This rain band is advancing much slower east than original model forecasts suggested. Coming up against a weak block in E/NE Europe. If the near continent was cold this would be producing snowfall into SE with SE’ly wind a thaw would have quickly followed with wind veering westerly.

On this day 15 years ago many places experienced one of coldest December afternoons on record. The high temperature was -2.3C at London Heathrow. December 2010 would become the coldest December on record at this site (1948-present).

Meteorological autumn finished milder than average at #London Heathrow with average temp of 12.7C +0.5C above 1991-2020 - not so excessive on recent baseline. But this autumn was warmer than all of them from 1948 until autumn of 1995.

November 2025 was a mild month in #London with average temperature of 9.6C +1.2C above 1991-2020 average. It could have been much more extreme. The first half was record breaking "warm" the second half overall was colder than average.

Cold shot after cold shot in much of 🇨🇦🇺🇸 whilst UK/Europe is set to see unusually mild temperatures into next week. Bah humbag.

As I'll be leaving the country shortly, I have produced my end of week forecast blog ahead of schedule exclusively for patrons. #weatheraware www.patreon.com/posts/end-of...

Clear blue skies across most of England and remaining fog lifting. Far SE coasts being plagued by heavy showers. More fluid patterns can be preferable in autumn/winter over the static high pressure gloom we have often seen. (1/2)

UK electricity prices rising again in January when wholesale gas price is lowest in wintertime since early 2021. Pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine. We’re getting fleeced!

In case you missed it, I issued my winter forecast yesterday there’s quite a lot of intrigue with this one. Keen to hear your thoughts.

It did feel mild today, however, this time next week it will be 5C warmer! Long drawn SW’ly into early next week the Azores high pressure influence mainly going south of UK. The first half of Dec will clearly carry a strong mild surplus and is cementing 2025 as new warmest year on record. (1/2)

Bella is not amused I disturbed her during 🐭 hunt 😬

Early instrumental climate reconstructions (pre-1850) struggle with sparse measurements and have large uncertainties. But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period. Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since. 1/

After yesterday’s dreary gloom total 180 today gorgeous winter sunshine heading towards noon. Showers though moving ashore across southern coastal counties ruining the sunshine.

London stations reporting 11C at 10pm not really appropriate in December and a mild breezy south wind. Winds easing overnight.

I’m pleased to share my 2025/26 winter forecast with you all. You might need a lie down afterwards…. Note the forecast is not all UK/Europe centric - possibly of interest for 🇨🇦🇺🇸 Please like and share! www.patreon.com/posts/winter...

Hours from December, isn’t that crazy? The first week of meteorological winter in Northern Hemisphere is marked by overheating continents. North America appears lonely with temperatures significantly below average in Northern Plains. (1/2)

Latest UKMO looking quite wedgy in medium term height rises near Greenland and Scandinavia - lows struggling to get east of UK and getting disrupted SE. This is not your typical Atlantic led pattern. We’ll see what happens but the outlook is more mouldable than some are implying.

My latest examination of the week ahead weather exclusively for patrons. Promotion offer ends today.... www.patreon.com/posts/144725...

Early access to my winter forecast is now available to my patrons. Approx 2,500 words so quite the mouthful... For the commoners 😉 the release will be early next week. If you don't want to wait, it can be unlocked for £3 that's minimum it allows me. www.patreon.com/posts/144614...

Sunny Sunday 😎 Enjoy it… quite the contrast tomorrow morning under outbreaks of rain. Monday will be much less wetter than original forecasts at least further SE. Only 5mm forecast in London with the afternoon expected to be largely dry. Still grey!

Work has started on my 2025/26 winter forecast. This is how I’m spending my Friday night 🤓

Certainly with Sunday’s sunny forecast November 2025 will surpass October for sunshine. This is a notable feat with increasingly very short days. Sunshine record have been kept since 1957 at London Heathrow, only one other year this has happened and that was 20 years ago in 2005.

London is one of hot spots of Europe tonight. Balmy late November night. Very few places are warmer, a Greek island perhaps….

We see a rebound in strength of the stratospheric polar vortex over next 1-2 weeks, which encourages westerly zonality in early December, but growing suggestion any strengthening to SPV is likely to be brief & at best will meet the average. (1/2)

A detailed look at the weekend weather for subscribers. The ugly and the good. It’s a good time to become a patron, exclusive early access to my winter forecast - soon! And sale is running not for much longer. www.patreon.com/posts/144535...

Significantly milder this morning some places in West Mids are over 18C warmer than this time yesterday! Shawbury for example very frosty -5.6C yesterday morning this morning 13C! Huge leap.

🥶 Interesting that November 2025 will be frostiest November since 2010 in London #Heathrow following a record warm first half.

A clear, cold and frosty start to tomorrow morning…. judging by the westerly driven outlook, it might be the last in a while.

Heading through rest of Nov & early December the pattern is clearly zonal 🌧️💨 (+NAO) there are robust signs of subtropical ridge influence into 2nd week of Dec, this would likely result in even milder temperatures in UK/Europe while possibly drier. (1/3)

Would you believe me.... if I said 2025 is likely to become the warmest year on record? 2022 is the current record year. The year which featured 40C for the first time, right at the end a rather cold December. It would be imperative we avoid a mild Dec.

First and the last day this week it has crept into double figures in London. The cold spell continues strongly in central Europe and separately exceptional cold wave in N Scandinavia. Far southeast is exceptionally warm in Turkey #Istanbul temperatures reached 21C (70F) this afternoon.

Following a much colder week we see the weather become more autumnal again. This week ahead forecast blog is only for patrons. www.patreon.com/posts/144219...

It is the first time since 1960s #Paris has seen a layer of snow in November in 2 successive years! Quite notable in this era.

Our earlier rain is giving widespread snowfall in France tonight. The warm front will turn snow to rain overnight but large areas will see 1-5cm before that.

Not pretty! Heaviest rain affecting N London/Herts 🌧️🌧️

The difference in a day!

Some quite heavy rain is moving eastwards across Southern England about an hour from London!

After yesterday’s brilliant blue skies we’ve fallen back with a bump, more typical conditions what you expect this time of year. White capped Alps / Pyrenees being well highlighted this afternoon following recent snowfall - excellent skiing conditions ☀️❄️⛷️

Beautiful capture of snow cover over the Pennines and Lake District fells from #NASA Terra satellite. Oh to be up in the hills on a day like this!

We continue losing daylight for next 30 days! Still a month to go.

London Heathrow's annual frost number days (1949-2025*) where minimum temperature falls below 0C (32F). Currently, 2025 stands at 26 days with still December to come, this is above recent decadal average. It has felt like a frostier year, but certainly an element of shifting baseline syndrome.

Cold Friday evening many places in south and east already subzero. Frost will thaw by dawn with cloud and light rain approaching. Still chilly highs of 7C in London, a more notable warm up will occur next Thursday with temps in the teens…

Stunning blue sky day in London the bluest skies I’ve seen in a long time. In deep November something to be savoured! #Rotherhithe #Docklands

Clear blue skies to start Friday and cold! A bit more of a breeze in SE generally kept temps a little less cold. It was also coldest night of ‘winter’ preliminary minimum of -11.7C (11F) at Loch Glascanoch in N Scotland 🥶

Snow flurries to east of London a more significant blob currently around Peterborough drifting SSW. #uksnow

Warm ish 18.3C last Thursday compared with 4.4C today, fall of 14C in 1 week! Certainly dramatic #London

Spot the snow in parts of Northern Ireland, England and Scotland

The high temperature today at London Heathrow was 4.4C (40F) this is decently cold for mid November. Around 7C below average. It is lowest maximum for November 20th in 40 years at LHR where on this day in 1985, it was 3.4C. 1985 was also coldest November on record (1948-).