Not as marked as GFS ensembles, however, we also see Euro ensemble the best performing model guidance now gravitate to a long lived cold scenario. As we approach final week of January. I’m expecting it to go further in coming days unlike previous cold spell it appears to be behind curve... (1/2)

The coming weeks look fascinating from a meteorological perspective. Most including myself at start of winter felt quite cynical about February winter weather in W Europe. La Niña winters have a greater tendency to become more 🌧️ and milder later on. With a stratospheric polar vortex to date… (1/3)

Certainly a prolonged cold spell signal within 12z GEFS occurring during coldest weeks of year. There is clearly not minor potential for a significant spell of cold and wintry weather in height of winter. I’d suggest to watch the forecast more closely going forward.

The mist is finally starting to clear this Sunday on ECMWF, UKMO & GFS the original big 3 all singing from similar hymn sheet. Low pressure disrupting south into France and a cold easterly fetch to end this week. In terms of potential ❄️ that is more relevant into next week. However… (1/2)

Home. Grey as ever…. Mild too 10C not feeling like midwinter.

Flying over Brecon Beacons, S Wales.

Good morning from 35,000ft exiting Canadian airspace now - hitting speeds of 693 mph (1,115 km/h). Fast!

About to take off from from a wintry JFK ❄️✈️ strong upper winds west to east aka jet stream off eastern North America. Flight time estimated 5 hours 30m saving 3 hours from westbound journey!

Not a definitive forecast but I’d say it’s shifting that way. Next week is looking predominately unsettled and on milder side, but then increasing cold by end of next weekend from east with chance of snow anywhere. #ukweather

Of course!

The city that never sleeps, it has though pleasantly surprised me #nyc

Final night in #nyc a more substantial spell of snow will arrive tomorrow AM and then a lull with more in evening. Widely 2-4” of snow is expected, it will make my 9pm flight at JFK interesting 😅

Packing it down in West Village seems like an overachiever. #nyc

Someone on twatter said there is no Russian cold to bring cold easterly 👀 Next Saturday temperatures are expected to be 15C below average in Russia in depths of winter. Frigid.

First snow in #nyc 😀 Potential for minor accumulations in city later this afternoon with this system which has trended snowier at last minute.

Tonight’s sunset in #nyc

Mmm traditional GFS makes a massive shift to its AI counterpart see at day 7 with previous previous run. Very cold easterlies on forward march across Europe.

Likely turning colder later next week. Interesting in 06z GEFS about one third bring significantly cold conditions to London daytime highs below freezing. Unusual to see that with this lead time, something I’ve not seen in a while….

Benefit of being in America the 00z model runs are not at silly hour just passed midnight. Full blown easterly seems inevitable on latest GFS at day 6…

Picturesque midwinter day in Central Park just missing a layer of snow #nyc

Can’t say I’m missing the weather at home. Bracing wind in NYC but blue skies.

Increasingly cold and wintry easterlies on AI ECMWF model almost too seamless to be believed!

Rare in 21st century to see simultaneous areas of significant cold modelled in N America and across Eurasia. Widespread cold across continents the planetary temp anomaly will crash. This also occurring in late January when climatology supports coldest weather of winter. (1/2)

Great views from Brooklyn Bridge on this bluebird day - throughly enjoying my time. #nyc

One World Trade Centre gleaming in winter sunshine ☀️ Chilly in shade earlier but sun strength surprisingly warm near midday had to remove coat. At similar latitude to Madrid 🇪🇸 at just over 40N #nyc

Striking model output changes 48 hours ago to now. GFS op went from wet and windy weekend to now something much calmer and cooler. Radical change.

GFS 06z well that would work 😀

There’s been big changes as early as this weekend we’ve flipped from an unsettled westerly flow to a colder/drier continental flow. It won’t be that cold at least initially but certainly seasonal.

Rainy afternoon back at home in SE England. Blue skies to greet day in NYC and 3C the wind does bite here though probably helped by funnelling of high rise buildings.

Major high latitude blocking is expected to develop into next week. Our most recent cold spell developed from height rises in N Atlantic/Greenland and low heights in Scandinavia, so a very different configuration. For snow fans in S/SE UK this will be of greater interest w/potential for 🥶 E flows.

Hello from Tribeca, New York City 🇺🇸

Posting from 10,000ft next stop 🇺🇸! My first time over there 😊

Interesting enthusiasm from overnight GFS & ECM for cold easterlies into early next week. We’ve seen blocking wane and unsettled weather take hold this week, but it could only be short lived.

Good morning from London Heathrow ✈️ the temperature is 10C! Still icy cold across most of Europe it’s -11C in Berlin 🇩🇪 but a thaw is coming. It was 3 weeks ago previous time we saw double figures. A lengthy stretch.

Much warmer Atlantic air pushing in. I can’t say it feels it that strengthening southerly breeze is cold with squally rain bands moving on eastwards.

Latest look at the week ahead #ukweather for patrons the cold spell is now coming to an end but what will come next? This and more in this blog. www.patreon.com/posts/147921...

Dense freezing fog could become a problem this evening in SE with effectively no wind and air close to saturation. The wind will freshen from south during Sunday morning, so I do not expect fog to linger and it will turn less cold by dawn.

Atlantic mobility quickly running out of steam into next weekend on 12z UKMO. Note also Siberian high showing signs of retrogression backing west towards Scandinavia this idea is not isolated. The next chase we look for chance of colder easterlies in final third of January. (1/2)

Major deep freeze in Northern Europe….. “The first 10 days of the year saw a mean temperature below -30°C (!!) in Muonio 🇫🇮, by far the coldest start of the year in its (short) measurement history.” @Daaanvdb

Next week sees a more mobile Atlantic pattern which has been amiss in recent weeks. The jet stream will often be south of UK so temperatures are unlikely to be particularly mild. Rain however quite widespread and frequent but also brighter weather mixed in.

Cold spell is on borrowed time on Sunday night we will be back to double figures but Sunday will start 🥶 and ice will be a major hazard. Last time not in single figures was 22nd December in London that will be a stretch of 20 days. Sadly quite notable nowadays we have to go back to 2020/21 winter.

The far S of England (excluding Cornwall) really dodged a bullet last night. A 132mph gust was observed just over channel in Cherbourg Peninsula in Normandy. The concerning thing also how poorly forecast the intensity of storm until the day itself, and in some cases still didn’t go far enough.

I suspect models are understating snow risk late Friday through early Saturday with tonight's low expected to linger near Netherlands into weekend this draws in colder air from NE. We see a quite cold northerly flow with easterly component which will help push showers further inland... (1/2)

My end of week forecast is now available to patrons tonight through early tomorrow we observe #stormgorreti a multi-hazard system pushing eastwards through south coast. A complex low with severe gales, heavy rain and snow. Become a patron to discover more.... www.patreon.com/posts/end-of...

It does look highest ground of SE will see a covering of snow over Friday morning. Chilterns at greatest risk. In London I would say wet falling snow has a 50/50 risk it could only go as far as sleet. The freezing level will not be particularly high around 300m from Friday 6am… (1/2)

4C and pouring cold rain. Delightful. #London

#StormGorreti I do not like the look of you….. its Scorpion tail will very shortly blast the Isles of Scilly with 100mph winds. All on island should now be sheltered in safe place. Those in west Cornwall all preparations should be completed and take immediate shelter.

Concerning prognosis in the coming hours in far SW with severe NW’ly gales from just after 6pm in west Cornwall. Forecast models with 90-100mph winds even if winds are not as strong, it will still cause significant disruption and damage. (1/3)

A miserable afternoon this rainy weather is in for remainder of day. Saying that these days have been usually sparse in recent weeks. Precip currently all rain but it will be turning wintry on high ground of Wales. Moving later into the evening this will start transitioning more widely… (1/2)

Amber wind warning has in recent minutes been escalated to Red the highest severe weather warning in the far southwest #Cornwall Active from 4-11pm tonight “Storm Goretti will bring a period of exceptionally strong NW’ly winds to the Isles of Scilly and parts of Cornwall on Thursday evening (1/2)