign of the usual cooling sea breeze.

Reached into the 21s °C here yesterday, the 4th earliest that's happened in records back to the early 1940s. 2021 did so on 30th March. 1946 on 3rd April, within a trio of Aprils 1944-1946 that were warm even compared to the 1991-2020 average. Last year saw 21s on 4th April.

Today is forecast to be among the warmest days on record for this point in the year in CS/SE England. Even the GFS model, which has been underestimating daily max temps lately, is now predicting 23-24°C in the warmest spots. Could well see 25-26°C in the Greater London area.

Impressive temperature for almost 11 pm on an early April night. More typical of June in this part of the world.

Developing strong El Niño summer composites for Europe, focusing on the broad themes. June: Warm NW (allowing for trend), cool SW. Dry north, wet south. Conducive to more thunderstorm outbreaks than usual in western Europe.

Ended up slowly herding this goose and goslings for a few minutes before a careful pass after they sought shelter off to the side.

There's been a notable shortage of wet weather in forecast model runs for the next couple of weeks in parts of southern England. Some spots might only see 1-2 mm. The wet Jan-Feb, dry Mar-Apr is reminiscent of last year. A different story for western Ireland & Scotland!

Storm Dave sports an impressive "crab's claw" of cloud as it heads north-eastward toward Scotland via Ireland & Northern Ireland. Valentia in SW Ireland reported gusts to 69 mph at 4 pm BST. Locally that area may be experiencing gusts up to around 75 mph (based on forecasts).

The airmass over NW Europe next Tue-Wed looks impressively warm for the time of year, a wide area with 850 hPa temperatures 8-12°C above the long-term average. Near-surface temps look similarly anomalous in much of France, a little less so in the UK. Nothing exceptional, mind.

The GFS det. model has now joined the ECMWF one regarding next Tue-Wed, with anomalously warm weather in England & Wales on both days. In the midst of which, there's a chance of elevated thunderstorms Tuesday night ⛈️

For most of the UK, good confidence now that the Easter weekend will see sunnier weather advance from the south starting Sunday afternoon, reaching Scotland during Monday. Northern Ireland may see cloudier weather return on Monday (same story for Ireland).